Roundup: MPP pay freezes serve no one

There was a piece in the Star yesterday about how MPPs in Ontario have had their salaries frozen since 2008, with no plans to lift it anytime soon. This is the kind of thing that populist rhetoric engenders, and it’s terrible for the state of our politics. While nobody is in politics to get rich, particularly in Canada, we are pretty miserly about what we want to pay our elected officials, and every time there is some kind of economic downturn, we immediately demand that they either freeze or cut their salaries to “set an example” (which is ridiculous because I have yet to see any senior executives in the private sector freeze or cut their pay in response to bad economic times—they get further bonuses, especially if they manage to reduce payroll during said tough times).

It cannot be understated that we underpay our elected officials, particularly at the provincial and federal levels, for jobs that are fairly 24/7 in most instances—especially in the era of social media where they are expected to perform at all hours of the day and night, and where they can’t go to the store without being expected to be “on” and engaging with their constituents. And in a lot of cases, people take a pay cut to become an elected official, particularly if they are doctors or lawyers. We say we want to attract the best, but the longer this kind of thing goes on, the more it will only attract those who are already wealthy and can live with the pay cut. Oh, and Ontario killed their pensions for MPPs decades ago, so on top of being underpaid, they don’t get a pension out of it either, which just makes it all the worse proposition for someone.

Nevertheless, we already have the astroturfers at the so-called “Canadian Taxpayers Federation” griping that Toronto City Council and the mayor are getting a modest pay rise this year, and because legacy media laps up everything they put out, this feeds the hairshirt parsimony and cheap outrage that makes us look as petty and parochial as our worst instincts tend to be. (Tall poppy syndrome is absolutely one of our national neuroses). This isn’t good for democracy, but nobody wants to make that case, which is why we’re in the situation we’re in.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian missiles hit an apartment building and a medical centre in Kharkiv early Wednesday; Russia claims it was precision-targeting a building housing “foreign fighters” that included French mercenaries. Ukrainian forces also downed19 out of 20 drones targeting Odesa. The fighting has intensified near Bakhmut, as Russian forces are making more offensive assaults.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1747574419994648962

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Roundup: Rachel Notley announces her departure

In a move that has been expected for over a month now, Alberta NDP leader and former premier Rachel Notley announced that she’ll step down as soon as her replacement is chosen, and no, she has absolutely ambition to run federally. It’s probably a good thing that Notley has decided enough is enough, thus avoiding becoming another Andrea Horwath, and frankly, considering how she managed to lose the debate against Danielle Smith, and from there the election, well, it was probably time to call it a day and let a fresher face take over.

It’s not an exaggeration to say that Notley’s time in Alberta politics was transformational—even though her rise to government was largely accidental (voters looking to punish Jim Prentice’s PC government for having the temerity to tell them to “look in the mirror” about demanding high services and low taxes had no other options as the provincial Liberals’ leader just bailed and the Wildrose were decimated after Danielle Smith crossed the floor with most of their MLAs), she managed to run a government that was reasonably competent in a province where one-party rule had left them corrupt and unable to do things like come up with realistic budgets that didn’t involve throwing money at problems. She did what every NDP organisation dreams of and decimated the provincial Liberal party, forcing the centrist voters in the province to her banner by running more to the centre herself, and essentially turning the province into a two-party race. But it’s also notable how her success also had a lot to do with moving away from standard NDP dogma.

Here are some reactions to her announcement (and I thought Jagmeet Singh’s was especially hilarious considering how she spent most of her time in office distancing herself from him), a few biographical details, and a look at her legacy.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Unsurprisingly, the higher intensity of Russian attacks led to a sharp increase in civilian deaths over December. Meanwhile, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is attending the World Economic Forum in Davos to drum up more support from partners, and met with Antony Blinken while he was there. (No doubt Conservatives in Canada are going to hold this attendance at Davos against him, because conspiracy theories).

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1747261931164192849

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Roundup: Fergus at the NDP’s mercy

It looks like Speaker Greg Fergus may last another day, as the word from the NDP is that they’re going to demand a fine and another apology to the House of Commons for his lapse in judgment over that video he recorded, though I have to wonder what they think a fine is going to accomplish. That report from the Procedure and House Affairs Committee will be tabled in the Commons by Thursday, so we’ll see if there’s any kind of vote or concurrence debate at that point. And there may yet be, as Andrew Scheer is promising that he’s going to move a vote of non-confidence in the Speaker, possibly in the hopes that he can shake enough NDP MPs loose to oust Fergus. As for the Bloc, Yves-François Blanchet said that perhaps it’s time for a woman in the position, as though Alexandra Mendès hasn’t been there as Assistant Deputy Speaker the whole time, and has twice now run for the position and not gotten enough votes for it.

