Roundup: Reverberations north of the border

We’re now in day one-hundred-and-twenty-two of Russia’s invasion of Ukriane, and it looks like the battle for Severodonestk is ending as Ukrainian forces are withdrawing before they are completely encircled. That means Russians are now advancing on its twin city of Lysychansk, across the river, which will secure hold on the Luhansk province. More heavy American weaponry is arriving, but we’ll see if it’s enough to change the balance.

Closer to home, there was a lot of reaction in Canada to the US Supreme Court overturning the Roe v Wade decision, which essentially re-criminalises abortions in many states. Conservative leadership candidate Leslyn Lewis was quick to jump on it to encourage an “adult conversation” about it in Canada, which apparently involves abortion doctors being mind-readers and taking away these rights from women in other countries. (Other Conservative leadership candidates, including Pierre Poilievre, have reiterated that they are pro-choice). There are also a bunch of voices, some of whom are concern trolling, others of whom are genuinely clueless, who point out that Justin Trudeau hasn’t done anything to enshrine abortion rights in the constitution, which is a) dumb, and b) counter-productive as it actually plays into the hands of anti-abortionists who would use the opportunity to introduce limits. Yes, Trudeau has promised more about access, and he has tasked both ministers Duclos and Ien with consultations on adding regulations to the Canada Health Act around abortion access, but that’s not something that can happen overnight, as there is a process for regulation, and as we have long established, putting strings on healthcare funding for provinces is touchy business. But provinces are where the fight is in Canada, because they control access.

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There was also a number of news programmes yesterday which ran interviews with anti-abortionists in a completely uncritical fashion, allowing them to frame the conversation in their usual bullshit terms, and getting only the most minor pushback to some of their claims of popular support for their cause. These kinds of uncritical interviews are key to how misinformation and disinformation is spread through the media, because they have no capacity to do anything other than both-sides the issue, which again, allows misinformation and disinformation to spread because it isn’t challenged. We are fully in the age of disinformation, and our media outlets have learned absolutely nothing about how to deal with it, and yesterday was case in point about that.

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Roundup: Brown’s poor choice of words

It is approximately day ninety-six of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russia has stormed the city of Sievierodonetsk after trying unsuccessfully to encircle it. Some 90 percent of the cities buildings are damaged, and Russian forces have not cared about civilian casualties. At the same time, president Volodymyr Zelensky ventured out of Kyiv and visited the city of Kharkiv, and thanked the Ukrainian defenders in that city who pushed the Russian invasion back on that front.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is getting new shore-to-ship missiles from Denmark while howitzers from the US are arriving, and it is hoped that these missiles can help better defend their coast line (and possibly sink the Russian Black Sea fleet in the process). Also, here is a look at those evacuating from cities like Lysychansk in eastern Ukraine.

Closer to home, Patrick Brown is trying to walk back on his calling social conservatives “dinosaurs” in his book, saying it was a “poor choice of words.” But he was trying to make a point in the statement that those dinosaurs are becoming less relevant to the party, which in Ontario especially, tends to mean that you need to go on bended knee to Charles McVety and his particular ilk so that you can get their endorsement, which Doug Ford was certainly willing to do, and Brown was not, instead trying to expand the party membership through other ethno-cultural communities that could go around that traditional social conservative membership bloc. And I’ve heard certain Conservative organisers say that they want “open memberships” like the Liberals have in order to grow the party away from being beholden to the social conservatives—erm, but maybe you should just adopt more centrist or mainstream policies that will attract more people to the party if you want to move away from that particular base. Mind you, there is a bit of a chicken-and-egg situation in that those members will keep fighting to keep the policy book in their favour, but there is also no guarantee that “open memberships” will help you organise around these social conservatives any differently either. Suffice to say, if the party wants to grow away from this base, it requires a lot more organisational ability than they seem to be demonstrating to date.

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Roundup: Exit Kenney

It is now around day eighty-five of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and more than 260 fighters have left the Mariupol steel plant, into Russian custody, where their release will be negotiated. But there will be demands for them to stand trial, just as Russian soldiers are currently—one of them pleading guilty to killing civilians yesterday.

Closer to home, Alberta premier Jason Kenney announced that he will step down after receiving only 51.4% support in the UCP’s leadership review. It’s quite something, and he’s also the sixth premier in the last decade because it has become such a poisoned chalice, so good luck to his potential successors. I’ll write more about this in the next day or two, but it’s certainly a sign of how things are going in the province.

