While the PM was present once again for QP, the finance minister was over in the lock-up for the fiscal update, and Andrew Scheer was…elsewhere. Again. Lisa Raitt led off, and true to form, wanted to know when the budget would be balanced. Justin Trudeau stated that no government in history added more to the debt than Stephen Harper, and praised his own record on growth and employment. Raitt tried again, and Trudeau lambasted the Conservative record on deficits and noted the decrease in the debt-to-GDP ratio. Raitt accused Trudeau of being arrogant for breaking promises, and Trudeau listed off the Conservative record of cuts and low growth. Alain Rayes took over to ask again in French, and this time Trudeau picked up a sheet to talk about how many children in Rayes’ riding were being helped by the Canada Child Benefit. Rayes tried one last time, and Trudeau lauded his party’s record of economic growth. Guy Caron was up next, and he railed about the possibility that the government would legislate an end to the Canada Post labour dispute. Trudeau took up a script to read that they believe in collective bargaining, but that legislation was not a step they took lightly, but they were prepare to act. Caron switched to English to ask the same thing, and Trudeau read the French version of his script. Karine Trudel said the reported mail backlogs were exaggerated and that Canada Post was creating an artificial crisis, to which Trudeau remarked, without script, that they were working in partnership with unions, but they were ready to act if they couldn’t come to an agreement. Irene Mathyssen tried one last time in English, and Trudeau insisted that they transformed the relationship between the government and organised labour.
Tag Archives: Canada Post
Roundup: Saudi oil and AG reports
While the issue of Saudi Arabia continues to make headlines, Chrystia Freeland insisted that she doesn’t consider the case closed and more sanctions are being contemplated. She also said in QP yesterday that no future export permits will be granted to the kingdom (in reference to the LAVs we’ve been selling to them).
Chrystia Freeland just said no new export permits will be given to Saudi Arabia re: LAVs. #QP
— Dale Smith (@journo_dale) November 20, 2018
Of course, when I tweeted this, my reply column filled up with a bunch of indignant people who demanded to know when we would stop buying Saudi oil and use Alberta oil in Eastern Canada instead. Let me assure you that it’s never going to happen. If we don’t buy Saudi oil, it won’t impact their bottom line in the slightest. The amount we import from them is a rounding error on their books. Add to that, Energy East was never about domestic supply – it was about export via the long route. If by some miracle, a future Andrew Scheer government not only built said pipeline and they demanded that Eastern Canada start using Alberta oil, he would essentially be demanding that Alberta take a $10/barrel discount on that oil, because economics. I seem to recall a former prime minister who remains demonised in Alberta to this day because he wanted to ensure domestic supply, which would mean Alberta got a lower price for their barrels. Why would Scheer want to repeat that very same policy, but wrapped in an “ethical oil” cloak?
Auditor General’s report
Yesterday was the fall report of the Auditor General, and there were reports on:
- The fighter jet procurement programme got a spanking, and particular attention was paid to the retention problems around pilots and mechanics.
- Security at many of our embassies is falling behind; the government blames the Harper era for lack of investment.
- The military isn’t stamping out harassment as quickly as it should because there is no coordination in its programmes, resulting in a number of gaps.
- There is a lack of both a strategy and budget for rural Internet connectivity.
- CRA gives people inconsistent treatment, and where you live can determine how friendly your local regional tax office is.
- Inmates eligible for parole are being kept in prison for longer than necessary because of a lack of halfway houses and parole officers.
- The lack of coordination between departments means the government may not even know which historic buildings they own.
QP: Lies versus pabulum, part eleventy-seven
While Justin Trudeau was not present today, just off of a plane from France, Singapore and Papua New Guinea. That said, Andrew Scheer was not present today either, for whatever reason. Alain Rayes led off, worried that the budget would not balance in 2019. Bill Morneau responded with a question of his own — where are we now? He went on to extol the low unemployment rates and the investments to grow the economy. Rayes repeated the question, and Morneau responded that the Conservatives only wanted to make cuts while the Liberal approach was working for growth. Rayes concerned trolled that the budget was “collapsing” under the weight of deficits, but Morneau retorted with the Conservative record of debts and low growth, while they have turned the growth rate around. Candice Bergen took over to ask again in English, railing that the Liberals were irresponsible, to which Morneau repeated his pabulum points in English about low unemployment and high growth. Bergen tried one last time, and Morneau noted the reduction in small business taxes and the lowest level of debt-to-GDP in the G7. Guy Caron was up next for the NDP, and he worried about the pressure to cut corporate taxes to follow the US example. Morneau said that it was necessary to strike a balance to ensure tax fairness and competitiveness, and that was the approach they were taking. Caron worried about corporate “dead money,” and Morneau reiterated his points about striking the right balance. Peter Julian worried about record levels of personal debt and demanded that they end “corporate giveaways,” to which Morneau assured him that they were investing in Canadians by means like the Canada Child Benefit. Julian demanded investments in pharmacare, to which Ginette Petitpas Taylor recited the implementation on the consultations that would produce a report in the spring.
