Roundup: The same government, not a new one

The final results of the BC election started rolling in as the absentee ballots were counted, and lo, it looks like the NDP managed to flip one seat in the final tally, making it a 47-44-2 tally NDP/Conservative/Greens. And while that’s all well and good, the way in which major media outlets described this was a gods damned tragedy, and I was about to lose my mind.

No, the NDP are not going to “form government,” because they are already the government. Only the legislature changes. No, the Lieutenant-Governor didn’t ask Eby to form government, her statement explicitly said “David Evy advised me that he is prepared to continue as premier.” Because she doesn’t sit around waiting to make a decision—she acts on advice, and he never resigned, so he is not forming anything. He will be shuffling his Cabinet, but it’s the same government that carries over to another legislature. That’s it, and it’s a really big problem when neither the national wire service of the national public broadcaster couldn’t actually read what she wrote, and instead wrote their copy based on a falsehood and changed her words to suit their wrong meaning.

Additionally, because I am going to get pedantic here, there is also no such thing as a “majority government” or a “minority government.” Government—meaning Cabinet—is government. What changes is whether they control a majority or minority of the legislature. The legislature is not government. What matters is whether the same government is able to maintain the confidence of the chamber, which is much easier to do when you have a majority of the seats. The fact that Eby has managed to secure a razor-thin majority of those seats means that he has essentially ensured that he can maintain that confidence (though the Speaker issue could remain tricky). But my gods, could our media outlets have a modicum of civic literacy? It’s not only embarrassing that they don’t, but it’s outright dangerous for democracy going forward.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian air attacks killed four in Kyiv and four in Kharkiv, where they also shattered a historic building and celebrated landmark. Critical infrastructure was also damaged in two regions in the north of Ukraine, leading to more power outages.

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Roundup: A tight election, but no change in government

It looks like it’s a tight finish in BC’s election, and that there won’t be clear winners in some of the most contested ridings until later in the week, but right now it’s sitting at 46-45-2 NDP/Conservative/Green. And because a lot of people are civically illiterate, they need to be reminded that a) The NDP are still the government and David Eby is still the premier because he hasn’t resigned, and no, the lieutenant governor is not sitting around waiting for the results to declare who will form government. That’s not how the system works.

Eby will meet the legislature, whenever that happens, and his ability to maintain the confidence of the Chamber will be tested, and there will likely be some kind of supply and confidence agreement with the Green Party, but the real question is going to be who is going to put up a Speaker, because this could change the dynamics if there are no changes once the results are finalized. The Conservatives are unlikely to want to do so, and the NDP might order their caucus to refuse, leaving a situation where nobody comes forward, paralyzing the legislature. If that lasts longer than six months, that could trigger another election. (This was already a drama in BC after another election a few years ago, when the BC Liberals basically tied, and eventually one of their number broke ranks to run for Speaker, then Christy Clark lost a confidence vote, the LG refused her another election, and the NDP formed a government with Green support).

This having been said, I have already seen certain progressive types on social media declaring that if the Greens don’t use their kingmaker status in this legislature to push for electoral reform, they might as well not bother to exist. I’m unsure about the logic there because just what kind of electoral reform, and do they really think that ramming it through in a partisan manner in a minority legislature without consensus is going to work against them, and that the Conservatives won’t run in the next election howling about how the evil NDP changed the rules for their own benefit? BC is dealing with the far-right being *this* close to being in power (and make no mistake—the BC Conservative Party is a far-right party, and thus far it looks like four of their elected MLAs were previous People’s Party candidates). Giving them any ammunition is a Very Bad idea, and no, electoral reform won’t save you from the far-right. In fact, it might just wind up enabling them.

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1848007688417919426

Ukraine Dispatch

Russians have been targeting Kyiv with drones for a second night in a row. They hit Kryvhi Rih with a ballistic missile attack that injured 17, while they also claim to have shot down over a hundred Ukrainian drones on Sunday, but Ukraine says they hit an airfield and an explosives factory in Russia. Military bloggers report fighting in the streets of Selydove.