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As for the royal tour, day two was spent in Ottawa, starting with a ceremony to lay a wreath at the National War Memorial, a service at a Ukrainian church, a visit to the Byward Market, the RCMP Musical Ride, a round table discussion on climate finance, and finally a reception at Rideau Hall. There were good crowds for all of them, and it’s a very different reception than the attention of certain other tours this year. At the reception, AFN national chief RoseAnne Archibald raised the notion of an apology from the Queen (which is a bad idea), for what it’s worth. Meanwhile, here is an in-depth look at the first day of the royal tour and its broader context after William and Catherine’s Caribbean royal tour.

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Roundup: Royal tour, day one

It is now approximately day eighty-four of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and we have some confirmation now that the fighting in Mariupol is at an end. Both sides are claiming victory—Russia claiming it is a mass surrender, Ukraine stating that the garrison achieved their objectives, and in particular, they tied up Russian forces that couldn’t be deployed elsewhere, as those forces have been pushed back, as far as the border in some cases. There is now a negotiated withdrawal taking place, and prisoner swaps may be in the works, so we’ll see how this plays out.

Elsewhere, it sounds like today is the day that Sweden and Finland both make their applications to NATO, and while Turkey is still being sour about it, but we’ll see what particular concessions they try to extract before their membership is accepted.

Closer to home, it was the first day of Charles and Camilla’s royal tour, starting in Newfoundland and Labrador. They visited the provincial legislature, the lieutenant governor’s residence, and the village of Quidi Vidi, as well as met with residential school survivors. Prince Charles did talk about the need for reconciliation in his speech, and that is going to be one of the themes of the tour.

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Roundup: The usual rote nonsense ahead of a royal tour

It is now approximately day eighty-two of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and British intelligence is suggesting that Russia has lost up to a third of its forces in the Donbas region, and is significantly behind its schedule for the invasion of the region. There was also chatter over social media over the weekend that Ukrainian forces have pushed Russians far enough away from Kharkiv that the city is largely out of danger, so we’ll see if that holds. As well, Ukraine won Eurovision over the weekend, so that is also a bit of a nice morale boost for the country.

Meanwhile, Finland and Sweden are moving ever closer to officially applying for NATO membership, and Finland’s president has gone so far as to tell Vladimir Putin directly that they are apply, but that they would continue to engage on issues in a bilateral manner. There remains the complication of Turkey, who has become more clear in the demands they have before they would be willing to admit these new members, particularly around groups that these governments have supported which the Turkish government opposes.

Closer to home, it’s royal tour week, as Charles and Camilla arrive tomorrow, and once again, we get the usual rote nonsense from news outlets courting republicans to give the tired lines about “scepticism” of the monarchy, without noting that it’s going to be nigh impossible to remove them because a) it requires unanimous consent on the constitution from provinces, and b) there is zero consensus on what would replace them, and even if they did, that would be the conclusion of the colonial project around Indigenous peoples in this country, given that their treaties are with the Crown. And yes, that very much means something. There are of course a few special cases who think we should replace the current royal family with someone Canadian, but I am a bit dubious on that for the same reason as there being no consensus on who that might be, because for better or worse, the status quo has a thousand years of history behind them, which is pretty important in the grand scheme of things. Love or loathe the family themselves, the system works better than any of the alternatives, and we shouldn’t dismiss that out of hand.

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Roundup: The showboat special committee

It’s now around day sixty-three of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russia is waving around the threat of nuclear action if NATO members don’t stop arming Ukraine, which some are taking as mere talk. But still. There have also been more attacks over the border in Moldova, which Russia is trying to blame on Ukraine. Allied defence ministers met in Germany, and more weapons are on the way to Ukraine, so that warning by Russia isn’t dissuading them too much.

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Closer to home, the special joint committee on the Emergencies Act (which is not the inquiry) held their first major meetings last night, hearing from two ministers, and ostensibly the commissioner of the RCMP and the head of CSIS, but those latter two barely got any questions, because like I predicted seven weeks ago, this was really just about showboating as opposed to substance. And yeah—showboating and demands to release documents that we have no idea if they’d actually be relevant (but still operating under the assumption that the government is engaged in some sort of cover-up), while Conservatives still went to bat for the far-right extremists, grifters and conspiracy theorists who made up the occupation.