Roundup: Fiscal update spin incoming
This week is the federal government’s autumn fiscal update, and we’ve already seen a pre-emptive push by the Conservatives to try and set a narrative about the government’s deficit. Andrew Scheer took time out yesterday to hold a press conference to say that he plans to force a vote that would demand that the government set a date for a balanced budget. And yes, the shitposts over social media have already begun.
Reminder: There was a $70 billion hole in GDP when the Liberals took over thanks in part to the brief recession and oil price crash. https://t.co/TkQF0frRoN
— Dale Smith (@journo_dale) November 18, 2018
So, a few things to keep in mind this week about the narratives that will be spun:
- The Conservatives will insist that they left the Liberals with a surplus and a “strong economy.” That’s not entirely true – the “surplus” was on paper and it included a lot of “savings” that the Conservatives falsely booked that never came to pass (e.g. Shared Services Canada, Phoenix). The Liberals will also point to stagnant growth rates.
- There was a $70 billion hole between the fiscal situation that the Liberals found themselves in compared to the 2015 budget the Conservatives ran the election on. This would have been there regardless of who won the election. The Liberals had a choice to make – honour their spending promises, or honour their promise to balance the budget. They chose the former, and their spending has been largely in line with what was promised.
- There is no debt crisis looming. The debt-to-GDP ratio is declining, and is the best in the Western world. Government debt is not like credit card debt, so equating the two in shitposts like Scheer does only serves to sow confusion and is a dishonest attempt to look like the government is “bankrupt.” Also remember that much of the deficit spending under this government has been at a time when interest rates were at historic lows, which is not credit card interest rates.
https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1064271285511811072
1) A declining debt-to-GDP ratio doesn’t necessarily mean higher taxes tomorrow.
2) Government debt is not credit card debt. Trying to equate them is disingenuous.
3) He inherited books in $70 billion worse shape than advertised.Could we discuss finances using facts? https://t.co/txnFh53xcT
— Dale Smith (@journo_dale) November 19, 2018
I am an economist and I know both that sovereign debt is nothing like an unpaid credit card bill and credit card debt doesn't pass through an estate to heirs in Canada. But, while we're on the subject, would you describe the debt increase of 2008-2014 as intergenerational theft? https://t.co/5utQ1ZJttz
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) November 19, 2018
You can also expect a bunch of calls this week to cut corporate taxes like they did in the US, citing competitiveness, but again, there are things to remember about those US tax cuts – namely that their deficit is currently around $1 trillion, that those cuts are the economic equivalent of a sugar rush for which there are few long-term gains being made, and most of those cuts resulted in larger corporate dividends and share buy-backs rather than re-investment in companies or workforces. There’s a reason why Bill Morneau hasn’t jumped on this, and we’ll see what his response will be.
Roundup: Endorsing the Brexitshambles
In case you haven’t been paying attention, Britain is currently in a state of utter omnishambles as they try to deal with Brexit. A potential deal that was reached resulted in Cabinet resignations, and some very real threats not only to Theresa May remaining as PM, but possibly toppling the government as a whole. It’s lunacy over there right now. Back here in Canada, Andrew Scheer has decided that this was the right time to reiterate his support for Brexit. Because “sovereignty.”