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Roundup: Federal Court says Emergencies Act didn’t meet the threshold

The Federal Court ruled yesterday that the invocation of a public order emergency under the Emergencies Act didn’t actually meet the threshold for such a declaration. (Full decision here). As a result, some of the uses of emergency powers were overbroad, such as the curtailment of freedom of expression in clearing the occupation, or that the police just kind of made it up as they went along as they froze the bank accounts of the owners of trucks participating in the occupation (and really, only about 57 individuals were affected). The federal government declared immediately that they were going to appeal this decision, citing in part the fact that the public inquiry didn’t come to the same conclusion. While I have a full story coming out later today on this, it’s important to note that the ruling was fairly narrow and technical, rejected a number of the complainants that were part of it, and largely affects future invocations of the Act, having little effect on what happened (because we can’t turn back time).

Amidst the various reactions, revisionism certainly was on display among the talking heads over the course of the evening, who insisted that the government had more “surgical” tools they could have used instead of invoking the Act, erm, except no, they didn’t. The problem was that Doug Ford washed his hands of the whole thing, and eventually the federal government had no other option than to invoke the Act because nobody else was getting control of the situation. And the Conservatives? They are eating up this decision and spreading shitposts far and wide over their socials about how this was a condemnation of Trudeau, and how “divisive” he was, and so on. This feeds directly into their dystopian world-building where they are pretending that Trudeau is some kind of jackbooted dictator taking away people’s rights, when that’s explicitly not what happened here, or any reflection of our objective reality whatsoever. But they want to create the illusion that this is true for their believers, because when you can get them to stop believing in our objective reality, people are so much easier to manipulate.

In commentary, Emmett Macfarlane makes a reasoned case for disagreement with the decision which is well worth reading, while Paul Wells makes more of a case for this decision over the public inquiry, though I suspect he too falls a little into the trap of revisionism because the existing tools weren’t working precisely because Doug Ford refused to act.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian missile strikes on Kyiv and Kharkiv have killed 18 people, which Russia claims are all hits on the military-industrial complex. It is more likely that Russia is probing Ukraine’s defences for weakness as they suffer from shortages because Western arms manufacturers are slow to produce new ammunition and equipment, and the US’ budget deadlock is not helping matters any. On the front lines, the reliability of drones used by Ukrainian troops is of varying quality because many of them are cheaply and hastily assembled.

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Roundup: Warning signs of grassroots demise in Ontario

The Star profiles the four potential leadership candidates for the Ontario Liberal party, two of whom are sitting MPPs, the other two being sitting MPs, and I had a couple of observations. One is that the whole piece is framed in the absolutely toxic discourse of looking for a messiah to resurrect a party’s fortunes, which is one of the big problems in Canadian politics in the current era, and a big part of that is because we have devolved leadership contests into pseudo-presidential primaries, the result of which has been to hollow out parties and turn them into empty shells to be inhabited by leaders like hermit crabs. Those leaders turn that hollow shell of a party into a personality cult, until their time is done, and then the next leader does the same again. It’s also worth noting that the Ontario Liberals are currently one of the few remaining parties in the country that still used delegated conventions for the leadership—yes, a problem, but not as bad of one as one-member-one-vote systems. Of course, the article also derides delegated conventions as favouring “party elites,” which is a load of bullshit. Delegated conventions are better at engaging grassroots than OMOV because the riding associations need to get together to elect the delegates, who are then trusted to carry their wishes forward on subsequent ballots.

