Tag Archives: China

Roundup: Graphing some drivers of inflation

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Just how much are the price of raw materials contributing to headline inflation? Well, the raw materials price index was released yesterday, and economist Stephen Gordon was curious, so he made some graphs.

Things I noticed: While gasoline is a big driver of headline inflation, the prices of wheat and beef are worth taking a look at because of the price spikes. What caused those spikes? Drought. Drought killed 40 percent of the wheat crop in 2021, and also meant a shortage of feed crop for livestock, which meant that ranchers had to cull herds to be able to afford to feed the remaining animals (because importing feed is expensive). This year we also saw more drought, which is having the same effect (and that drought has been persistent in southern Saskatchewan, which has to be in danger of turning into a dustbowl soon). And yes, there is a direct correlation to these more frequent droughts with climate change.

Also worth pointing out is the price of chicken also spiking, which was because of avian flu that meant culling flocks to prevent transmission. Again, that drives up prices. This is just more data to show that it’s not the carbon price driving up food prices—it’s climate change and its knock-on effects.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukraine’s largest private energy company says that they need more missile defences to protect power plants in advance of more Russian attacks over the winter. Ukrainian forces have confirmed that they have established several beachheads on the eastern banks of the Dnipro river, which is an important step in the counter-offensive. In Kharkiv region, the government is now building fortified underground schools because of the constant attacks. A Yale study says that more than 2400 Ukrainian children from four occupied regions have been taken to Belarus.

https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1725490287160529137

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Roundup: Alberta is run by children, example eleventy-four

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If you needed any more proof that Alberta is run by a group of petulant children, look no further than finance minister Nate Horner’s appearance on Power & Politics yesterday. While in the midst of grousing that during the (virtual) meeting with Chrystia Freeland earlier in the day on the subject of Alberta’s threats to pull out of the CPP (threats which are fairly transparently a pressure tactic to try and get out of other environmental obligations), and that Freeland was not entertaining any other carbon price exemptions, Horner said that he was going to launch a programme to subsidise anyone who wants to convert to heating oil in order to get the same break on carbon prices.

Heating oil generally costs about three-to-four times the price of natural gas for the same output. That’s the whole reason the “pause” was put into place as a stopgap to get more people switched over to heat pumps, along with a bunch of incentives to do so. If Horner actually thinks that people will pay more for heat in order to avoid paying the carbon price, and coming out at a net loss, for the simple thrill of “owning the libs,” well, that’s pretty much him telling on himself. And it’s so stupid because as the government has belatedly explained, there are actually more people who use heating oil outside of the Atlantic provinces than inside (mostly in northern communities), and they too get the “pause” in order to facilitate the switch over to heat pumps. The problem there, however, is that most of those provinces haven’t come to an agreement with the federal government in order to give the heat pumps for free to low-income households. So that may yet come, but right now, they’re still in full-on tantrum territory.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russians launched a new wave of overnight attacks across ten of Ukraine’s regions, and the Ukrainian air defences were able to intercept 24 of 38 drones plus a cruise missile. Here is a snapshot of the counter-offensive on various fronts, while Ukrainian troops battle exhaustion as winter approaches.

https://twitter.com/defensiemin/status/1720176662942253228

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Roundup: A “pause” on carbon prices that hands Poilievre a victory

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Prime minister Justin Trudeau announced yesterday afternoon that the federal government would be implementing a “pause” for three years on the carbon price on home heating oil, predominantly used in Atlantic Canada, because he’s in some serious electoral trouble in the region. He also said that enriched carbon price rebates for rural dwellers would be on the way, as well as more incentives for people to switch to heat pumps. The problem? This undermines the whole carbon price scheme, ensures that it no longer is in compliance with the rules that they established, and it hands a propaganda victory to the Conservatives who are crowing that this “proves” that the price is making life unaffordable, and that they’ll kill it outright.

This also handed ammunition to Danielle Smith and Scott Moe, who will now be demanding that natural gas for heating be exempted, because now the programme is explicitly unfair. They’re not wrong, even if they’re acting entirely in bad faith over it. The NDP have joined in, also insisting that all home heating should be exempt from the price, which further undermines it. And you’d better believe that there are problems around the implementation of the heat pump programme, particularly how it rolls out to low-income households who need it the most.