As much as I would like Iannucci to write a Brexit season of “The Thick of It,” I’m not sure anything could top what is going on currently. https://t.co/MPffCweFRH
— Dale Smith (@journo_dale) November 15, 2018
While Scheer can bang on about how much control the UK gave up to the EU, and repeating falsehoods like the canard about the EU having regulations around the curvature of bananas, he both ignores that the EU has created a peace that has been unknown in Europe for centuries, and the fact that much of the Brexit campaign was fuelled by straight-up xenophobia. It’s this latter aspect that is particularly relevant because it’s part of a pattern we’re seeing with Conservatives, as John Geddes pointed out a couple of months ago – that they have this inability to orient themselves in a plausible way with the current nationalist populist trends in conservatism globally. Add to that, there is this naïve notion that they can somehow play with just enough extremism without it going into outright xenophobia or racism (and we’re especially seeing this playout with Maxime Bernier who blows the xenophobia tuba and then acts bewildered that white nationalists start showing up in his new party). But you can’t play with “just enough” extremism, because you can’t actually contain it. And when you wink about things enough times, you can’t act shocked and surprised when your adherents spell out what you were saying – like that post from a riding association Facebook account that posted Harjit Sajjan’s photo with the tagline “this is what happens when you have a Cabinet based on affirmative action.” They’ve only stated repeatedly that ministers in the Liberal cabinet are only there to fill quotas (whereas everyone in the Conservative Cabinet was there “on merit,”) but the moment someone puts Sajjan’s face next to that, well no, that’s totally not what they meant at all. Sure, Jan. And that’s why you can’t actually claim that Brexit is all about “sovereignty,” because it absolutely wasn’t. You can’t divorce the inflated sovereignty concern trolling from the xenophobia – it’s the same mentality as trying to assert that you can use “just enough” extremism for your political ends, but not go all the way.
Meanwhile, Andrew Coyne remains boggled by Scheer’s continued endorsement of Brexit, and wonders if he’s trying to appropriate some of its populist nationalism (the aforementioned “just enough” extremism).
Roundup: An odious historical comparison
While crude prices in Western Canada continue to take a beating (in part because there is a global supply glut in the market and there are questions about why oil prices got as high as they did recently given market conditions), there are other concerns about investors fleeing the country. Not all, mind you – there are still a number of big-ticket energy projects being signed in the country which defies this narrative that’s going on, but I have to pause on some of the overheated rhetoric being bandied about here, because we need to inject some perspective into the conversation.
Other heavy oils trade for a few dollars or so less than the global Brent price ($66).
Huge, huge, huge gap between prices fetched for Canadian oil vs. pretty much everyone else.— Josh Wingrove (@josh_wingrove) November 15, 2018
For one, the lack of infrastructure to tidewater is because there simply wasn’t an economic case for it until recently. It’s hard to complain that we don’t have it when there was no proper rationale for its existence. Same with refineries – it’s a low-margin exercise and refineries cost billions of dollars to build, and the economic case for building more of them has largely not been there. It’s not just because we have tough environmental regulations in Canada that these projects don’t exist – there weren’t the market conditions.
The other thing that really sets off my alarm bells is this pervasive talking point among oil industry boosters that Canada once built railways, so we should therefore be able to build pipelines. This kind of talk should be utterly galling to anyone who has a modicum of understanding of history in this country, because the railways were built by virtual slave labour from China, following the relocation of Indigenous tribes across the prairies due to starvation and inadequate government aid (while there is some debate over how deliberately starvation was used to force compliance). This is not the kind of thing you want to be touting when it comes to building pipelines, particularly if those opposing construction are other Indigenous communities. And as I’ve pointed out repeatedly, it’s not the high bar of environmental regulations that are killing projects – it’s the fact that successive governments and proponents have tried cutting corners to weasel out of their obligations, and that’s what hurts them, not the minimal additional work it would have taken to properly fulfil those obligations. I get that they’re looking for scapegoats during these trying times for the energy sector, and that nobody wants to look in the mirror, but honestly, trying to compare the railways to this current situation is borderline offensive to anyone who has a modicum of historical knowledge.
Roundup: An oil conundrum
There’s an interesting conundrum happening in Alberta, where the premier and industry leaders are talking about production cuts owing to the supply glut and lack of refining capacity in the US being responsible for near-record lows for Canadian exports. The problem of course is whether the premier should use powers that haven’t been exercised since the days of Peter Lougheed, or if oil companies should voluntarily reduce their own production – and if they do, does this constitute price-fixing? There isn’t any easy solution to any of this, and it’s not just build more pipelines – they would only need to be pipelines to tidewater in order to find markets not hampered by the current refining shutdowns in the US, and that are prepared to take heavy oil and diluted bitumen. It’s also a bit on the unfair side to say that it’s simply “regulatory and political” challenges – as we’ve seen from successive court decisions is that attempts to take shortcuts and to weasel out of obligations is what’s causing delays and to have permits revoked. In other words, part of the problem is self-inflicted, and they try to hand-wave around it by crying “national interest” as though that makes it better.
