Roundup: Local media takes on Poilievre

It was a banner day for local media yesterday, as the local news in Sudbury absolutely roasted the Conservatives for trying to send them media lines about how the Liberals’ Ontario caucus is holding their retreat in the “lavish” Sudbury Holiday Inn. No, seriously, that’s the line they’ve been trying to spin. (It’s the “Rome of the North,” remember?) Of course, Poilievre himself has held a top-dollar fundraiser at an expensive restaurant in Sudbury just a few weeks ago, and the Sudbury news did point out the cost of the Conservatives’ previous caucus retreat in Quebec City, but yeah, the attempt at outrage politics is that bad.

Meanwhile, the editor of the local paper in Niagara-on-the-Lake recently tried to ask Poilievre about government supports for local media, and then wrote a lengthy editorial dismantling the completely obvious lies that Poilievre told him in response, in part because he treats people like they’re idiots as he lies to them. It’s nice to see local media like this hold him to account, and are doing it better than some of the national outlets, who are very studiously both-sidesing everything Poilievre says and not calling him out on the clear and obvious lies, possibly because they don’t want to be on the receiving end of his vitriol the way CBC and The Canadian Press have been in recent months.

Speaking of media, I absolutely cannot believe that CTV actually posted a story trying to find a Canada Angle™ to US president Joe Biden’s pledge to impose term limits on judges in that country. Like, seriously, you do not need to Canada Angle™ every single gods damned story that comes out of the US. We’re a different country. We have a different laws and different structures, and we’re doing things better than they are in most cases as it is already. We don’t have an ideological Supreme Court, and we don’t have judges on that court hanging onto their positions literally until they die, and to even try and Canada Angle™ this is just amateurish. We have plenty of under-reported news stories in this country as is. We don’t need to import American stories while we’re at it.

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukraine says it downed all 29 Russian drones overnight on Thursdsay, however, a guided bomb struck the Kharkiv region, killing two and injuring twelve. There has been heavy fighting in the eastern front, as Russia is advancing toward the city of Pokrovsk. Russia says it will beef up border defences as Ukraine has taken control of the town of Sudzha, the administrative centre for the Kursk region, where they plan to start delivering humanitarian aid to residents. The push into Kursk has exposed Russia’s vulnerabilities, and some analysts believe could change the course of the war. In case you were wondering, Canada has okayed any of our donated heavy equipment to be used in Russian territory.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1824012366792560682

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Roundup: Calling for price caps

The NDP are at it again, and by “it,” I mean making stupid demands that should get them laughed out of any room they’re in. To wit, yesterday they demanded price caps on certain grocery items, claiming that the Loblaws settlement over the class action for the bread price-fixing scheme as “proof” that government needs to take action. I can’t think of a more economically illiterate argument that is trying to simply base itself on “vibes” that will only do far more harm than it will do good.

The high price of certain grocery items is rarely an issue of grocery chains hiking prices. It does happen, but there has been little evidence of it when margins have been stable. If you bother to actually pay attention to agricultural news or Statistics Canada data, it’s pretty clear that much of those price increases are a result of climate change-related droughts in food-producing regions, with the odd flash flood or hurricane also ruining crops, and driving up prices. The invasion of Ukraine exacerbated issues by throwing world markets for wheats and cooking oils out of whack, driving up prices as exports couldn’t get to market. And even if you have growing conditions that rebound, often price are locked into contracts with producers or processors for several years at a time, which can delay prices returning to lower levels as supply rebounds. But the point here is that most of this is explainable if you actually bother to look, rather than just screaming “corporate greed!” because you are ideologically predisposed to doing so.

More to the point, this just strikes me as a little bit of history repeating the demands for price controls in the mid-seventies as inflation was reaching double-digits, which then-prime minister Pierre Trudeau mocked with the phrase “Zap, you’re frozen!” We’re not there, and frankly the demand for price caps is frankly ridiculous, and if they persist, we should resurrect “Zap, you’re frozen” to mock them as relentlessly.

Programming Note: I am taking the next week or so off. Columns will continue on schedule but blogs and videos will be taking a bit of a break.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched drone attacks against power facilities in two regions, prompting more power grid disruptions. Another drone attack appears to have overshot and struck down in Romania, but NATO doesn’t believe that this was an intentional attack. A leaked UN report is pointing to Russia as the culprit of an explosion at barracks housing Ukrainian POWs two years ago that killed fifty.

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Roundup: A predictable lack of self-awareness of her rhetoric

As day follows night, it was not only predictable but absolutely inevitable that Danielle Smith would immediately start parroting Republican talking points to condemn the rhetoric of her political rivals for the increase in political violence in the wake of the assassination attempt on Donald Trump. And because this is Danielle Smith, there is absolutely zero self-awareness of her own history of violent political rhetoric and encouraging it among the more swivel-eyed elements of her political base in reference to her rivals.

