The day began with a grenade. Chrystia Freeland published her resignation letter on social media, pulled the pin, and let it explode in Trudeau’s lap. Just hours before she was supposed to deliver the fiscal update, she very publicly disagreed with his “political gimmicks” and the fact that it became clear that he was looking out more for his political survival than the good of the country, and said that he told her he wasn’t going to keep her in the portfolio but offered her another one, which she decided to decline.
See my letter to the Prime Minister below // Veuillez trouver ma lettre au Premier ministre ci-dessous pic.twitter.com/NMMMcXUh7A
— Chrystia Freeland (@cafreeland) December 16, 2024
It’s hard to fathom just how absolutely boneheaded Trudeau’s move was, to have her accept a demotion but still read a political document whose direction she had concerns with. And as for the portfolio he was going to give her, it was apparently a “Canada/US relations” portfolio with no department attached, meaning no levers of power to actually do anything in the role—it would be strictly ceremonial, and she was perfectly within her rights to reject that as a slap in the face after everything she has done for Trudeau, and been loyal this whole time.
Minister without Portfolio & no officials / no levers is not a real jobYou are being asked to bake the cookies for the team retreat.
— Jennifer Robson (@jrobson.bsky.social) 2024-12-16T17:36:13.151Z
Big #cdnpoli vibes today.
— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2024-12-17T01:16:13.508Z
Her departure, and the way she did it, sent the government scrambling. There was supposed to be a lock-up for journalists for the Fiscal Update, but it ended up being postponed while the Cabinet figured out what the hell to do, and if someone was going to read the document in the Commons. The rumours were that the back-up finance minister (according to the Order of Precedence), François-Philippe Champagne refused, as did Anita Anand, but I’m not sure what to think of those. In the end, there was no speech, merely a document tabled by the House Leader (who had just spent 45 minutes eating shit on Trudeau’s behalf in QP), and Dominic LeBlanc was shuttled over to Rideau Hall for an emergency swearing-in to add finance to his already too-long list of portfolios. From there, Trudeau went to an emergency caucus meeting as several of his MPs were renewing vocal calls for him to step down. In the end, he didn’t, but apparently the question remains open and he plans to “reflect” over the holidays. Oh, and all that talk about Mark Carney? Yeah, it’s not happening (because it never made any gods damned sense), so maybe stop talking about him already.
The Liberals caught on and ended up putting a barrier to block the cameras
BOOOOOOOO!!!!! #cdnpoli https://t.co/w3OhH6uByI pic.twitter.com/uPse1MMKr1
— Mackenzie Gray (@Gray_Mackenzie) December 16, 2024
I have to wonder how Poilievre/Scheer/Hallan, et al., are going to spin the fact that Carney is not, in fact, taking over in finance. Do they claim credit, saying that they successfully warded him off? Do they pretend they never insisted this was a done deal? Which lie will be the lie they tell?
— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2024-12-17T04:14:25.455Z
And as if that wasn’t enough, Trudeau then headed to the annual holiday party of the Laurier Club—the party’s top donors—and somewhat shrugged off the day’s events, repeatedly saying that Canada is the best country in the world. We’re in for some rough waters ahead, and I don’t know how Trudeau can possibly stay on at this point.
https://t.co/R1tY3k3T60 pic.twitter.com/npRHsczFa2
— Dale Smith (@journo_dale) December 17, 2024
Throughout all of this, Jagmeet Singh took the opportunity to beclown himself, by demanding that Trudeau step down, but when asked if he would vote non-confidence, stated that “all options are on the table.” In other words, his party is not ready for an election, and will swallow themselves whole to prevent one while they try and look tough while they shit-talk the government at every opportunity. It’s farcical, but what do you expect from the current state of Canadian politics?
Pretty much sums up the day. https://t.co/ZNbY3rMVgr
— Dale Smith (@journo_dale) December 17, 2024
The fiscal update
After all of the drama, the update was released, albeit with no speech in the Chamber, which the Conservatives caterwauled mightily about. There weren’t many surprises, other than the fact that last year’s deficit was larger than expected because the government booked a bunch of legal settlements—primarily for the Indigenous communities—onto last year’s books (which is probably also why the Public Accounts have been delayed). These were one-time costs, so that means the deficit can continue to decline in the future, and economist Armine Yalnizyan noted that this was essentially a gift to the next government because it’s off their books, and they can make it look like they were more prudent managers when that’s not necessarily the case. Nevertheless, the government didn’t try to tease or hint that this was coming, which really makes you wonder about whoever is trying to decide on their communications strategy.
With all the goings on, there's probably no interest in why the 2023-24 deficit grew from $40B to $62B.
Just in case: ~75% due to contingent liabilities related to Indigenous rulings/awards; rest due to lower tax revenues.
Details: https://t.co/0VvSbWBIh9 #cdnecon #cdnpoli pic.twitter.com/UlWIpKDJQW
— Trevor Tombe (@trevortombe) December 16, 2024
The Logic has a good summary of the document, and it is confirmed that Terry Fox will be on the new $5 banknotes, while Laurier will be shuffled up to the $50 (and I believe Sir John A Macdonald will take over the $100). The NDP, meanwhile, are disappointed there are no new social programmes in said budget, because of course they are.
How great is this, Terry Fox will be on the 5 dollar bill.#Canadianlegend
— Rick Dhaliwal (@dhaliwalsports.bsky.social) 2024-12-17T00:33:46.874Z
The biggest ticket item in the FES is the extension of the Accelerated Investment Incentive. This is a huge deal. This allows companies to save taxes when they invest, and only when they invest. It will cost $17.9B in foregone revenue over the next 6 fiscal years.
— Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2024-12-16T21:44:13.179Z
Next, debt to GDP. We put on some debt during the pandemic. (Which was the right thing to do!) We have now knocked a few points off it. (Which is the right thing to do!). I'm hoping to see this trend continue in the FES. (It's the right thing to do!)We are nowhere near 1995 levels. This is fine.
— Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2024-12-16T19:00:55.197Z
Finally, here's the deficit to GDP. As a rough line, I'm pretty comfortable so long as the defict is under 2% of GDP. (We can run deficits of that size forever and still have Debt/GDP fall. Sustainable fiscal policy is about Debt/GDP.)
— Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2024-12-16T19:14:29.334Z
Ukraine Dispatch
Ukrainian and American intelligence both say that North Korean troops have been killed alongside Russians in fighting in the Kursk region. A Ukrainian drone has destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in the occupied parts of Donetsk region. Ukraine is claiming that they have a laser weapon that can down aerial weapons at a range of 2 km.
Even after years of war, when we thought the Russians could not get any more cynical, we see something even worse.
Russia not only sends the North Korean troops to storm Ukrainian positions, but also tries to conceal losses of these people.
They tried to hide the presence of… pic.twitter.com/KYyGF1rxP8
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) December 16, 2024
⚡️ Ukraine charges Russian general over use of banned chemical weapons.
Ukrainian prosecutors charged Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, the head of the Russian Armed Forces' radiation, chemical, and biological defense troops, in absentia with the use of banned chemical weapons…
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) December 16, 2024