Here’s a lengthy but good explanatory thread from Josh Wingrove, and it’s well worth paying attention to, because there’s a lot of demagoguery floating around about the issue, and it pays to be informed about why prices are low, and why it’s not something you can wave a magic wand to fix.
https://twitter.com/josh_wingrove/status/1062817943812218894
How bad is it? Bad. On Labour Day, a barrel Canadian heavy oil was selling for $45 U.S. (down already from $55 in July).
Now, it's selling for $15.75. A drop of two-thirds in two-and-a-half months. pic.twitter.com/NLIIETzVxp— Josh Wingrove (@josh_wingrove) November 14, 2018
This came to a head last month when Rachel Notley, the Alberta premier, led a closed-door meeting that hinged largely on the issue, sources tell me. It basically pitted oil producers against "integrated" ones that also have transport and refining capacity.
— Josh Wingrove (@josh_wingrove) November 14, 2018
Also out of luck is Alberta — royalties are obviously much lower when prices are low. It's desperate times already for the Alberta treasury and this isn't helping.
— Josh Wingrove (@josh_wingrove) November 14, 2018
Of course, looming large in all of this is a feeling of we-wouldn't-be-in-this-mess-if-we'd-gotten-another-big-pipeline. KXL, TransMountain, Gateway, Energy East, whatever. No new pipes + loads of new production = problem.
— Josh Wingrove (@josh_wingrove) November 14, 2018
Advocates of a forced cut say it would be temporary — maybe only a few months. Wait until supply levels come down and storage space opens up and maybe the price plunge stops. Maybe prices even recover.
— Josh Wingrove (@josh_wingrove) November 14, 2018
Imperial Oil opposes intervention, we're told. Their CEO said this month: “Our view is you live with the consequences of your decisions in your investments and we're quite happy that we are an integrated and a balanced company.''
— Josh Wingrove (@josh_wingrove) November 14, 2018
In the meantime, companies are already cutting production on their own. That'll be pretty messy, and brutal. Whomever has the highest-cost barrels will be forced to take them offline, cut production, probably cut jobs.
— Josh Wingrove (@josh_wingrove) November 14, 2018
In the meantime, regardless of what you think about WHETHER Canada should sell oil, it's selling oil at a near-record discount to U.S. prices, which are falling themselves.
Doesn't look to be an easy fix.
— Josh Wingrove (@josh_wingrove) November 14, 2018
Roundup: Parting shots after the furore
As the furore around the transfer of Tori Stafford’s killer dies down now that she has been moved back to another medium-security facility (but not “behind bars” as there aren’t any in women’s institutions in this country), the Conservatives and Conservatives are trying to get parting shots in. While the Conservatives have been demanding apologies from the Liberals because they’re still sore that they were called ambulance chasers, the Liberals’ parting shot was delivered on Friday as Karen McCrimmon, the parliamentary secretary for public safety, let it be known on Power & Politics that other child killers were transferred to healing lodges under the Conservatives. Hold up, said P&P, and while McCrimmon couldn’t give any names, the show went and checked. And lo, since 2011, twenty people convicted of killing a minor have been moved to healing lodges, 14 of them under the Conservatives. Now, we don’t know any of the details of these transfers, and how along they were in their sentences, or anything like that, because the families of the victims didn’t come forward like Stafford’s father did. But it certainly blows the Conservative narrative that this is somehow a Trudeau/Liberal “soft on crime” policy out of the water.
When I worked in Opposition we often checked to see what our own record was before criticizing the Government. #HelpfulTip #cdnpoli
— Greg MacEachern (@gmacofglebe) November 13, 2018
ICYMI, here's my exchange w/PMJT in the @HoCChamber last week. After months of dodging responsibility & insulting those who disagreed w/him, he finally put Tori Stafford's killer back behind bars, only because of public outcry & pressure from Conservatives:https://t.co/ejbhTpglUD
— Mark Strahl, MP (@markstrahl) November 13, 2018
So, a couple of observations: The Conservatives keep insisting that they weren’t the ones who politicised the issue, and yet they are simultaneously patting themselves on the back for “forcing” the government to act, when the government ordered a review within a couple of days of this transfer going public. That sounds an awful lot like politicising it. Their talking heads have also been going onto the talk shows to insist that the Liberals were the ones who started the “name calling” and “insults” first, when it was only after a day of sustained questions that got increasingly graphic and overwrought that Trudeau accused them of ambulance-chasing politics. In other words, they are trying to play victim. There is also a certain amount of utter shamelessness when they insist that things that happened under their watch (the aforementioned killer being transferred from maximum to medium security, or now these other child-killer transfers) are somehow different because we’re talking about the here and now. I get that this is politics, but at some point, one has to wonder why there is a lack of shame around any of what goes on.