In fact, here are some examples of how Smith’s past rhetoric has put lives in danger, which, again, she refuses to take absolutely any responsibility for. No, it’s the “progressive left” with their “cancel culture” that is creating this violent rhetoric.

Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre says he worries about the safety of his family, but rejects any notion that he has to tone down his own political rhetoric, where he accuses the prime minister of selling out the country to foreign powers, or offering succour to the “convoy” crowd and their flags denoting their desire to have sex with the prime minister, while refusing to condemn their violent rhetoric (such as images or actual nooses that they carry as part of their grievance cosplay). It should be little wonder then why Canadian intelligence services worry that threats to politicians are increasing because those people see that there’s no consequences for them doing so. Indeed, this comes at the same time as the former Army reservist who crashed into the gates of Rideau Hall with a truck full of guns got out on statutory release. It was a short sentence (he was sentenced to less than half of the maximum), and seems to be no worse for wear from it. It certainly gives all of the impression that we’re not taking it seriously.

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukraine’s navy says that the last Russian patrol ship has left Russian-occupied Crimea to be re-based elsewhere, thanks to Ukraine’s campaign of naval drones causing significant damage to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that Ukraine still needs another 25 Patriot missile defence systems, and more F-16s in order to protect the country from further Russian strikes.

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Roundup: New subs on the menu

We all knew it was coming, but the day finally arrived—the announcement that yes, Canada is officially embarking on a new submarine fleet, that we’re planning for up to twelve (from the current four), and that they will be conventionally powered and not nuclear (so no, we won’t be getting into the AUKUS nuclear subs club).

This is going to push us past the two percent spending target for NATO, but it does amaze me that the government waited until this long at the NATO conference to announce it, after they spent the past two days being punching bags for American congressmen and senators who want to look tough and make a point, while also feeding the bullshit narrative back home that the Elder Pundits have decreed we must follow. You would think that the supposed communications geniuses that this government purports to employ would get ahead of the entire situation, but no, that is apparently beyond their capabilities. Hermes wept; this government is so gods damned incompetent at these kinds of things that should be absolute gimmes. Cripes.

Meanwhile, the CBC tried to pin down the Conservatives on their totally serious plan to both “move toward” meeting the NATO target (note the hedging language that does not say they promise to meet it—remember, the Conservatives love “aspirational” targets that they can pay lip service toward with no intention of ever meeting), while cutting the budget overall (that means cuts at defence because that’s the easiest target and most able to push back capital expenditures). Unsurprisingly, the Conservative wouldn’t actually give direct answers, nor would they say what they mean by restoring “warrior” and not “woke” culture in the Forces. Of course, that’s generally code for the culture of toxic masculinity that got the military into so much trouble in the first place, with both sexual misconduct and abuse of power, but these guys are up late watching bro culture videos on YouTube, so they know all about “warrior culture.”

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian missile strike in the Mykolaiv region has killed one and injured eight including a local mayor. A combined drone and missile attack on Odesa has killed two and damaged port infrastructure. Russian forces also claim to have taken control of Yasnobrodivka in the Donetsk region, which Ukraine won’t confirm. Ukraine’s top prosecutor alleges that Russians killed two prisoners of war from the Zaporizhzhia region. Here’s a look at why the incoming F-16 fighters likely won’t have an immediate impact on the war.

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Roundup: Premiers concern trolling on the carbon levy

A number of premiers have been writing letters to the prime minister, imploring him not to increase the carbon price on April 1st, citing the cost-of-living challenges that people are having. Unmentioned, of course, is the fact that the rebates are also increasing, and they’re front-end loaded, meaning the higher rebates already come into effect as the carbon levy increases, so if you pause the increase, the rebates will have already increased, which is going to cause a problem down the road for the federal books.

Nevertheless, this is largely concern trolling from the premiers, and yes, that includes Newfoundland and Labrador premier Andrew Furey, whom everyone has been making a big deal of because he’s currently the last Liberal premier standing, and he too is making the call. “Oh, just hold off on the increase while rates are still high!” they say, but rest assured, it will never be a good time to raise the price, and it will stall climate action, while the premiers mouth that they still believe in fighting climate change so long as it doesn’t cost them anything or that they don’t have to take any action, or that they’ll solve it through magical technology that hasn’t been invented yet, and never will be, especially not without adequate price signals that the carbon levy provides as it increases. Also, we’ve been down this road before with the price of oil. When it rises, people buy more fuel-efficient vehicles, and when it comes down, they go right back to buying SUVs and ridiculously oversized pick-up trucks that drive on suburban roads and never haul anything (especially because the box sizes in newer models are tiny).