The other observation I see is that it largely glosses over the fact that the grassroots party in the province has crumbled, and many of its riding associations exist only on paper. This is absolutely shocking, because this is an admission that the party has completely failed in keep up the absolute basics of how our democratic system is structured. This is what leader-centric parties have led to, where the grassroots are seen only as votes for a leadership contest, donors, and a pool of volunteers at election time rather than the people who make up the party, who do the policy work, who run the nominations, and who do the work of accountability at the local level. The grassroots riding associations are supposed to be the interface between the riding and the caucus, especially in ridings that the party doesn’t hold currently. The fact that the party leadership (and I’m guessing Steven Del Duca most especially was part of the problem here) allowed things to atrophy this badly is a really worrying sign about the health of democracy in this province, but also this country generally because these trends are across parties and provinces, because we have failed to learn our lessons when it comes to the basics of civics. This is the kinds of things that people should have learned about in school (and why I wrote my book).

I will add that I would really prefer if the two MPs didn’t jump into this race, and that they stayed in Ottawa and did the work here rather than try to be saviours for the provincial party, especially because voices like Nathaniel Erskine-Smith are so necessary in Ottawa and being a “rogue” in the caucus, which I fear would be swamped and workshopped to death if he were to try to apply that to leadership. But maybe I’m just being cynical here.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 334:

Russian forces have increased shelling outside of their held territories in the East, particularly around Zaporizhzhia. The head of the Russian-occupied parts of Donetsk region says that he visited Soledar, which the Russians claim they captured but Ukraine still denies. Meanwhile, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with families of the victims from the helicopter crash earlier in the week. Zelenskyy is also promising further action to root out corruption, with key decisions coming this week, given that this continues to be one of the sticking points for Ukraine in joining with the European Union and other alliances. Elsewhere, here’s a look at how organisations are working to counter Russian disinformation about the war.

https://twitter.com/melnykandrij/status/1616832357826265091

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Roundup: Charles III’s first address

King Charles III made his first public address in his new role, and like his mother before him, pledged to serve for as long as he lives (sorry fantasists who think he’ll abdicate in favour of William). And this was addressed not only to the UK, but also to all of the realms where he is also King, and to the rest of the Commonwealth as well, even if he is not their head of state.

More of the ceremonial aspects of the transition takes place today, from the Accession Council in the UK, to the meeting of the Privy Council at Rideau Hall, where the Canadian Cabinet will make the accession declaration for the King of Canada.

https://twitter.com/Gray_Mackenzie/status/1568435618304098305

Meanwhile, I cannot get over the fact that Canadian media outlets cannot get the basic civics straight in the fact that Elizabeth II was the Queen of Canada, and Charles III is the King of Canada. The CBC in particular continues to treat the monarchy as a foreign curiosity rather than the very centre of our constitutional order. Occasionally they will cite that the Queen was Canada’s head of state, which is only true on a technicality, and outlets like The Canadian Press are making similar declarations. We’re a constitutional monarchy. I don’t know why this seems to be so difficult for mainstream media outlets to process and relay correctly. There should be no excuse for it, and yet when it matters, they are simply unable—or unwilling—to present the facts as they exist. It’s no wonder we’re in such trouble.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 198:

The Ukrainian counter-offensive continues to make slow and steady progress on various fronts, but that hasn’t stopped Russians from shelling cities like Bakhmut in the east, or Kharkiv in the north. Shelling also continues around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which continues to be on emergency power to run its cooling systems because repairs cannot be made to the power lines connecting it to the grid so long as the shelling continues. The International Atomic Energy Agency continues to call for a “safety zone” around the plant, but we know how well Russia abides by agreements.

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Roundup: Senate debate continues on emergency orders

The Senate spent the day debating the emergency orders, but did not reach a vote by end of day. (This doesn’t really meet the Act’s requirement that the order be debated “without interruption” either, much as the House of Commons’ Speaker made a bad ruling around statutory interpretation). We heard many of the same concerns from Conservative senators as from their Commons counterparts, and a lot of questions as to why the orders are still needed if the occupation in Ottawa and the border blockades are over, plus questions about the special committee of MPs and senators that the statute demands, and the fact that while they are probably going to be sworn to secrecy, it won’t have them sworn in like they would be for NSICOP, so they likely won’t get particularly sensitive intelligence. That committee was still being negotiated between the party leaders in the Commons and Senate caucus leaders last I heard, but is likely waiting for the Senate to confirm the emergency orders, before it can be established, and at this pace, the orders may be lifted by the time we get there. It is worth noting that the Government Leader in the Senate, Senator Marc Gold, spent some five hours answering questions from other senators, like he should be in this kind of a situation. It’s just too bad he’s not a member of Cabinet like he should be, because this is the kind of situation where that really matters.