Roundup: A policy reviewed and changed
The government announced that their review of the transfer of inmates to Indigenous healing lodges is complete, and they made some changes to the policy to tighten the conditions. While they wouldn’t say directly, it was confirmed that Tori Stafford’s killer was reassigned from the healing lodge she had been transferred to back to an institution. Cue the self-congratulation from the Conservatives, who assert that the killer is back “behind bars.” But there are a few things we need to unpack here because some of this back-patting is disingenuous.
First of all, these healing lodges are still prisons. Said killer went from one medium-security facility to another medium-security facility. While Andrew Scheer kept insisting that she was moved to a “condo,” he is not only lying about what a healing lodge is, he is also misconstruing what conditions in women’s institutions in this country are like. There are no longer any of the kinds of cells and bars or high walls that you see on television – women’s institutions largely feature campus-like atmospheres, with apartment-like dwellings. Indeed, the facility she’s been transferred to post lodge is described as “a minimum security residential-style apartment unit and residential-style small group accommodation houses for minimum and medium-security inmates in an open campus design model.” So much for the crowing that she’s back behind bars.
There is also the self-congratulation in saying that they embarrassed the government into taking this action, and that this somehow disproves what the government said about not being able to act to transfer her. This is again disingenuous – when it came to light, the government ordered a review, and the policy writ-large was changed. They didn’t order an individual transfer, because that would be abusing their authority to do so. Now, there are some genuine questions as to how appropriate it is to change policies based on a single case, but insisting that they did what the Conservatives asked is not exactly true. Worse, however, is the unmitigated gall of the Conservatives demanding apologies and insisting that it was the Liberals who politicised the issue when they were the ones who decided to start reading the graphic details of Stafford’s murder into the record in the House of Commons. They’re still sore that they’ve been called ambulance chasers, which they insist is some kind of grievous insult, however their behaviour in the Commons around this issue was hardly decorous. An issue was raised, the policy was reviewed and changed, and the process worked. But trying to play victim over it is taking things a little too far.
https://twitter.com/journo_dale/status/1060641966776475648
QP: A bizarre question to Trump
The prime minister was present today, the third day this week, but Andrew Scheer was elsewhere. That left Gérard Deltell to lead off, asking about the announced job losses at Bombardier, and he worried about the federal loan extended to the company. Justin Trudeau took up a script to say that their thoughts were with those affected, before reading praise about the Canadian aerospace sector. Deltell moved onto Di Iorio’s planned resignation, and worried it would be too late for a by-election. Trudeau read that the member intended to resign. Deltell asked about Di Iorio’s “special mission,” and Trudeau read a similar script about how MPs are expected to work on behalf of there constituents. Mark Strahl got up next to rail about Tori Stafford’s killer, and demanded an apology to Stafford’s family for forcing them to fight the government. Trudeau read that they reviewed the medium security transfer policies and they made improvements. Strahl railed about how that was an admission that they had the power to transfer her beforehand, and Trudeau didn’t use a script this time to reiterate the same response, with added empathy to the family. Guy Caron was up next, returning to the topic of Bombardier, but was particularly concerned about its executive bonuses. Trudeau picked his script back up to read about their thoughts with the workers and yay aerospace. Caron switched to English to Rae the question again, and Trudeau responded by reading the English version of his own script. Tracey Ramsey was incredulous that the prime minister said he wouldn’t have his photo taken signing the new NAFTA so long as the steel and aluminium tariffs were in place. Trudeau quipped that Ramsey’s region was in favour of the agreement before reading about his support for the industries affected. Alexandre Boulerice got up to repeat the question in French, to which Trudeau read Boulerice’s praise for the agreement.
You can tell it’s the Thursday before a break week because everyone is phoning in their scripted outrage today. #QP
— Dale Smith (@journo_dale) November 8, 2018
That's the fourth time the Prime Minister's heart has gone out. It's like a Celine Dion song on repeat.
— John Ivison (@IvisonJ) November 8, 2018