If I were advising the government (and clearly, I’m not), I would insist that they hold the line on the increases, make the point about the rebates as much as possible—especially as they are delivering more to those who need it the most—because they can’t afford to show any further weakness on this file if they want to have any credibility left. They shouldn’t have caved on the home heating oil (but should have come up with a better temporary rebate for those in that particular situation), and they most especially shouldn’t have made the announcement in front of every single Atlantic MP (which was the single dumbest thing they could have done, so of course they did it). Maintaining the credibility of the programme may be its best hope for staying put, particularly when compared to all other options.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian missiles hit two apartment buildings in Kryvyi Rih on Tuesday, killing three people. Ukraine’s security service says it broke up the largest pro-Kremlin “informational sabotage” networks it has found to date. Russia says they fought off “incursions” coming from Ukraine in the Belgorod region, while Ukraine fired drones and missiles at a major refinery in Russia, inflicting serious damage.

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Roundup: Threats only matter when it’s your family

The chatter yesterday morning was that the Diagolon crew talked on their online show about raping Pierre Poilievre’s wife just to prove that they could, and lo, Poilievre got angry, referred this to the RCMP, and called the Diagolon crew dirt bags and insisted he had never heard of this group before, even though he very clearly had, and had been playing footsie with them like he has with a bunch of other far-right extremists. And yes, it’s horrifying that they would make these kinds of comments—which they insist were just “a joke” and that they meant no harm (far-right extremists are always “just joking” until they’re not), but Poilievre only seemed to care about rape threats when they were directed as his family, and not, say, the female journalists who reported on his connections with Diagolon, for whom Poilievre decried as a “smear” and sent his flying monkeys after them, who were again subjected to all manner of graphic rape and death threats, which he has never denounced. You see where this is going?

https://twitter.com/TedFriendlyGuy/status/1574412812574769152

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 215:

It is apparently the last day of Russia’s sham referendum in occupied regions of Ukraine, while their forces have conducted drone airstrikes on the port of Odessa.

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Roundup: Unauthorized travel and absurd punishment

In spite of instructions not to travel outside of the country, Liberal MP Yves Robillard did anyway, and now is facing censure for it. Liberal Whip Steve MacKinnon issued a statement saying that as a result of this non-essential travel, Robillard is being removed from his committee duty (he was a backbencher on the national defence committee, meaning there is no financial penalty for this loss), and that MacKinnon will give him a talking-to later.

This having been said, I find the removal from committees to be an odd sort of punishment, because you’re assigning them less work to do. Maybe the assumption is that they are somehow vain enough to want face time in committees, but that seems like a perverse incentive. You could reassign them to the less glamorous committees, like Scrutiny of Regulations, I suppose, where they are unlikely to get media attention or to any travel, or the like. If I had my druthers, I would not only keep them on their assigned committee, but ensure that every hour not on committee was spent being assigned to House duty in perpetuity (with some additional prohibitions against device use so that they can’t be spending the time playing solitaire on their tablets, or the like), but that may cross the threshold into cruel and unusual punishment.

I will also note that taking away someone’s committee duties is counterproductive because there aren’t enough bodies to go around on committees as it is, so removing someone just means more work for everyone else. It’s especially perverse that this has also been handed down on Senator Denise Batters, who was kicked out of the Conservatives’ national caucus, but she still sits with their senate caucus, but has been denied committee work—which, again, makes more work for everyone because the diminished Conservative ranks in the Senate means not enough of them to go around to fill committee seats (and this gets to be a big problem, much as it was pre-2008 when Stephen Harper was refusing to fill Senate seats and his senators were doing double and triple duty on committees to just try and have enough bodies on them). More to the point, this just gives Batters more time to be on Twitter, picking away at O’Toole. Taking away someone’s committee duties as punishment simply makes no sense at all.

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Roundup: Dairy commissions and questions of jurisdiction

There were a couple of announcements for prime minister Justin Trudeau’s daily presser yesterday – that Health Canada had approved a serological test that was critical to the work of the immunity task force; that some $1 billion in additional funds was being allocated to regional development agencies to help struggling businesses; and that the student benefits would be open for applications as of Friday. There were a lot of things that came up during the Q&A – demands from reporters for a budget or a fiscal update, for which Trudeau said that they couldn’t predict what was going to happen in a few weeks, so it didn’t make much sense to try to lay out a plan for the next twelve months. On the Canada-US border, it was strongly hinted that the current closure would continue for another month, but he wasn’t going to speculate past then. He talked about the need to work with provinces and municipalities as transit operators face a huge revenue shortfall. Regarding Norway’s sovereign wealth fund pulling its investments out of the oilsands, he remarked that it was clear that climate considerations were becoming a bigger feature in the investment landscape. He also promised to look into the issue of health researchers in the country facing layoffs because funding sources evaporated and they aren’t eligible for the federal wage subsidy because of a technicality.

