Roundup: The wrong people taking credit for disinflation

Statistics Canada released the January Consumer Price Index data yesterday, and lo, it shows that inflation is dipping back into the control range at 2.9% annualized, which was lower than anticipated, and fairly broad-based including food prices decelerating to just above the headline number, meaning prices are stabilising finally, and yet somehow, with carbon prices still in place, and the grocery oligopolies not having been subjected to punitive windfall taxes. Imagine that!

In all seriousness, because there were month-over-month price drops in fuel prices in Manitoba thanks to Wab Kinew’s decision to pause gas taxes, and Saskatchewan not collecting the carbon levy, we got a bunch of people who should know better saying stupid things about carbon prices and inflation. Kinew, who has economics training, should especially know better.

Inflation is a year-over-year measure. Carbon prices have a negligible impact on it because it rises at the same level every year, so it’s not inflationary. A one-time drop in prices is also not deflationary or disinflationary because it’s a one-time drop, not sustained or pervasive. If you need a further explainer, economist Stephen Gordon has resurrected this thread to walk you through it.

On the subject of things that are unfathomably dumb, it looks like the CRA has decided to buy Saskatchewan’s transparent legal fiction that the provincial government is the natural gas distributor for the province, in spite of it being against the clear letter of the federal and provincial law, which means that consequences for the province not remitting the carbon levy on heating will be borne by Cabinet and not the board of SaskEnergy. What the hell?

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian attacks on the northern part of Ukraine killed seven on Tuesday, while Ukraine’s forces say they destroyed 13 out of 19 drones launched by Russia on Wednesday. Ukrainian officials are investigating the Russians shooting three soldiers captured on Sunday. Here is a look at the shattered ruins of Avdiivka. Ukraine’s state arms producer has signed an agreement with a German arms manufacturer to help produce more air defences domestically.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1759942168989360468

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QP: Demands to turn over documents

The prime minister was off in Winnipeg for a healthcare announcement with premier Wab Kinew, and his deputy was away in Toronto, while most of the other leaders were also absent. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and after deploying a half-dozen slogans, he broached the ArriveCan issue and said that he was told that a court order would be required to get a court order for the production of documents, and wanted the government to turn them all over. Jean-Yves Duclos said that the Auditor General did good work in her damning report, and that they have taken steps and more would follow soon, and that they were being transparent and turning over all requested documents to the RCMP and elsewhere. Poilievre switched to English to repeat the allegation that the RCMP needs a production order for records and again demanded that the government simply turn over the documents to the RCMP and committees. Duclos cautioned that Poilievre sounded like he was calling into question the capabilities of the Auditor General. Poilievre repeated his claim and again demanded that all documents related to ArriveCan or GC Strategies be turned over. Dominic LeBlanc insisted that they have been cooperative. Poilievre then quoted Thomas Mulcair on the situation, Poilievre wondered why the NDP were keeping the government in power, but that wasn’t a question to government. LeBlanc got up anyway to insist that they have taken this situation seriously. Poilievre then quoted Sean Fraser, claiming he was attacking himself, and demanded the government start building homes. Soraya Martinez Ferrada got up to pat the government on the back for working with mayors, and said that unlike when Poilievre was minister, they were getting housing built.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he wanted an expanded investigation into GC Strategies. Duclos reminded him of the scope of urgency in the pandemic, but said it wasn’t an excuse for civil servants not to do their jobs properly. Therrien demanded a “clean sweep” at CBSA, to which Duclos agreed that there needed to be an investigation, several of which are ongoing.

Heather McPherson rose for the NDP, and raised the number of casualties in Gaza, but insisted that the government is keeping up with arms sales (which they haven’t), and called out Rob Oliphant’s leaked comments. Ahmed Hussen insisted that Canada was the first to start offering humanitarian aid. Daniel Blaikie wanted support for the party’s bill on amending EI benefits, and Randy Boissonnault said that the work to modernise the system is ongoing, and this particular issue of women on mat leave being laid off was before the courts.

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QP: Who has more connections to Loblaws lobbyists?

