Roundup: Performative fiscal demands

In spite of the fact that Bill Morneau strongly hinted on Thursday that there would be a “fall” fiscal update this week (and technically it is still autumn for another couple of weeks), the Conservatives dispatched Pierre Poilievre yesterday to performatively demand one – along with a bunch of the usual demands for tax cuts and “cutting red tape” (as though governments haven’t been trying to do just that for years). The tax cuts are coming – at least, the planned increase to the basic income exemption, targeted at lower-income brackets – which the government has stated repeatedly will be their first order of business, thought the Conservatives demand more tax breaks for “entrepreneurs,” while the NDP want that income exemption to phase out earlier so as to pay for dental care – ignoring, or course, that such a programme would rely on negotiations with the provinces, just like pharmacare. But hey, once you’re on a talking point, best to stick with it, right?

Meanwhile, the first confidence vote of the new Parliament will likely be tomorrow, as it’s the final Supply Day of the year, and when the Supplementary Estimates need to be passed, and we can imagine that it’ll be a long day of votes and Committee of the Whole to deal with them, before they head off to the Senate, where they might – might – get a bit more scrutiny than they’ll get in the Commons. But a vote on the Speech From the Throne is unlikely to take place until after the Commons comes back from their break in January, just looking at the math on the calendar.

Continue reading

Roundup: The source of the complaints

Carrying on with yesterday’s theme, Bill Morneau decided he would try and be too cute by half and release an open letter of his own, questioning Andrew Scheer’s promise to premiers to maintain the current health and social transfer system, and claimed that he was still advocating a cut. I’m not sure that it was quite right, but it was a novel attempt – and something Morneau rarely does, so there’s that. Scheer, meanwhile, keeps on his affordability message, claiming that he’s the only one worried about it while the Liberals keep raising taxes, etc.

The thing is, Scheer is wrong about that. He is fond of citing that Fraser Institute report that treats the cancellation of boutique tax credits as “raising taxes” – as it also ignores the tax-free Canada Child Benefit offered to most families as a replacement, and a more targeted one that will actually benefit low-income households at that – much like he’s fond of ignoring that the climate rebates will make most households better off in jurisdictions under the federal carbon pricing system. But beyond that, the data clearly shows that the federal taxes as a share of federal revenues also continues to decline under the Liberals. Scheer’s affordability narrative as it comes to taxes is bogus. Well, except for one particular group, who is not better off under the changes that the Liberals have made. And yet, as Kevin Milligan demonstrates with data and receipts below, it’s certainly not the average Canadians that Scheer claims to be fighting for. But then again, illiberal populists claiming to be looking out for average people while benefitting the wealthiest is getting to be a tired game by this point – and yet people still keep falling for it.

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1157388641385062401

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1157390752697085952

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1157394371806785536

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1157396798412976128

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1157439654120923136

Continue reading

Roundup: Cuts and capacity

Andrew Scheer made a defensive manoeuvre yesterday by sending letters to each of the premiers promising that he wouldn’t cut health or social transfers if he formed government – his way of heading off attacks from Justin Trudeau that are trying to paint Scheer with the same brush as Doug Ford, as Ford continues to make ill-considered cuts across Ontario without regard for logic or reason (while, oddly enough, his government’s spending continues to increase). There is an added bit of significance to this in that Ford has spent the past year trying to sell the message that Ontario’s books are such a basket case that the province is in the road to bankruptcy – which is a complete and total fabrication. While yes, Ontario does have a high debt-to-GDP ratio, we also have to remember that the previous government was borrowing money where interest rates are below the rate of inflation – essentially they are getting free money that they could use to invest in the province.

Enter Kevin Carmichael at the Financial Post, who wrote a must-read contemplation of the state of the federal books yesterday. It’s an adult conversation about the actual state of our finances – contrary to Scheer, our books are in great shape and the deficit is miniscule, and contrary to Trudeau and Bill Morneau, the deficits are coming in smaller than projected and growth is greater than projected and with no new increases in spending, we could be back in surplus before the 2023 election (thought that is always this government’s problem). And with that in mind, he poses the question – do we need to sock away surpluses in anticipation of a future recession even though we already have the capacity to deal with it, or do we spend our current capacity on something that would have lasting changes for our economy, like national childcare? It’s the kind of grown-up conversation that we should be having, but we’re not as parties snipe at one another over who is more “divisive.”

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1157119930434609153

Continue reading

Roundup: Enumerating promises

CTV had a two-part look at the government’s record yesterday, both in terms of what they accomplished that changed Canada, and what they did not accomplish as promised. The accomplished list is not quite as interesting – gender balance, more refugee resettlement, restoring the long-form census, legalising cannabis – I’m not sure their “reforms” to the Senate are as much of an accomplishment as people may think given the broader unintended consequences.