Elsewhere, the Commons’ Finance committee heard from department officials about the freezing of the bank accounts of occupation organizers and some of its participants. It was reiterated once again that they did not have donor lists, the RCMP did not turn any over to banks, and that with the occupation ended, the RCMP was working with the banks to “unfreeze” those accounts, given that the whole point was to make it uncomfortable or difficult for them to remain. So what of the fictional “Briane” and other supposedly small-time donors for whom it is claimed that they had their accounts frozen? That it’s “very unlikely” they would be, given the data the banks are working with. Not that this has stopped the continued insistence that accounts are being seized (untrue) or frozen retroactively (also not true), not only from Conservative MPs, but also some talking heads and columnists acting credulously echoing these made-up allegations, because they are sold on the narrative that Trudeau wants to punish dissenters.

In the meantime, Rideau Hall to go to the extraordinary step of putting out a release to tell people to quit contacting them because they don’t have anything to do with a declaration of non-confidence in the government, despite what a disinformation meme going around social media claims as it encourages people to call them and demand a non-confidence vote. (Seriously, guys—only MPs can vote non-confidence). And to add to that, DND was flooded with calls demanding military protection to the occupiers from police, under the lunatic notion that they were part of some covert United Nations invasion force—because remember, this occupation was packed to the gills with conspiracy theorists. And going around social media were claims that the Sûreté du Québec officers (the provincial police force) were “proof” of New World Order forces because they had different uniforms and “didn’t speak English.” These occupiers are so credulous about such absolute nonsense, but refuse to believe in science, vaccines, civics, or democracy. It’s enough to make one despair about where we are headed as a society, especially as we have a political party that is desperate to earn their favour.

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Roundup: Some shocking civic illiteracy stats

I generally make it a policy not to talk about polls, but this one was just so disheartening that I feel the need to say something about it. Abacus Data asked a series of questions about federal government and governance, and it’s just…depressing to see the rate of responses that clearly show a lack of interest and a lack of education in how our system works.

These are the very basics of Responsible Government, and it’s important to understand what that means. But I recall that when I was in school, we talked about achieving Responsible Government as a recommendation in the Durham Report, and that Canada eventually got there, but they never explained what it actually meant, or what it entails in practical terms. And that’s a problem, especially when we are inundated with American popular culture about their politics, and their conception of how the UK’s system works (the rate of them who believe that absolute monarchy still exists is high. It’s very high) bleeds over to our popular understanding as well, and it’s a problem. That’s why I wrote The Unbroken Machine.

Some of these responses are simply an indication that people aren’t paying attention to the news, and that the way in which media communicates things can be unhelpful and confusing in how things are discussed. Abacus didn’t make sides for other questions in the survey, such as which level of responsibility does education fall under – which was better at 83 percent correctly answering that it falls under provincial jurisdiction, but again, this is the kind of ignorance that leaders like Jagmeet Singh like to exploit in order to drive cynicism. Civics education is vitally important, as is media literacy, and we are failing Canadians fundamentally because we refuse to teach them correctly in this country.

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Roundup: Yet another in a string of unforced errors

It is easy to imagine the thought process that Justin Trudeau engaged in about Truth and Reconciliation Day – that he didn’t want it to be about him. That he wanted it to be a day for Indigenous people to speak their truths, and for Canadians to listen. That he didn’t need to be front-and-centre, being the emoter-in-chief as he so often is. So best to attend the ceremony on the night before, and then get out of the way.