On the subject of the Speaker, Carleton University’s Philippe Lagassé made some comments to the Hill Times about the fact that we do treat the neutrality of the Speaker in Canada as much more of an illusion than Westminster does. He also suggests we start adopting more Westminster practices like the Speaker running for re-election as an independent, and that past Speakers be appointed to the Lords/Senate where they can continue to serve in less partisan roles, rather than having them rejoin the party ranks (and absolutely not have them run for party leader, Andrew Scheer).

Ukraine Dispatch:

An overnight missile attack on Kyiv has resulted in 45 injuries, while nearly 600 shells and rockets rained down on the southern part of the country amidst a major cyberattack on the country’s largest telecom provider. A US intelligence report estimates that Russia has suffered 315,000 casualties, which is about 90 percent of the forces it began the conflict with. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Washington DC doesn’t appear to have swayed too many Republicans, while he continued to insist that asking to give Russia land concessions was insane because it meant abandoning families and children to terrorists.

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Roundup: Reaction to Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine

Russian forces have been advancing in Ukraine, but not without opposition. Shelling continues against several Ukrainian cities and into Kyiv itself, as people are taking shelter in the metro. Closer to home, prime minister Justin Trudeau announced another round of tougher sanctions against Russian oligarchs and other key leaders, and there is talk that yet more sanctions are on the way, but it also sounds like there is some difficulty in getting all of our allies on-side, and the thing about these kinds of sanctions is that everyone needs to do them so that there aren’t loopholes that Russia can slip through. (Trudeau also announced measures to help Canadians in Ukraine get safe passage to neighbouring countries, as well as expeditated immigration processing for Ukrainians).

But one of the biggest measures—cutting Russia out of the SWIFT global financial transaction system—has not yet been implemented because Europeans are balking (though Canada has reportedly been pushing for this, along with the UK). Canada is somewhat fortunate because we are less exposed to Russian trade and money than other allies, but it’s that exposure which will make sanctions harder on Western allies the tougher they are on Russia—and that’s something that a lot of the talking heads can’t seem to get their heads around. If you look at what European countries are trying to get carve-outs for, it’s because they don’t want to lose the Russian money in their economies. And that’s a tough pill to swallow, especially as all of our economies are still recovering from the pandemic recession.

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https://twitter.com/MatinaStevis/status/1496758467943866374

Where this will hurt us especially is higher world oil prices, as cutting Russia out of the market will further restrict supply at a time where energy shortages in certain countries have turned to oil to fill that gap, creating demand and limiting supply. That will mean higher gasoline prices in Canada, and while these higher prices will be good for the Alberta economy (oh, look—one more boom for them to piss away), it’s going to be felt in the inflation data, which will have more people lighting their hair on fire, demanding Something Must Be Done, but they won’t come out and spell out that they mean wage and price controls, or a new NEP. Jason Kenney, unable to read the room, is trying to make this about a new pitch for Alberta’s so-called Ethical Oil™, and we have federal Conservatives demanding a fast-tracked LNG infrastructure to export to Europe, but seriously, that’s a multi-year and multi-billion-dollar investment that is going to be short-lived the fast were decarbonise our economies.

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Roundup: A refreshed Cabinet for a new parliament

So, that was the big Cabinet shuffle. It was extensive, and we saw three ministers dropped entirely (not the first time), a few promotions, a few demotions, and a lot more hybrid and chimeric ministries which will make governance a challenge to say the least. Nevertheless, here we are. Some observations:

  • This was not a new Cabinet or ministry – this was just a shuffle. It’s also not a third term or mandate, because we don’t have those in Canada – it’s the third parliament that the current ministry has spanned.
  • Marc Garneau’s exclusion from Cabinet has fuelled rumours he’s about to become ambassador to France. My presumption is that Bardish Chagger’s exclusion is because she is going to be the new Whip, as the old Whip and his deputy are now in Cabinet. Jim Carr’s departure may be health-related.
  • After Trudeau had rather bravely centralized all of the economic development agencies under one roof and didn’t have them beholden to local ministers and the corrupting influence that offers, he has relented and re-established the practice of regional economic development ministers again, and undone the work of trying to clean up the mess they create.
  • The most important portfolios – finance, defence, foreign affairs – are now all held by women. Anita Anand is the second woman defence minister in Canadian history (the first being Kim Campbell), and her background as a law professor specializing in governance can only help in a role where there has been a crisis in civilian oversight. As foreign affairs minister, Mélanie Joly will have to deal with the tensions between the US and China (and our general lack of a coherent foreign policy).
  • Splitting up Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness was a good and necessary thing; giving Bill Blair emergency preparedness and not public safety is an even better thing because Blair was essentially at risk of capture in the role as a former police chief (with a questionable record around actions of the Toronto Police during the G20 to boot).
  • There are nine new faces in this configuration of Cabinet, and more diversity – the first Black woman since Jean Augustine, the first out lesbian minister, and the queerest Cabinet in Canadian history.
  • Putting Steven Guilbeault in environment may yet be a huge disaster given how badly he mismanaged Bill C-10, but Jonathan Wilkinson in natural resources will likely mean a steadier hand on some of those files where the two overlap.
  • Carving off an associate health minister portfolio for Carolyn Bennett to deal with addictions and mental health is a bit of a throwback to when she was the first minister of state for the newly-created Public Health Agency of Canada, back in the Paul Martin era. Jean-Yves Duclos in health – an economist who did a lot of work on poverty reduction – means he’s not going to be fooled by provinces trying to get more money out of the federal government that they plan to spend elsewhere.
  • Trudeau says he plans to lead the Liberals in the next election, but I’m not sure I believe him, and of course he’d say that now. He wouldn’t actually say he plans to leave until it comes time to do so, lest he turn himself into a lame duck without any moral authority to get anything done.