And then it was off to the House of Commons, first for the in-person meeting of the Special Committee, which descended into farce fairly quickly and stayed there – Andrew Scheer railing about the revelations that potential fraud of the CERB isn’t being caught up-front, while his MPs both demand easier access to small business supports while clutching their pearls about the potential size of the deficit, apparently blind to the contradiction in their position. Meanwhile, Jagmeet Singh was demanding that the federal government swoop in and offer some kind of national guarantee around long-term care, giving Trudeau the chance to chide him about his disregard for provincial jurisdiction (and Trudeau was a little sharper on this than he often is).

The special committee eventually gave way to a proper emergency sitting of the Commons to pass the latest emergency bill, this time on increasing the borrowing limit of the dairy commission, while many a journalist mischaracterized this as “debating” said bill. There was no debate – it was pre-agreed to, and each party would give a couple of speeches that may or may not be related to the bill before they passed it at all stages for the Senate to adopt on Friday. At the beginning of this, however, Singh was back up with yet another motion, this time to call on the government to ensure that there was universal two-week paid sick leave – which is, once again, provincial jurisdiction. (The motion did not pass). I’m torn between trying to decide if Singh is genuinely clueless about what is and is not federal jurisdiction (a position bolstered by his promises in the election around things like local hospital decisions), or if he’s cynically trying to make it look like the federal government doesn’t care about these issues when they have no actual levers at their disposal to make any of these demands happen. Either way, federalism is a real thing, and trying to play it like it’s not is a real problem for the leader of a federal party.

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Roundup: A bridge loan, not a bailout

It was a bit of a staggered rollout of the message of the day, starting with Bill Morneau and Navdeep Bains in Toronto to announce the creation of the Large Employer Emergency Financing Facility (LEEFF), which is designed to give large employers temporary bridge financing if they can’t get it by other means, but that comes with a great many strings attached, such as ensuring that jobs and collective agreements are maintained, that climate change plans are not affected, and that there are limits to executive compensation, share buybacks, dividends, and on top of that, these companies will need to disclose their financial structures to ensure that they’re not avoiding taxes with offshore banks or shelters.

Justin Trudeau was up shortly thereafter for his daily presser, noting the start of National Nursing Week, before he spoke about enhanced measures for medium-sized businesses, and then reiterated the messages around the LEEFF, citing that these were bridge loans and not bail-outs, and that the government was only to be a lender of last resort. When asked whether this was some kind of attack on oil companies with the focus on environmental plans, Trudeau insisted that many of them had net-zero-by-2050 plans, so this condition should not have been more onerous on them – but that didn’t stop the usual suspects from complaining that this wasn’t the kind of help that the energy sector was looking for.

During the ministerial presser, Chrystia Freeland said that they working with the US to deal with the inevitable increase in cross-border traffic as economies started re-opening, as premiers express reservations around the possibility of visitors once again coming to Canada.

Meanwhile, here’s economist Kevin Milligan on the path of the labour market and the economy, that’s worth thinking about.

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1259641163989970945

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1259641908436930560

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1259642852260278272

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1259644740460404736

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QP: Cheerleading a recession

After this morning’s surprising announcement that Andrew Scheer was resigning as Conservative leader, the PM was in his office but not present for QP (even though he had been in the House to respond to Scheer’s resignation just a couple of hours earlier). After a lengthy ovation, Scheer lamented last month’s job numbers, which I remind you was 100 percent bullshit, particularly his warnings about a “made-in-Canada recession.” Bill Morneau reminded him that while monthly job numbers are important, they would continue to invest in Canadians as that created over a million jobs. In French, Scheer demanded an economic update, and Morneau responded was that one would happen in the coming days. Scheer switched back to English to carry on his lament for the stage of the economy, giving misleading G7 job stats, to which Morneau repeated that their plan to invest was working, and that the economy was on track for the second-highest growth in the G7. Leona Alleslev was up next, and in French, concern trolled about the New NAFTA, and demanded impact assessments for it. Chrystia Freeland reminded her that the existential threat to our economy was now past, and endangering ratification was simply threatening the economy. Alleslev switched to English to worry about “repairing” our relationship with the US, and Freeland stated that the most important thing was ratifying the agreement. Yves-François Blanchet was up next, and he spun a sad tale of steel workers in Ontario being protected but aluminium workers in Quebec were not, to which Freeland reminded him that they got the tariffs repealed, and that the new agreement had 70 percent North American aluminium content requirements. Blanchet sang the praises of economic nationalism, and Freeland warned of the dangers of partisanship. Jagmeet Singh was up next, and demanded the government stop the judicial review of the Human Rights Tribunal compensation order, to which Marc Miller started that they were engaging partners to see that there was the fairest and most comprehensive compensation offered. Singh tried again in English, and Miller listed new measures they are in compliance with, and said that they were sitting down to get compensation right.

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