And yet, somehow, he managed to make it all about him once more, thanks to yet another unforced error, compounding his record of unforced errors. And while he said that he spent the day on the phone listening to survivors, he also got on a plane to Tofino, BC, to spend time with family post-election. And that dominated the news, and the political talk shows, because he couldn’t have waited one more day so it wouldn’t look like crass opportunism and like he was taking the day as a holiday as people were insisting that we not do. It should have been blindingly obvious, but this is a prime minister who has so many blind spots that begin and end with him thinking that so long as his intentions are good that it won’t matter in the end. And once again, because of this blind spot, he has made it all about him, and took the focus away from the importance of the day (though one could also note that reporters and TV hosts making the huge deal about it, and harping on it rather than noting it and moving on should also have known better).

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Roundup: Bracing for election night

With voting day just days away, we’re starting to see a few “reminder” stories about how our system works, so that we can have some reasonable expectations about what the outcomes might look like on Monday, and why it will mean things like the current government staying in place and having the first chance to test the confidence of the new Chamber once it’s been summoned. There is an interview with Emmett Macfarlane here about how any decision will unfold on Monday night and why Trudeau will remain prime minister until he chooses to resign, which is good. There is also a piece from the Canadian Press which maps out different scenarios about how the evening may play out and what these scenarios might mean.

The problem, of course, is that television news in this country is abysmal, and we’ll spend the night listening to inane banter that pretends that there is no sitting government (exacerbated by the fact that they are currently observing a convention that refers to the prime minister as the “Liberal leader” in order to have an exaggerated sense of “fairness” around his incumbent status), and they will throw around terms like “prime minister-elect” even though we don’t elect prime minister (it’s an appointed position) and the fact that if it is the incumbent – which it’s likely to be – he’s already the prime minister and won’t require an “-elect” or “-designate” title to go along with it. We’ll also no doubt hear talk about him getting a “mandate” even though that kind of thing is utterly incompatible with our system of government. And no matter how much people like me will call it out over social media, nobody will care, and they will continue to completely misinform people about our basic civics without any care in the world, because that’s the state of media in this country right now.

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Roundup: Paul’s disqualifying blunder

It was not a good day for civic literacy or basic constitutional knowledge on the campaign trail, as Green Party leader Annamie Paul suggested that the Governor General “reinvoke” Parliament to hold an emergency debate on the situation in Afghanistan, and worse, cited a section out of the Emergencies Act to make it happen, and my head nearly exploded from the sheer stupidity of it all.

First of all, and this is crucial – the Governor General does not have that power. She has already dissolved Parliament. She can’t un-dissolve it with the stroke of a pen, and there is no mechanism to “reinvoke” Parliament, not even under the Emergencies Act. Parliament has been dissolved. There is nothing to recall in order to hold a debate, which again, is a useless gesture in the current situation. The most that would happen is that MPs would read speeches into the record for about five hours, and that’s it. Paul is perfectly welcome to read a twenty-minute speech to the media if she so chooses, and it would have exactly the same effect as an “emergency debate” would in the House of Commons (and I do use the term loosely). More to the fact, this is not a situation for which the Emergencies Act could be invoked, because it is not a national emergency in any shape or form. Additionally, the section she cites says that Parliament needs to be recalled at its earliest opportunity, even if it’s been dissolved – in which case it means as soon as there’s a new parliament that can be convened.

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1427347519751720965

The fact that we have another party leader who is just pulling this out of her ass is bad enough, but she’s also a lawyer and should know better (and this goes doubly for Jagmeet Singh, as he too is a lawyer, and has been inventing powers for the Governor General). The fact that you can’t recall a dissolved Parliament is basic civics – and the fact that she doesn’t know this and is trying to issue demands to the Governor General should be disqualifying. It’s a complete embarrassment – but you wouldn’t know it if you watched the CBC, who glossed over the whole incident and didn’t mention it during their roundup of the day’s speeches. (We had other reporters covering themselves in glory today by asking the prime minister who was in charge during the election. No, seriously). An utter farce all around. This is why we can’t have nice things.

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