The prime minster was present as is customary for a Wednesday, while his deputy was away. All of the other leaders were present as well for a second day in a row. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, citing rental increases as though that were a federal jurisdiction. Justin Trudeau cited a Conservative MP pointing out that the government has new announcements every day, which Trudeau agreed, that they were rolling out programmes to help Canadians and speed up home building. Poilievre insisted that the government just bloats bureaucracy but doesn’t build houses. Trudeau called him out for insulting mayors and using the homeless as props while offering nothing. Poilievre cited CMHC figures and population estimates for needing another five million units. Trudeau said that they were investing in municipalities to decrease red tape and accelerate building while increasing densification. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his first question, to which Trudeau repeated his same response. Poilievre trotted his line that people can’t live in programmes and announcements, to which Trudeau walked into the trap by pointing to an announcement he made about investments made years ago turned into houses today, and accused Poilievre of insulting mayors and people’s intelligence. 

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, pointed to the government delaying the expansion of MAiD and that if the Conservatives get in, they will lock it down when the delay expires. Trudeau said that they are upholding fundamental rights and freedoms, but this is a difficult issue that they will “continue to reflect” on. Blanchet wanted the government to adopt Quebec’s request for advance requests, to which Trudeau insisted this was an very difficult decision for them to make as a society.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, to demand the government support his bill on grocery prices. Trudeau noted that they have measures in the Fall Economic Statement that align with the NDP proposal, and trotted the accusations around Jenni Byrne. Singh switched to French to repeat the demand, and Trudeau repeated his same response. 

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QP: Keeping up the focus on auto thefts

Both the prime minister and his deputy were present today, as were all other leaders, and it wasn’t even a Wednesday. Pierre Poilievre led off in French and complained that CBSA was only inspecting one percent of containers, and demanded that the government do more about it. Justin Trudeau responded that organised crime is largely responsible for car thefts, which is why they sent $121 million to Ontario, which the Conservatives voted against. Poilievre complained that the money was just going to managers, and demanded the government agree to his “plan” of buying new container scanners. Trudeau noted that they had to rehire the border officers that the Conservatives fired when they cut their budget. Poilievre switched to English, and claimed that the Conservatives cut car thefts and Trudeau saw them explode, which is a bit of specious reasoning. Trudeau noted that this would be more credible if the Conservatives didn’t vote against their plans to invest in the border. Poilievre insisted that his plan would scan every single container in the four major ports, to which Trudeau again reminded him that the previous government which Poilievre was part of fires the very boots on the ground he touts. Poilievre then pivoted to the invitation to Yaroslav Hunka to a Toronto event for Volodymyr Zelenskyy and demanded Trudeau resign like the previous Speaker did. Trudeau said that this was a slam against the Ukrainian Canadian Congress, and that it shows the Conservatives no longer support Ukraine.

Yves-François Blanchet led off for the Bloc, and demanded support for a Bloc bill to remove the religious exemption for hate speech. Trudeau said that he agrees that there was no place for hatred and that Canadians need to stand against it no matter how it manifests. Blanchet insisted that law enforcement needs the ability to make those arrests. Trudeau said that they know it’s important to defend the Charter while standing against hate speech and glorification of violence.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and demanded the government impose new taxes on grocery giants, and accused them of not being tough because the housing minister got donations from the Sobey’s family. Trudeau read a script about the changes to the Competition Act they have made. Singh repeated his demand and insinuation in French, and got the same scripted response in French.

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QP: An exhausted slugging match over Ukraine