The most galling thing of all, however, is that this is a victory for Irving Oil (and enabled by the provincial price regulators). They deceptively increased prices on their home heating oil and said this was for the “clean fuel standard,” which is bullshit. That standard is not a price—it’s an emissions standard that comes into place gradually, and any increased costs would be what the refineries need to do to meet those standards. This, however, wasn’t well communicated by the government, and of course the narrative got swallowed by the Conservatives calling it “Carbon Tax 2” and a poorly done report from the Parliamentary Budget Officer who framed this like it was a price, and so Irving was able to act in the way it did. And because it’s Irving, and they are more powerful than any of the provincial governments in Atlantic Canada (which is an enormous problem in a democracy), nobody challenged them on this deceptive price increase, and they successfully jammed the federal government into undermining the carbon price, so now it can be picked away at until it’s well and truly dead. Well done, everyone. You’ve just screwed yourselves, your credibility, and ultimately the planet. Slow clap.

Ukraine Dispatch:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that Wednesday’s drone attack near the nuclear power plant in Khmelnitskyi region was likely targeted. Ukrainian officials say the Black Sea corridor is working, particularly now that they’ve chased away the Russian Black Sea Fleet from occupied Crimea. Ukrainian businesses are preparing for the possibility of another winter of attacks on the power grid.

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Roundup: Abusing authority to summon the RCMP Commissioner

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The abuse and beclowning of House of Commons committees continues apace, as the Conservatives tried to use the Access to Information, Ethics, and Privacy Committee to re-litigate the SNC-Lavalin scandal after Astroturf group Democracy Watch floated some bullshit last week about how the RCMP said they couldn’t investigate if a crime occurred because they were denied access to Cabinet-confidential documents. Never mind that no crime was ever alleged, but this was more than enough for the Conservatives to try to resurrect this dead horse, and they did so by the committee chair abusing his position to bring the head of the RCMP to testify at committee. The other parties at committee, however, were having none of this because of the abuse of procedure, and shut down the meeting, to howls of outrage by Conservatives who wanted their dog and pony show for the cameras.

https://twitter.com/MonaFortier/status/1716549067180736827

We’ll likely see said RCMP Commissioner invited back in a proper fashion in the next week or two, because the Bloc have stated that they want to hear from him, but with proper notice and preparation, so they’ll get their dog and pony show eventually. It won’t do them much good—the Commissioner told CBC on his way out of the building that there was nothing to tell, that the RCMP was satisfied that there wasn’t anything illegal once they did their due diligence, even if they couldn’t get those documents. It won’t satisfy the Conservatives or Democracy Watch, who will continue to allege conspiracies and dark deeds, and howl at the moon about cover-ups, because that’s how they get attention. (But seriously, media outlets—stop quoting Democracy Watch. They actually have no credibility and it’s a sign of lazy reporting if you rely on their quotes as a crutch).

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces say they shot down 14 drones and a cruise missile attacking the country’s south and east, but falling debris damaged a warehouse in Odesa. Russian forces pressed their attack on Avdiivka in the east, and Kupiansk, further north.

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Roundup: Openly pursuing creeping illiberalism

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You may have heard mention of a lavish trip that Conservative MPs took to London courtesy of a Hungarian think tank, but as you might expect from Canadian legacy media, the focus remains on the costs of the trip, and the stupid little partisan games in trying to get the ethics committee to look into it. What isn’t being mentioned is the fact that the think tank, the Danube Institute, is closely tied to the Orbán regime, and that is a worrying problem because of what it signals about right-wing parties in North America cosying up to Orbán.

Why this matters is because Orbán is undermining the rule of law and public institutions in Hungary, and is praising greater illiberalism. By cosying up to Orbán while has-beens like Stephen Harper try to sanitise his image through his IDU social club is because it creates a permission structure for right-wing parties like the Conservatives to start normalising the same illiberalism, pretending that this is all standard stuff for small-c conservative parties these days. The “don’t say gay” legislation in the US all came from Orbán’s playbook, and that is crossing over into Canada as well, with Conservatives openly winking and nodding to it, while you have conservative premiers invoking the notwithstanding clause to take away the rights of gender-diverse youth. This is the canary in the coal mine.