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What we did hear from Marco Mendicino included the fact that the Ottawa Police being the police of jurisdiction created challenges, and that that they had no choice but to invoke the Act in as limited way as possible. The head of CSIS did manage to get a question, in which he said that the agency is spending about fifty percent of their time currently on ideologically-motivated violent extremism, and that extremist content in the occupation didn’t surprise him. You can read Rachel Aiello’s livetweeting thread here for more, but it was pretty ridiculous overall. It’s a sad indictment of the fact that we are no longer a serious parliament made up of serious people, taking the business of the nation seriously.

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Roundup: Trudeau confirms that there are to be strings attached

It’s around day forty-eight of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and it appeared to be a fairly quiet day. Well, as quiet as can be in a country where two-thirds of its children have been forced to flee their homes in the past six weeks, which creates plenty of problems for their safety and security as they may be exploited in the confusion. Meanwhile, Russia has tapped a new general to lead its forces in Ukraine, and he’s one with a reputation of particular brutality in leading the Russian troops that acted in support of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, leaving a trail of civilian deaths and human rights violations in his wake. As well, Austria’s chancellor met with Putin, the first European leader to do so since the invasion, and tried to convince him to end the invasion, but he walked away from the meeting without any optimism that the war will end anytime soon.

Closer to home, prime minister Justin Trudeau has confirmed that he’s looking to have strings attached to future health care funds from the federal government, because he’s well aware of the history of provinces that have taken more federal dollars and used them on other things, including tax cuts, and the healthcare system has been left to suffer. Which is the way it should be—if the federal government is giving you money for healthcare, it should be used for just that, and no, that doesn’t mean they’re micro-managing, it means they want accountability for the money they send.

We also got confirmation that provinces are dishonestly ignoring the fact that the agreement in the 1970s to transfer tax points to the provinces in lieu of health transfers. They continue to insist that the federal government only funds 22 percent of their health care systems, but with the tax points, it’s over 33 percent, which is not insignificant considering that provinces are demanding the federal government fund the systems to at least 35 percent—a 35 percent that they don’t count the tax points under. They need to count those tax points, and government and media need to make that clear, rather than media just repeating the premiers’ talking points and both-sidesing it.

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Roundup: Three weeks into the invasion

We’re now in day twenty-one of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—three weeks, when Russia considered it a mere matter of marching. Talks appear to be making some slight progress, and in a curious statement, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated publicly that Ukraine would not be seeking NATO membership (but worth noting that NATO does not accept prospective members who are engaged in an active territorial dispute, which Ukraine has been with Russia, not only with the annexation of Crimea, but with the “breakaway” regions in its east). While Mariupol continues to be shelled, some 20,000 citizens were able to flee, which is progress. Zelenskyy will address the US Congress later today.

And there was Zelenskyy’s address to the Canadian Parliament, where he and Justin Trudeau addressed each other on a first-name basis, Zelenskyy referring to “dear Justin” on several occasions. While he continued his appeals to “close the skies,” he knows it’s not going to happen, but he has to ask—it’s his job to do so. And at the very least, it could spur other actions that have not yet been attempted that won’t consist of essentially declaring war on Russia, which is important. In response to the speech, the Putin regime put Trudeau and some 300 other Canadians, including MPs and Cabinet ministers, on the blacklist from being allowed into Russia, for what that matters. (For what it’s worth, Chrystia Freeland was blacklisted years ago).

Meanwhile, as all of this was happening, Governor General Mary May Simon got to have tea with the Queen at Windsor Castle, as well as meet Charles and Camilla at Clarence House. Unfortunately, it looks like the era of future Governors General spending the weekend with the Queen and family at Balmoral in advance of appointment seems to be at an end, but glad that this meeting was able to take place at long last.

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Roundup: Bad-faith grievance narratives and faux confusion

The day started off on something of a petulant tone, as Andrew Scheer complained that people were “upset and confused” by prime minister Justin Trudeau’s decision to attend the Black Lives Matter protest in spite of the pandemic, and furthered the bad faith grievance narrative by pointing to the Ottawa restaurant that was fined $880 for opening its patio. Scheer, and other Conservatives, spent the day obscuring the difference between what the federal government is in charge of and what falls under local public health guidelines, and deliberately playing up this “confusion” where none should actually exist – there were public health guidelines that said that if people were going to protest that they should wear masks and social distance, and then self-isolate afterward, if anyone bothered to pay attention.

