Tag Archives: CSIS

Roundup: A possible reluctant partial briefing

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Because we’re stuck on this story, the Globe and Mail has heard that Pierre Poilievre has now said that he will accept a briefing if CSIS has any particular concerns about his caucus or party—but that’s it! Nothing more, because he keeps falsely insisting that his hands would be tied, when they actually wouldn’t be. Nevertheless, there is more to intelligence than just CSIS, and the NSICOP report is drawn from various sources, who sometimes disagreed with one another, and that matters in this kind of thing too, so it is baffling why Poilievre keeps insisting on tying his own hands.

Meanwhile, Jagmeet Singh was on Power & Politics to discuss his reading of the classified version of the report, and it was just more evasion and going around in circles rather than answering anything, and some of this was the continued attempt to take shots at the Liberals and Conservatives without actually spelling out what he thought should have done differently. He did say that the Liberals should keep Han Dong out of caucus, but that was as much as he would say, but kept insisting that the government has done nothing, but couldn’t say what they should do, or even acknowledged that there wasn’t really actionable intelligence that they could have acted upon, so again, what has really been the point? Incidentally, Elizabeth May does say that she is just as concerned about what is in the report as Singh, but her relief was that there were not current MPs implicated, which Singh won’t even say.

The only smart thing that Singh has said to date is that he isn’t going to pull the plug on the government over this because it would make no sense to go to an election if there are still questions about how it might be interfered with. To that end, they are in the process of passing the Elections Act updates, and the foreign interference bill, which should hopefully provide new tools to combat any attempted interference. Once those are passed and implemented it’ll probably get us closer to the fixed election date, so that may be the one thing that keeps the Supply and Confidence Agreement going until then.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukraine shot down seven of eleven Russian drones targeting critical infrastructure on Friday. Ukraine has been adopting an “elastic” defensive posture while they wait for the arrival of more western weapons to shrink the munitions gap between Russia and them. Vladimir Putin said he would call a ceasefire if Ukraine turned over the four regions his forces partly occupy plus forswear any NATO membership in the future, which Ukraine flatly rejected. The International Criminal Court is investigating Russian cyberattacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure as potential war crimes.

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Roundup: Anecdotes about emigration

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It was a CBC story that caught the attention of Pierre Poilievre, and which his deputy leader brought up in Question Period, being one centred around census data showing a growing number of Canadians who are relocating to the US, and which tries to focus the attention on those who insist that they’re moving because Justin Trudeau has been so terrible. But this is also a story from a particular usual suspect, so it’s thinly sourced and written by a certain usual suspect who had a habit of this kind of sloppy work (and no, it’s not because he has any particular political agenda—it’s because he thinks he’s being edgy and that he’s tackling “big” things, even though he’s been relatively terrible about it.

To be clear, the story has no breakdown in the data to show much of anything useful about just who is moving, particularly from certain age groups and demographics, nor where they are moving to. This could be a case of retiring Boomers heading to Arizona and Florida and saying farewell to Canadian winters for good, but we don’t know. It does point out that a third of those who emigrate to the US were themselves Americans by birth returning home, and less than a third are immigrants to Canada from elsewhere who have since decided to move to the US, but for some of them, that could have been their plan all along. One of the profiled couples are fairly young and say that housing prices are an issue, but given how restrictive their immigration policies are, it’s hard to see how that many people are able to move just because housing is cheaper. This could also be a largely Ontario-driven phenomenon, but again, we have no breakdown in the data.

This is a big issue, but there is no attempt to get more clarity in the data. Instead, the focus is on getting anecdotes about how they hate Trudeau and want to move because of it, which is both an attempt to make this a federal story instead of a provincial housing one (and the usual suspect writing this piece has a history of doing that), but also because he thinks it’s going to get attention to the piece, and that’s exactly what it did, no matter how thin those anecdotes are, and the plural of anecdotes is not data. We shouldn’t need to remind a reporter at the gods damned public broadcaster of this fact, but things are off the rails there, and this is the kind of bullshit we get as a result.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian missiles hit three sites in Kharkiv overnight, as Ukrainian forces work to shoot down seven missiles and 32 drones. While Russians continue aerial attacks on Kharkiv, they have also increased their troop concentration in the region, looking like they will make a push toward the city. Word is coming out that president Joe Biden has quietly given the okay for Ukraine to use American-made and supplied weapons to strike military targets inside of Russia.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1796418752411840609

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Roundup: Responding to events isn’t a desperation move

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If you’ve been paying attention to Question Period over the past several days, you may have noticed that the Liberals haven’t been asking endless questions about abortion, or rather, asking the government to comment on the Conservatives’ stance about abortion. Throughout this, you had a bunch of pundits, almost all of them located outside of Ottawa, going “The Liberals are desperate! They’re using the abortion move 18 months too early!” The problem with that particular analysis is that it ignores the events going on around them.