The prime minister was present today, while his deputy was away doing pre-budget consultations. All other leaders were present as well, and it was the day where they decided it was going to be all about them. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, rattled off his slogans, and then worried about the increase in auto thefts, as though that wasn’t a policing issue at the provincial and municipal level. Justin Trudeau noted that the previous government cut budgets for policing and that his government has re-invested, that they’re working with provinces, and that Poilievre’s slogans won’t do anything. Poilievre insisted that they got better results for fewer dollars, and again blamed federal policies for this rise. Trudeau read from a script that they will be holding a national summit on the issue, and that they are getting results from investing in border officers. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his first question with added rhetorical flourish, and Trudeau dismissed Poilievre’s “whipping out empty slogans,” and reiterated the success of CBSA stopping more stolen cars from leaving the country. Poilievre quoted from the press release the government put out, and blamed the federal government for the rise. Trudeau reminded him that in 2015, Harper slashed funding for the RCMP and CBSA, and that he had to clean up the mess, before he got drowned out by the applause on his own side. Poilievre taunted that Trudeau was “losing control of himself” by screaming and yelling, before dismissing the notion of the auto theft summit. Trudeau shrugged off the attacks, said that they included facts in the release and that they were “rolling up their sleeves” to work with partners rather than just making political attacks.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and raised the pause on the MAiD extension, and wanted Quebec to be able to move ahead. Trudeau trotted out the line of this being a “deeply personal issue” and said that they were trying to find the right balance, and that they would be open to suggestions. Blanchet wanted advance directives to be allowed, and Trudeau reiterated that they were continuing to consider this issue.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he tried to call out a Liberal MP for her remark about the housing crisis in Toronto, and wondered if the prime minister would listen to front line workers instead. Trudeau recited that they are working with partners and listed the actions they are taking. Singh switched to French to decry a woman being kicked out of her apartment and said that the government has the power to resolve the real estate crisis. (How? With a Green Lantern ring?) Trudeau repeated his same response in French.

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Roundup: Scott Moe takes another illegal step

Not satisfied with his plan to break federal laws in not remitting the carbon levy for natural gas, Scott Moe decided that he was going to ramp it up by also not collecting it for electric heating, which is going to be a neat trick when it comes to trying to disaggregating it from regular electricity use. He says they’re going to find out how many homes us it and reduce the levy collection by a formula that approximates what it might be, but it’s still ridiculous and is just more of this very bad trend of premiers who think that they can just get away with violating federal law if they feel like it. But it’s not him that’ll be exposed by this—it’s the CEO and board of SaskPower, just like with SaskEnergy, and they’re the ones exposed to criminal liability for breaking federal law, not Moe, and that should be of concern to anyone in these positions.

Of course, it bears repeating that it’s not the carbon price driving up these costs, really—it’s the utility provider. But that won’t stop Moe and the federal Conservatives from lying about the size and effect of carbon prices as a distraction (or legacy media from not calling it out).

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian missiles struck three towns in Eastern Ukraine—Pokrovsk, Novohrodivka, and Myronhrad, killing two and wounding ten. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited troops on the northeast frontlines, and called for the faster construction of fortifications in key areas under threat from Russian forces.

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Roundup: Clawing back disability benefits

Because the provinces continue to be the absolute worst level of government in the country, we see from the briefing binder of Ontario’s social services minister that the province is looking at ways to “mitigate costs” by clawing back provincial disability support payments once the federal Canadian Disability Benefit gets underway. As you might have guessed, this is entirely the outcome that the federal government has been trying to avoid, and why Carla Qualtrough spent months trying to negotiate with provinces in the lead-up to the framework legislation being passed.

This happened a lot during the height of the pandemic, when certain provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan clawed back any kind of social supports when people accessed CERB, because of course they did. It’s kind of perverse the way that provinces are in the business of literally legislating poverty for vulnerable groups like people with disabilities who generally cannot work (which I should point out is not the same as the programme in the US, where “disability” tends to have a different connotation than in Canada). There is a kind of meanness to it that goes beyond the judgmental protestant work ethic that this seems to stem from.

We’ll see what kinds of safeguards the federal government tries to build into the system as the regulations for these payments—which they point out are intended as an income supplement and not a replacement programme—are rolled out (eventually). But because of the division of powers, there may not be any legislative or regulatory mechanism they could use to protect these payments from clawbacks, and it may rely on negotiations and signed agreements, which is probably easier said than done (particularly as many of these premiers are the absolute worst).