Trudeau was up shortly thereafter for his daily presser, and he talked at length about those protesting, and people being afraid of the police, and that he promised to deal with systemic racism and listed actions that his government has taken to thus far to deal with it, including mental health resources for the Black community, an anti-racism secretariat and strategy under the Minister of Diversity, and agreed that it’s not enough. He also said that he has been in discussions with Cabinet, as well as the RCMP commissioner, and that he was also raising the issue of body cameras with premiers this week. Trudeau also mentioned that Bill Blair was following through on their commitment to Indigenous policing, and that this week the government would be undergoing a stock-taking on their reconciliation efforts with Indigenous people. He then pivoted to the wage subsidy and other measures being taken to help people, the $14 billion being offered to help provinces with their economic restarts, and finally announced that they had introduced a number of limited exemptions at the border for immediate family members of Canadians to cross – spouses, children, parents of minor children in Canada – but that they must still self-isolate for 14 days upon arrival. During the Q&A, he defended his attending the protests as balancing competing interests.

On body cameras, it looks like the RCMP has agreed to outfit some members with them, but it remains a controversial move, that may be seen as a band-aid solution to deeper problems. (Here’s a good thread by lawyer Michael Spratt to that effect). It’s also pointed out that if we want to shift resources away from the current model of policing, this is a big expense that makes it even harder to do so.

As the talk of the defunding/abolishing police gains momentum, here is a look at how Camden, New Jersey, has been doing an experiment in scrapping their police force and starting over, and some of the more important things to realize in his are that the incentives changed – not judging performance by the number of arrests or tickets issued, and a focus on making connections in communities. Of course, it also says that they haven’t made enough investments in the other community supports that are supposed to underpin this model, so that’s something to think about.

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Roundup: No contrition

Despite the Liberals having floated that the notion that Justin Trudeau may be striking a more conciliatory tone over his handling of the Double-Hyphen Affair, when he called an early morning press conference before getting on a plane to Iqaluit (and having to turn back because of weather), Trudeau was decidedly not conciliatory. Or apologetic. But he did say that they were always learning lessons, and this too was one more of them. Of course, I’m not really sure how conciliatory he really could be – he has basically boxed himself into a corner where he can’t admit wrongdoing, because that would mean he undermined the rule of law, but he also has to look like he’s sensitive enough as to why Jody Wilson-Raybould resigned while still trying to brazen it out. It’s one hell of a juggling act, but nobody seems to be buying it. And so, while mouthing words about leadership styles and trying to put forward the notion that Wilson-Raybould didn’t come to him with her concerns where the door was open, one of his soon-to-be departing MPs, Celina Caesar-Chavannes tweeted that she tried to do so, twice, and was apparently rebuffed (and then refused all media entreaties to clarify). So there’s that.

In related content, some Indigenous and Métis leaders say that Wilson-Raybould could have effected real change had she taken over the Indigenous Services portfolio that she rebuffed. Here’s a list of outstanding questions we have after discrepancies between Wilson-Raybould’s testimony, and that of Gerald Butts and Michael Wernick. And since the opposition members of the justice committee have seen fit to recall the committee next week, they may have the opportunity to call past witnesses back…again. The National Postrounds-up the international and Quebec reactions to the ongoing story. And of course there are the premiers of Saskatchewan and Alberta (and Brad Wall) whinging that this shows special consideration for Quebec-based jobs, while conveniently ignoring that Trudeau bought a pipeline and has been shovelling federal dollars into the energy sector of late. Here’s a look at what a 10-year ban on federal contracts could mean for SCN-Lavalin, as they are now lobbying for leniency if they are convicted, and updates to the integrity framework could be flexible enough that they could avoid debarment.

In pundit reaction, Chris Selley is having none of Butts’ explanations for the Cabinet shuffle math. Jason Lietaer offers suggestions as to how Trudeau could have fixed the situation (but that would mean showing contrition, which is risky for him to do). John Geddes makes the point about how Trudeau promised not to centralise power in his office, but certainly appears to have anyway. Robert Hiltz has a hard time figuring out just what lessons Trudeau says he’s learned, given that he seems oblivious to it all.

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