On the subject of creeping illiberalism, Conservatives (and MP Rachael Harder in particular) tried to get the public accounts committee to haul the CBC executives before them to “explain” why they don’t use the term “terrorist” when referring to Hamas, never mind that this is a practice shared by other news organisations like the BBC and The Associated Press. This kind of attempted intimidation is absolutely out of order, and represents political interference in the public broadcaster, which would be bad enough it Harder wasn’t the one always screaming about so-called “government censorship” with the Online Streaming Act and the Online News Act, as though that were a credible problem. It’s not, but it also seems to be both projection and an admission, that they want to control the news and programming, while accusing the Liberals of doing so (even though they absolutely are not). This is extremely dangerous for our democracy, and we should absolutely beware what they are trying to get away with.

Ukraine Dispatch:

While the attacks on Avdiivka continue, Russians struck an apartment building in Zaporizhzhia and killed two people. Ukraine has claimed responsibility for an attack on two Russian airfield in occupied areas using longer-range ballistic missiles quietly provided by the Americans, which is an unusual admission for them, but also signals that they can now hit Russian supply lines in more protected areas.

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Roundup: Misreading Friday’s decision

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In light of Friday’s Supreme Court of Canada decision on the Impact Assessment Act, Conservatives are already making some pretty stupid demands, like this one from MP Shannon Stubbs, who wants to move a motion at the Natural Resources Committee to repeal the old Bill C-69—except that it’s not what the Supreme Court ruled on, it’s a complete misreading of what the ruling was, and more to the point, would try to repeal the parts that are constitutional, and create even more uncertainty in the market. If people think that the system that the Harper government put into place was somehow better, all it did was ensure that project approvals wound up in litigation because there was too much uncertainty and ambiguity in the rules, and it didn’t do anything to speed approvals like they claimed it would.

For those of you who aren’t quite following, the thrust of the Court’s ruling was not that the whole scheme is unconstitutional, but rather that the list of things the federal government put into the Act in order to trigger a federal environmental assessment was overbroad, particularly around the issue of treating greenhouse gas emissions as an automatic federal issue because it’s a cross-boundary effect. That was too broad for the Court’s liking, so they’re essentially telling the government to narrow the scope of what triggers an assessment—that’s it. As previously stated, the Court explicitly rejected the notion that a “provincial” project is immune from federal assessment, so any talking points related to “exclusive jurisdiction” are also bogus, but so many people are proving that they either didn’t bother to read the decision, or if they did, certainly didn’t understand it.

Meanwhile, here’s another explanation of Friday’s ruling, this time from Martin Olszynski, Nigel Banks and David Wright.

Ukraine Dispatch:

On the 600th day of Russia’s illegal and unjustified invasion of Ukraine, their assault on the city of Avdiivka appears to be losing steam, after Ukrainian forces repelled 15 attacks from four directions over the previous 24 hours. Russians are also apparently looking to pierce the front lines in the Kupiansk-Lyman area on the country’s northeast. Elsewhere, Russia launched another overnight attack, with five missiles and twelve drones, focused on the western part of Ukraine.

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Roundup: The failed “1 Million March”

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The supposed “1 Million March 4 Children” took place yesterday in cities across Canada, and in most instances, were drowned out by counter-protesters—a welcome sign to be sure. And to be clear, these protests have nothing to do with children, or “parental rights,” but is focused largely on the moral panic around trans rights (and the falsehood that they are mutilating and sterilising children), pronoun policies in schools, and the libel that this is somehow about gays “grooming” children, or indoctrinating them to be gay. The attendees are pretty much a toxic brew of leftover “Freedom Convoy” enthusiasts, grievance tourists, far-right nationals, and some Muslim parents whom they have temporary found common cause with (and don’t expect this to last, given that much of the far-right agitation in Canada has its roots in Islamophobia, but they’re happy to let the Muslims agitate against LGBTQ+ people on their behalf). A few arrests were made at some of the demonstrations, but they were largely peaceful in that regard. (Write-up of the Ottawa event here, with photos here).

In terms of political reaction, the marchers didn’t get much support, outside of New Brunswick premier Blaine Higgs who greeted them and made common cause with them, because of course he did. In Ottawa, Jagmeet Singh led a counter-protest march, while the Conservatives were instructed to steer clear and say nothing, not even when it was raised in Question Period, as they sat stone-faced when others clapped about the denunciation of anti-trans hate. This silence is of course deliberate—it’s not because of a lack of conviction, but because they don’t want to jeopardise any ability to try and eat into the PPC’s far-right voter base, because that’s how they think they’ll edge out the Liberals in the next election. And I really have to question how MPs like Melissa Lantsman and Eric Duncan can sit there through this as though this doesn’t affect them (because remember, there is not “good parts only” version of right-wing populism. You can’t try and dog-whistle about “gender theory” and think that it’ll stop there, because it won’t).