And now, the talking heads. Aaron Wherry hears from a Senior Liberal Source™ that the message of this Cabinet is the need for urgent delivery of promises. Heather Scoffield makes note of the activists leading the environment and housing files. Jason Markusoff highlights the squirming that Jason Kenney and others are doing now that Steven Guilbeault is the environment minister. Althia Raj sees some attempted legacy-building in Trudeau’s choices.

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Roundup: A vote devoid of real meaning

As expected, the Conservative caucus voted for the (garbage) Reform Act proposals that give them the option to demand a leadership review, and as expected, the media fell all over themselves to interpret some kind of significance into this, including the fact that the same thing happened after the last election when Andrew Scheer was still the leader – never mind that the Reform Act had precisely zero to do with Scheer’s demise.

And while everyone was smiling and preaching unity coming out of the meeting, there are still sore MPs, who are concerned about the losses they suffered, and that their promised gains in places like the GTA didn’t materialise. MP Scott Reid is openly decrying that the party is being run like a “petty tyranny” where policy positions like the carbon price was imposed on them without discussion or even notice (as Reid was running to be caucus chair). So clearly they still have some healing to do, but I wouldn’t read any significance into the (garbage) Reform Act vote, because all it will do is insulate Erin O’Toole.

Meanwhile, I am concerned at some of the delusion that seems to have set into the party, as O’Toole went into the meeting telling the assembled reporters that it was the Liberals and People’s Party who spent the campaign misleading people and sowing division. I mean, serial liar Erin O’Toole, who attempted to make the falsehood of a non-existent Liberal plan to tax home equity a campaign issue, says it was the other guys who thrived on misleading people. I’d say it was unbelievable, but it was simply one more lie that O’Toole effortlessly spouts. Later in the day, Michael Chong was on Power & Politics, and when O’Toole’s constantly shifting positions on issues like gun control were raised, he called it a “Liberal trap.” Erm, it’s O’Toole’s shifting position – that’s on him. Chong also declared that it was wrong to make vaccination a wedge issue because anti-vaxxers felt like “hunted prey,” which is…warped. When you have a group of people who are prolonging the pandemic and endangering the lives of others, whether it’s directly with the virus or because they have overwhelmed the healthcare capacity that vaccinated people require, they should be made to feel social stigma. That’s the point. That Chong is going to bat for them demonstrates why his party continues to be tone deaf about the course of this pandemic.

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1445387619215552520

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Roundup: Subjecting a minister to a double standard

I found myself bemused at the CBC story yesterday about Carolyn Bennett’s office allegedly being some kind of “toxic work environment,” according to a number of former staffers. Reading the piece, however, says little about Bennett herself – other than hammering on the point that she didn’t get along with Jody Wilson-Raybould, as though that were somehow relevant to her office – but rather that the toxicity was related to other staffers in the office who were clannish and played favourites with other staffers. The story made great pains to say that Indigenous staff felt their voices weren’t being heard on policy files, but again, this is about the behaviors of other staffers and not the minister herself.

This all having been said, I am forced to wonder whether anyone could reasonably expect a minister’s office to be some kind of normal office environment, because I can’t really see it. These places are pressure cookers of constant deadlines and stress, and there’s a reason why they tend to be populated by fairly young staffers, many of them recent graduates, which is because they are willing to put up with the long hours, constant travel, and the obliteration of their personal lives where older staffers with families and obligations largely wouldn’t. And while we can say we’d prefer that these offices are healthy work environments and safe spaces, but this is politics at the highest levels in this country. It’s not going to be pretty, as much as we may like it to be.