What the Liberals were really doing, if someone bad bothered to pay attention, was responding to things the Conservatives have been doing around them. It started with Pierre Poilievre’s speech where he promised to use the Notwithstanding Clause to “make” tough-on-crime policies and laws “constitutional” (never mind that invoking the Notwithstanding Clause is a flashing red light that what you’re doing isn’t constitutional, and you’re doing to do it anyway—at least for the next five years, anyway. The Liberals were not going to pass up an opportunity to ask Poilievre just what else he planned to use those powers for, which is a perfectly reasonable thing to ask.

From there, Arnold Viersen tabled his petition calling for abortion restrictions, and the March for Life happened on the same week, which the Liberals (and usually the NDP) always put on a big production in Question Period about how important a woman’s right to choose is. This all happened within a few days, so of course they were going to respond to it. And once those events happened, they moved onto other things (like lambasting Poilievre’s “housing” bill). Not everything is a desperation move. They talked about abortion back in December when the Conservatives swapped a bill so that Cathay Wagantall’s backdoor abortion-banning bill could be voted on before they rose for the winter break (so it wouldn’t act as a millstone around their necks, even though the entire caucus voted for it), and everyone wasn’t insisting this was some kind of desperation move then. The moral here is that sometimes you need to pay attention to what is going on around Question Period, because it’s not the only thing going on.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukraine shot down 13 out of 14 drones launched by Russia on Monday night, with most of the debris falling on the Rivne region. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was in Belgium to sign another security agreement.

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Roundup: Hoping to master the algorithm

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As I often rail about terrible government communications and Parliament being reduced to a content studio for social media clips, I was struck by two stories over the weekend. The first was a look into the Liberals’ trying to use social media more effectively to bring back Millennial and Gen Z voters, which means staffers are directing their ministers to tailor content more specifically to these platforms, and ministers using influencers more to get their messages across. While I’m less concerned about the latter because I do think that can be helpful and savvy, it’s the former that concerns me more because we have too many politicians chasing the algorithm as it is, and the algorithm is bad and fickle. If you listen to Aaron Reynolds of Effin’ Birds fame talk about using social media to build his business, he will warn that tailoring your business to specific algorithms is doomed to fail because those algorithms change and can wipe you out, and politicians chasing the algorithm is not only cringe-worthy, it’s frankly bad for media literacy and democracy in general.

The other story was that Conservative MP Branden Leslie produced a Facebook video chock-full of fake news clips that purport to show a future where Trudeau has resigned, but amidst the complaints that using news branding for this kind of deep-fake content is problematic and deeply unethical, Conservatives are defending it as perfectly justified because “nobody could mistake it for reality.” This from the party that is actively building a dystopian alternate reality built on disinformation for their followers to believe in, because they want them to forgo things like critical thinking in order to simply swallow whatever falsehoods the party wants to tell them, and now they’re asserting that people won’t be taken by the very falsehoods this video perpetuates, after they have been training that same audience to swallow falsehoods? Sorry, but you can’t have it both ways. This is nothing good, and a sign that there is no moral compass in the party whatsoever.

Throughout this, I am reminded of something Paul Wells said last week that really struck a chord with me:

I think the social-media revolution has constrained government’s attempts to explain themselves, and radicalized citizens’ responses, more than it’s helped anyone do anything good. And I think most political organizations’ attempts to master these tools end up looking like the tools are, quite thoroughly, mastering the organizations.

This is exactly right, and it’s why I worry that the Liberals trying to push more to social media to reach those Gen-Zers is going to make this actively worse, while the Conservatives are already using the worst features of these platforms to their most unethical extent. This is the state of political communications these days, and it’s very, very scary, and it’s dragging democracy down with it.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russians bombed a big box store complex in Kharkiv on Saturday, killing 14, wounding 43, with 16 others still unaccounted for, even though Ukrainian forces are pushing them back from areas outside of the city.

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Roundup: Ford’s $600 million choices

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You might be excused if you were given the impression that things are going so well in Ontario right now that the government is spending its precious time and resources on the pressing need of…getting beer and wine into corner stores. Well, Doug Ford has decided that, in any case, and that he’s willing to pay out hundreds of millions in order to compensate the Beer Store—a conglomerate owned by the major breweries—for breaking their monopoly even earlier than he had planned to, to the tune of $225 million, with a possible $375 million in additional fees being rebated, meaning that this move could cost the treasury as much as $600 million.

So, to recap—that’s $225 million, but probably really $600 million, that could have gone toward something like keeping rural emergency rooms from having to close on weekends because they lack sufficient staff; it could have gone toward reforming how primary-care physicians are compensated so that they aren’t fleeing the field; it could have gone toward fixing the shortfalls in the early learning and child care programme that this government has caused by under-investment; or shoring up shelters housing asylum seekers; or really, any number of things that will actually have a meaningful impact on the lives of people in this province. But no, it’s going to pay these conglomerates.