Ukraine Dispatch:

Five people were wounded as part of the largest attack on Kyiv since the start of the war, timed for the commemoration of the Holodomor. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told an international food security conference that Ukraine needs more air defences in order to protect its grain exports, as Russia has been targeting them in recent months.

https://twitter.com/defencehq/status/1728719618317910451

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Roundup: The King will soon appear on your pocket change

It was King Charles III’s 75th birthday yesterday (in his natural capacity—his official birthday as King of Canada is on Victoria Day and as King of the UK in June).

https://twitter.com/RoyalFamily/status/1724367291767267802

So, what did Canada get him? Well, the Royal Canadian Mint unveiled the design of his effigy that will appear on circulation coins (and there’s no telling how long they’ve been sitting on this and waiting for his birthday to announce it, because there’s nothing more that this government loves than to time announcements to specific days), and he got a new lieutenant governor in Ontario.

https://twitter.com/adamgoldenberg/status/1724547305011867823

With the new LG in mind, here’s an exit interview with Elizabeth Dowdeswell, who has been the longest-serving LG in Ontario history, and is the last Harper vice-regal appointee who was still in office (who was chosen though the old vice-regal appointments committee process, which Justin Trudeau trashed for no reason, then replicated for senators).

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces say that Russians are pushing in several directions in the country’s east, and launching even more drones than they were before. European Union leaders are admitting that they’re having trouble meeting their promised ammunition donations to Ukraine because the defence industry is not producing them fast enough, which some are blaming on the EU’s focus on peace and soft power for decades.

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Roundup: An incompetent vaccine rollout

In case you were under any illusion that the Ford government had somehow managed to get past their murderclown-level incompetence as the we’ve moved into the “ignore and hope it goes away” phase of the pandemic, well they haven’t. And the rollout of the latest round of COVID vaccines has proved this yet again as they have mishandled this spectacularly badly. Below is a thread from a Toronto-area pharmacist who is recounting that the Ford government had botched this so badly that they have to stop offering the vaccines. This is very, very bad, but like we’ve established, murderclown-level incompetence from the Ford government from top to bottom.

Way to go, Uncle Doug. Still managing to kill people after all this time.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces continue to hold off Russian advances at Avdiivka, while Russians have started attacking energy systems again in advance of winter. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that they can still deliver battlefield results before the year is out. He also pledged that they can ensure that reconstruction is free of corruption. Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia were told they are advancing in their desire to join the European Union, while Balkan states are being moved to the back of the queue. Russian state media claims they are using Ukrainian POWs as soldiers for their side, but it’s hard to take the claim seriously.

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QP: Champagne, turkeys, and the worst themed questions imaginable

The prime minister was off in Vaughan, Ontario, a housing announcement, while his deputy was on her way to Kingston for a separate event, while some of the other leaders were present in the Chamber. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, reciting talking points and misleading about the promise around food prices, demanded they be reduced immediately. François-Philippe Champagne said that first Poilievre was trying to tell people to buy crypto and now he wanted them to buy $120 turkeys, but they needed to support their legislation on competition. Poilievre called Champagne the “turkey in this joke,” and decried that the price of turkey had gone up 67 percent in eight years. Speaker Fergus warned about comparing members to animals, before Champagne listed the ways in which they are trying to rein in grocery prices. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his demand to bring down prices in the next four days. Champagne loudly declared that he would take no lessons from the Conservatives, and said that he found a Butterball for Poilievre for $30. He got warned about using props, and Poilievre made a little pun about people not wanting Champagne for Thanksgiving, and complained that turkeys these days are skimpy and looked like they have been “taxed to death.” Champagne tried to come back with people not having fun these days, and got applauded by the Conservative benches, before he pitched support for their competition bill. Poilievre gave a few more of his slogans, and Champagne said that the best way to help Canadians was to support their bill.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he railed that Marc Miller not admitting that French is in decline in Quebec. Pablo Rodriguez cautioned that they need to be careful with statistics, because more people are speaking French than ever before, and stated that he was living proof because he grew up speaking Spanish and is now a francophone. Therrien railed that it meant the government could not understand about settlement capacity, and this time Miller got up to point that the statistics the Bloc are citing are about “mother tongue” which is not the same thing as people not speaking French, and that they shouldn’t misrepresent the situation.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he railed that the government is not helping with the price of food by not stamping down on corporate greed. Anita Anand took this one, and patted herself on the back for the government’s programmes to help Canadians. Singh worried that Shopper’s Drug Mart is rolling out American-style healthcare, to which Mark Holland patted himself of the back for reducing drug costs through bulk purchasing and working on pharmacare legislation.

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