The thing that gets me through all of this so-called movement to “protect children” is this insistence that LGBTQ+ people must be “grooming” children or indoctrinating them because there’s this belief that they’re too young to know if they’re gay or lesbian, or even trans. In most cases, that’s not true—most kids know who they are, and most of us older LGBTQ+ people have been through miserable and unsupportive youth and adolescence, and want to ensure that the next generation doesn’t have to go through what we did. That these people are masking their homophobia and transphobia as concern is one thing, but it’s the complete lack of empathy on their part that really gets me.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russians conducted strikes in at least six cities, including Kyiv, Kherson, Kharkiv, Cherkasy, and Lviv. AP has a look inside a Ukrainian platoon that freed Andriivka. At the UN, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the Security Council about Russia breaking the UN Charter.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1704473607273881853

Good reads:

  • Justin Trudeau told a climate event at the UN General Assembly that Canada is on track to exceed its methane reduction targets (but we did expand our fossil fuels).
  • As Trudeau has been having pull-aside meetings at the UN, Australia’s foreign minister calls the allegations about Indian agents “credible.”
  • Mélanie Joly relayed Canada’s “grave concerns” about Azerbaijan escalating military action in the Nagorno-Karabakh region involving Armenians.
  • Canada will pull some of its diplomatic staff from India following recent threats.
  • The Privacy Commissioner says Canada Post broke the law by harvesting information from envelopes and packages.
  • The Ombudsman for Responsible Enterprise is investigating Levi Strauss for possible forced labour in their supply chain.
  • Indian officials have suddenly started claiming students in Canada face risks to their personal safety, undermining their own High Commissioner’s comments.
  • American politicians are warning Canada against implementing a possible digital services tax on web giants (which we won’t do if the OECD gets its act together).
  • A group of senators are calling on the government to institute stricter criteria for schools that host international students.
  • Senator Jim Quinn introduced a bill to make the isthmus between New Brunswick and Nova Scotia federal jurisdiction (but that is a money bill and illegitimate).
  • Here is a look at Senator Marilou McPhedran’s outsized Senate expenses (which includes some journalistic malpractice, like getting quotes from the CTF).
  • Liberals from Atlantic Canada are calling out Conservative opposition to a bill that would extend the Atlantic Accords to include renewable energy such as wind farms.
  • Pierre Poilievre tabled his housing bill, which I’m dubious will even be voteable.
  • The Centre Ice Conservatives/Canadians group is calling their new political party “Canadian Future” (which is almost certainly a doomed venture).
  • A second Doug Ford minister, Kaleed Rasheed, resigned from Cabinet and stepped away from caucus over a trip to Vegas with Greenbelt Developers and lying about it.
  • Paul Wells pays a visit to Hamilton East Stoney Creek after the poll numbers look to be shifting there, and talks to the putative Conservative candidate about the mood.

Odds and ends:

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Roundup: “Credible allegations” of an assassination on Canadian soil

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It was an unexpected moment after Question Period, when Justin Trudeau returned to the House of Commons, and took advantage of the Statements by Ministers slot in Routine Proceedings to speak on an issue of “national security,” and revealed that credible intelligence from Canadian agencies has found that an agent of the Indian government was likely responsible for the murder of a Sikh leader in British Columbia several months ago. Other opposition leaders expressed their shock, and support for the government in this—being unusually less dickish than usual (until they denied Elizabeth May her own opportunity to speak—the dickishness resumed at that point). It also sounds like the timing of this announcement was earlier than anticipated—the Globe and Mail got a leak and went to confirm it with the government, and were asked if they could hold off publishing for a week, and the Globe said they had 24 hours, so Trudeau was forced to do this now, and not after he returned from the UN General Assembly.