Priorities.

Ukraine Dispatch:

While visiting Kharkiv, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that Ukraine now has “combat control” over the region after nearly two weeks of Russians trying to make advances.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1793904060535636362

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Roundup: Five sitting weeks remain

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The final five weeks of the spring sitting of the House of Commons begins today, and it’s going to be raucous, and ugly, and exhausting. The government has  a tonne of bills they need to pass, starting with the implementation for the fall economic statement (no, seriously, it still hasn’t passed), pharmacare, the bill to ban replacement workers, the online harms bill, and maybe the foreign-agent registry, before we even get to the budget implementation bill. It’s a lot, and it will depend on the cooperation of the NDP (and possibly the Bloc) to come to agreements on time allocation for those bills, because the Conservatives will do everything they can to slow them up.

In the middle of this will be the Conservatives continued use of committees for dog-and-pony shows about ArriveCan, the Winnipeg Lab documents, or any other particular witch-hunts the Conservatives want to pursue, and on most of these committees, the NDP and Bloc are game to play along, because they are still keen to embarrass the government at every opportunity, whether the subject is within the remit of that committee or not. Because that’s what Parliament is these days—a content factory for social media.

The lever that the government has is the ability to call midnight sittings, and why that matters is because we have a shortage of interpreters, which means they can’t cover both the midnight sittings and all of the committee meetings, so the Conservatives will need to start making choices—do they want to talk bills to death in the House of Commons, or do they want to hold their committee dog-and-pony shows? This is what things are going to boil down to, so we’ll see how well Steve MacKinnon can wield this power.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces still control about 60 percent of the village of Vovchansk, near Kharkiv, with the fighting being describe as being house-to-house. Ukrainian forces downed all 29 Russian drones launched on Monday night, and all 37 drones launched on Sunday night. At least eleven civilians have been killed in the outskirts of Kharkiv as Russians continue their advance, shelling civilian targets along the way. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy did an interview with Reuters, in which he called out the Americans in particular for being a year late with their assistance, especially around air defences.

https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1792157706737868830

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Roundup: Wildfire evacuations have begun

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It’s absolutely insane to think that it’s not even Victoria Day, and we are in the middle of evacuations in northern communities because of wildfires. Several neighbourhoods in Fort McMurray, Alberta, have been evacuated—all neighbourhoods that were decimated by the fires in 2016. Fort Nelson, BC, has been evacuated, as has Cranberry Portage, Manitoba, while the premier toured the area.

Meanwhile in BC, a former forestry minister has co-authored a report calling for better integrated government management of these fires in the province, but also points to things like the plans for Indigenous communities to do controlled burns as they used to have not reached levels that would be meaningful, nor have “broadcast burns” from forestry companies, and recommendations for how forestry can better leave sites less susceptible to fire are not being implemented. One has to wonder what the delay is considering how much worse wildfire season gets every year.

Amidst all of this, we still see certain political parties steadfastly refuse to believe this is the result of climate change, and will instead say things like “the carbon price didn’t prevent a single fire” as though that’s how the price is designed to operate, or you have them spreading the conspiracy theories that agents of the prime minister have been setting these fires, because reasons. It’s not good.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukraine’s forces have pulled back in two new positions near Kharkiv as the Russians advance. Russians conducted air strikes on residential areas of Kharkiv. There is speculation that the move on Kharkiv is merely a ploy to pull forces from elsewhere on the front lines, as they have more of an interest in solidifying their gains in Donetsk. AP spent some time with a drone unit in the region, working to slow the Russian advance.

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Roundup: MPs lacking a moral compass make up bizarre accusations

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When it comes to the absolute moral decline of MPs in the current Parliament, we’ve found a good candidate who exemplifies this in the form of Conservative MP Brad Redekopp, who put out an absolutely batshit crazy video a few days ago that literally blames Justin Trudeau and his supposed “soft on crime” policies for the murders that happened in Saskatoon so far this year. Columnist Phil Tank points to all of the ways that this accusation is batshit insanity by looking at the circumstances of each of these murders, and you really can’t connect them to any of Trudeau’s policies, but that won’t stop Redekopp from not only making these accusations, but defending them in the face of Tank’s column.

The accusations against the so-called “attack” against him (because heaven forfend, we hold him to account for his batshit insane conduct) as being from an “extremist left-wing agenda,” and that both the columnist and Justin Trudeau want to hand out free drugs. I would laugh at how absolutely childish this thin-skinned retaliation is if this wasn’t a gods damned elected official who should not only know better, but should have the ability to take criticism, and to behave in a manner that is somewhat dignified as befits his office.