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I also think it bears noting that Bennett has been the subject of a lot of criticism that is never given to male ministers, and in particular with the dust-up over her snarky text message with Wilson-Raybould a few weeks ago, seems subject to a double standard that women in ministerial roles are not allowed to have personality conflicts where this, again, is not even blinked at among men. Under this context, the CBC piece looks to be both catering to these double-standards, and looking like they have an axe to grind with Bennett, for whatever the reason.

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Roundup: The Republic of the Northwest wank-off

With an election soon to be called in Alberta, we’re going to start seeing all manner of ludicrous stories related to it, and lo, Maclean’s brings us an imagining of the future history of the “Republic of the Northwest,” which is apparently what a would become of a future Alberta-Saskatchewan-Manitoba-parts-of-BC-and-the-North seccession from Canada. The piece should have instead come with a mature content warning, as it’s basically the two authors jerking one another off to the masturbatory fantasy of a “more prosperous, freer, and more patriotic” future that is never going to be. Why? Because they simply glossed over all of the hard things that such a future would entail, the biggest and most obvious obstacle being the fate of the Indigenous populations. Sure, all of their environmental concerns are just “Laurentian Canadian” bureaucratic meddling. Apparently once Ottawa was out of the way, this new Republic (and curious that such a “patriotic” imagined country would not retain the Crown, if this is supposed to be some kind of small-c conservative fantasy that doesn’t involve being immediately swallowed up by the US), all kinds of pipelines could get built in mere months, with no obstacles whatsoever! Sure, the tidewater is all in Northern BC because the southern coast wouldn’t separate with them, but that won’t affect things! There weren’t any domestic environmentalists in this new country – they were apparently either all figments of Ottawa that were rained upon them, or they were all subject to mass arrest in this “freer” country. There were no Indigenous protests. There were no concerns about actual economic viability of these pipelines with relation to future capacity, or the fact that there is an ongoing global supply glut of oil and dumping more Alberta crude into the world economy wouldn’t be subject to yet more price declines because of basic laws of supply and demand. Nope – it’s all just freedom and prosperity!

And that’s not even to talk about how much they glossed over in terms of what separation would actually mean for the country, from fiscal arrangements, armed forces (do you think they’d just let them take half of the fighter fleet and a chunk of the Navy for their strip of Northern BC Coast line?), and again, the reality of treaties with Indigenous peoples with the Crown of Canada. Honest to Hermes, my eyes could not stop rolling the entirety of this piece. And the worst part is that there is a cohort of Albertans who think this is a plausible vision of the future. They all need to give their heads a shake, and the pair who wrote this piece need to wake up to reality.

On a related note, Jen Gerson digs into the looming problem of Alberta not really preparing for a future with a decreased oil demand, as they prefer instead to keep waiting on the next oil boom. (As the bumper sticker says, “Please God, give us another boom, and I promise not to piss it away this time.”) Yes, the province’s economy has diversified somewhat, but it’s still very dependent on oil revenues. That said, the Bank of Canada did note that the share of GDP that the oil sector is responsible for has diminished a fair amount since the 2015 oil shock, and it’s now less than IT services. The big problem the province is going to have is what to do with all of its under-educated young men, who either quit school or barely got their high school diploma while counting on lucrative oil sector employment. Those days are dwindling, and there will need to be plans to help them transition, sooner than later.

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Senate QP: Carolyn Bennett meanders a bit

This week for ministerial QP in the Senate, the special guest star was Dr. Carolyn Bennett, minister for Crown-Indigenous relations, her first time since the Indigenous and Northern Affairs portfolio was split into two. Senator Larry Smith started off, worrying that Northern and Indigenous groups said that they had not been consulted at all when it came to marijuana legalization. Bennett responded that every minister was supposed to build capacity in their own departments to do consultations with Indigenous communities. Smith asked if she had heard anything from Northern communities regarding the legalization of marijuana, particularly around mental health supports. Bennett noted that she was aware that some substance abuse stems from trauma related to things like residential schools, which is why they had a trauma-informed approach and that they were looking at healing and dignity moving forward.

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Senate QP: Indigenous issues on the floor

It was actually the second Senate ministerial QP of 2017, but I wound up missing last week’s for the McCallum/Dion farewell speeches. Alas. This week it was Carolyn Bennett’s turn to face the upper chamber and be held to account. Senator Beth Marshall started off, asking about only 12 percent of First Nations infrastructure funds being allocated. Bennett said that the regions can now approve up to $50 million without needing to get approval from the centre, but that 100 percent of the funding would be allocated and on its way out the door by the end of March. Marshall asked whether the projects would be posted on the department website so that there is some accountability, and Bennett indicated that it would be in a bit of a roundabout way, talking about the importance of water projects that would soon be announced.

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