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1703856088238416330

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1703879668842016904

Shortly thereafter, Mélanie Joly and Dominic LeBlanc scrummed in the Foyer and said that a high-ranking Indian diplomat was expelled from the country, and it sounds like the government is considering further measures in the near future. It also sounds like this was being discussed at the G20 meeting in India last week, as both the head of CSIS and Trudeau’s National Security Advisor were on the trip, and suddenly the frostiness with Narendra Modi and the cancelled trade mission make so much more sense, being as this was being pursued in back channels during the summit, not only with Indian officials but also with allied countries including the US and the UK.

For background, here is what we know about the victim, and the timeline of events surrounding the murder. India, predictably, refutes this.

Ukraine Dispatch:

There have been Russian attacks on both Lviv in the west and Kherson in the south. Ukrainian forces say they breached Russian lines near Bakhmut in the east, and have reclaimed two more villages. Six deputy defence ministers were fired, possibly in relation to a corruption scandal.

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Roundup: Barely a first step

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With the excitement around Thursday’s announcement on removing HST from purpose-built rental homes, there is a lot more work to do, most of which needs to be done at the provincial and municipal level, but the federal government is starting to step up with more than some funds, which is something. I do worry that a number of provinces will decide that because the federal government is doing something, that they can step back—you know, like a number of them did with healthcare spending where they reduced their own spending by the same amount as an increased federal transfer, which defeats the whole purpose.

So yeah—I’m not popping any champagne just yet that we have some incremental moves. Meanwhile, here’s Mike Moffatt on what needs to happen next.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian drones attacked the central Khmelnytskyi region, likely attempting to hit the Starokostiantyniv air base, where the attack on the shipyards in occupied Crimea had been launched. Meanwhile, a Ukrainian sea drone damaged a Russian missile ship off of occupied Crimea. Meanwhile, a pro-Russian former government minister has been detained for 60 days with no option of bail for suspected treason.

https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1702649870736105582

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Roundup: A foreign interference inquiry after all

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The announcement finally came down yesterday that the government will be launching a public inquiry into foreign interference, with terms of reference that include China, Russia, and any other state or non-state actors whom they see fit, and that this will be expected to have an interim report by the end of February next year, with a final report at the end of the year. Leading the inquiry will be Quebec Court of Appeal justice Marie-Josée Hogue, who has no national security experience, but says she is “honoured” to lead the exercise (though that is not what I would be feeling). The choice of judge and the terms of reference are apparently all unanimously agreed to by the government as well as the three main opposition parties, which is in part why it took so long, but there are still a few red flags, particularly around the timeline. It doesn’t seem either remotely possible or even plausible that the bulk of the work can be completed in five months (Hogue doesn’t start until the 18th), considering how much time it will take to stand up the inquiry’s infrastructure, and for her and her staff to be properly briefed on how to read top secret information and how to contextualise intelligence. This having been said, Dominic LeBlanc says the government will turn over any Cabinet documents she needs, and Justin Trudeau says he’ll willingly testify before said inquiry when asked to, so they’re certainly making a big show about cooperation.

As expected, the opposition parties fell all over themselves to take credit for this, and chided the government for why this took so long to get to this point, as though they weren’t a big part of the problem, most especially in trying to find someone to lead this process who was willing to do the job and subject themselves to the likelihood of daily character assassination in the process (because as much as they say they’re all in favour of this, the moment they think they can score points off of what is happening, they will have zero hesitation in being ruthless in doing so). Already Twitter was abuzz with her political donation history (Conservative), who appointed her to the bench (Peter MacKay), and her previous law firm (which has Liberal and China connections), so you can bet that there will be those who won’t hesitate to move into character assassination at a moment’s notice.

In related news, LeBlanc says he’ll be meeting with MP Han Dong in the near future to discuss his future and whether he’ll be able to re-join the party given the allegations against him, which David Johnston found to lack credibility in his report. It sounds like LeBlanc hasn’t had the time to deal with this with everything else going on over the summer, so we’ll see where that leads.

Programming note: It’s my birthday this weekend, so I’m going to make it a long-ish weekend on the blog. See you next week!

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russians attacked the Danube port of Izmail for the fourth time in five days, damaging more grain silos and critical infrastructure. Ukrainian forces are gearing up air defences in preparation for another winter of attacks on their energy systems and power grid. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has tasked his new defence minister with rebuilding trust after a series of corruption allegations in the defence forces, particularly around procurement. Ukraine is also calling for more international pressure on Russia to return the children they have taken from Ukraine over the course of the invasion.

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