But it’s more than that—it’s the fact that he feels like he can get away with outright lying (and lying to such batshit insane lengths) because he feels no sense of shame or moral compass that says “Maybe you shouldn’t lie or make up batshit insane accusations and stick to some facts in the face of tragic circumstances.” But he doesn’t, and that is perhaps most concerning out of all of this.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian strikes have damaged several power generation plants in a fresh round of targeting them. Ukrainian artillery forces need to fire and then quickly hide their platforms from Russian drones. Ukrainian intelligence says that they thwarted (another) attempt on President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s life.

https://twitter.com/rustem_umerov/status/1787917915460649244

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Roundup: Singh’s sad display of performative toughness

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In a Parliament that is mired in some of the worst theatrics imaginable, it’s hard to think about something that could possibly take the cake, and yet, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh certainly tried with his sad, pathetic performance over the weekend. To wit: The government started debate on the pharmacare legislation at the end of last week, and Conservative MP Stephen Ellis put forward a “reasoned amendment” at the bill be killed at second reading for *handwaves* reasons. Singh would not stand for this, so he…wrote a strongly worded letter, and threatened the Conservatives that he would not stand for delays. And then put out some press releases to show how tough he was in sending that strongly-worded letter. And lo, the deadline he gave the Conservatives to withdraw their amendment came to pass, and wouldn’t you just know it—nothing happened.

The thing with these “reasoned amendments” is that the Conservatives are now moving them on every piece of legislation because it essentially adds time to the clock, which they can use to then run out the clock, again and again, blocking the ability for the government to get more legislation through the process. It’s a tactic that is supposed to be used as a last resort for very serious matters, but it’s being used routinely now, because this is who the Conservatives are, and they will do absolutely anything to keep the government from moving on its agenda. There is a lot that could be written about the absolute degrees of procedural warfare that has taken place over the last few years that have bogged the government and its agenda down entirely, but I’ll get around to it at a later date.

Suffice to say, this is just one more example of Singh making himself (and his party) irrelevant. He keeps pretending he’s going to be tough on the government for their budgets, and then goes along with them (per the Supply and Confidence Agreement). After each song and dance, he swallows himself whole, and then pats himself on the back for how much he accomplished in that budget (never mind that the NDP did absolutely none of the work, but still take full credit for everything). This attempt to “threaten” the Conservatives is just yet more sad spectacle, and it showcases just ineffective he really is.

Ukraine Dispatch:

The Russian drone attack on the power facilities in Sumy region wound up cutting power to 400,000 consumers. Russian forces claim to have taken control of two more villages—Soloviove, and Kotliarivka, and Ukrainian bloggers appear to corroborate this claim.

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Roundup: Trying to set up a dog and pony show for Carney

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Because everything is stupid, the Conservatives have announced that they will move a motion at finance committee to call on Mark Carney to appear in order to…talk about his plans as future Liberal leader? Oh, man. It’s so stupid that it hurts. “Since he’s attempting to get as much media attention as possible, he should welcome the Conservative invitation to appear at Committee,” the press release read, which is an indication of how unserious and stupid this is. When asked by media about the invitation that hasn’t come, Carney said that since this was made in the media before the motion was even moved shows that this is just theatre, which of course it is. This is about gathering clips of him criticising the current government wherever possible, or of the Conservative MPs badgering and hectoring him, because they think that’s going to be gold for them online. And there is nothing for Carney to be gained here either—there is no winning against this kind of “debate me, bro!” mentality because it’s not a debate, but an exercise in being caught out, and the only way to get out ahead is to not play.

I’m really not sold on the notion that Carney is positioning himself for a leadership run, particularly at this point in time, and frankly he would be a very, very bad choice. Setting aside the fact that as a former central bank governor, he should stay the hell away from electoral politics for the sake of his successors, there are certain organizational things you need to have to have any kind of chance in politics and I’ve seen no evidence he has this or has been building this. Other Cabinet ministers have been (and have allegedly been warned to tone it down). That, and I’ve talked to people who worked with him before and they’re not of the opinion he’d have the temperament for the job, while the Liberals should see this as Ignatieff 2.0 and run far away from it.

This aside, this is just such a waste of finite time and resources for the committee. Committees are supposed to be doing the serious work of Parliament (as opposed to the theatrical parts in Question Period), and this is a signal that there is no interest in committee work being serious, but only being more theatre and content generation for social media, and that is an appalling state of affairs for our democracy.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian missiles have struck Ukrainian power facilities in three regions, while air attacks on the Sumy region killed two. Russians have also been targeting rail lines in order to disrupt incoming US aid shipments. Meanwhile, two hospitals in Kyiv have been evacuated after comments made by Belarusian KGB officials who claim that those hospitals house soldiers, which could make them targets in coming air strikes.

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