The other list, however, strikes me as requiring a bit more nuance than was really offered in some cases. For example, not balancing the budget was in part because there was an oil crash at the beginning of their mandate that affected their figures, and it wasn’t really balanced when the Conservatives lost power (particularly given that they booked a bunch of fictitious savings for things like the Phoenix pay system and Shared Services Canada, which the Liberals had to clean up). That said, they did increase spending once revenues increased, so it is a bit more complex than the piece offered. Electoral reform? It wasn’t one of their biggest campaign promises, but one of a myriad that was simply overblown in many instances, but that aside, it again doesn’t quite capture that the attempt to explore consequences resulted in a hot garbage report that was unworkable at best, and was based on a stupid promise that evidence showed was not feasible (leaving aside that the Liberals stupidly didn’t bother to promote their own preferred system until it was too late). The Indigenous file is still rocky? If anyone thinks that centuries of colonisation can be reversed in four years, well, that’s fantasyland, but it’s not as though there hasn’t been significant progress. The final, more nebulous point about scandals and “doing politics differently” is one of those unicorn promises that lets people’s imaginations run wild. For the most part, he did things differently than Stephen Harper did, but it wasn’t different enough or utopian enough for some people, and it qualifies as a failure, which I’m not sure is fair to anyone.

Speaking of stupid promises, the Ontario government is having to walk back on their promise to end “hallway medicine” in twelve months, and yeah, that’s not going to happen and it’s hey, it’s a complex and intractable problem that not even shovelling money at the problem is likely to solve. But it’s not like people believed anything Ford promised because it was only about their anger at Kathleen Wynne, right? But that’s what you get with populist blowhards – snake oil promises pulled out of their asses with no ability to implement them, but hey, so long as you keep them angry about the other guy/woman, then that’s all that matters, right? And nobody ever seems to learn.

Continue reading

QP: One last “PMQ”

It promised to be the last big show of the 42nd Parliament, with all of the leaders present for one last time. Andrew Scheer led off in French, worrying about the start date for the Trans Mountain expansion, studiously ignoring the Federal court of Appeal decision that revoked the permit. Justin Trudeau reminded him that Stephen Harper didn’t get any pipelines to new markets, while he ensured they got proper buy-in from Indigenous communities. Scheer switched to English to repeat his disingenuous lines, and Trudeau repeated that the only way to build energy projects was to work in partner with Indigenous people. Scheer got increasingly breathy as he accused the government of trying to phase out the energy sector, to which Trudeau replied that the Conservatives won’t take yes for an answer, and that they were succeeding in what the Alberta energy sector had asked for. Scheer shouted about all the things he would do to build pipelines and said the prime minister couldn’t get things done, and Trudeau calmly replied that the Conservatives still don’t understand why they failed the economy for ten years. Scheer rose one last time to assure Trudeau that a “real plan for the environment” would come at five o’clock, before he switched to some scattershot condemnation about the Liberals protecting corporate interests, and Trudeau listed off all the things that Scheer didn’t get about the environment. Jagmeet Singh was up next, and in French, he demanded the government spend on green projects instead of pipelines, and Trudeau took up a script to list off all of the measures they have taken to help the environment. Singh, in English, declared that the TMX would generate no profits — which is news to everyone — and he decried the government not protecting the environment. Trudeau picked up the English version of the script to list the measures that they have taken. Singh flailed around about measures for the environment, and Trudeau reiterated his previous response without a script, before he put it back to Singh that there were Indigenous communities supported the project. Singh switched to French to worry about the project some more, and Trudeau raised the fact that the pipeline was more responsible than moving oil by rail.

Continue reading

QP: Juvenile attributions

While Justin Trudeau had promised to be present for one of the final QPs of this parliament, he was absent as things got underway, while Andrew Scheer was also absent (though he too was also in town). Lisa Raitt led off, demanding a start date for the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, to which Patty Hajdu said that there was more to come shortly. Raitt gave a homily about all of the people she spoke to who didn’t believe the pipeline would happen before she repeated her demand, and Hajdu went on a tear about all the things the Conservatives didn’t get done before repeating that they would have more to say soon. Raitt railed that nobody believes the government, but it didn’t change Hajdu’s answer. Gérard Deltell took over in French to repeat the demand, letting Hajdu go on a paean about how her government respects workers. Deltell tried one last time, disingenuously ignoring the Federal Court of Appeal decision, and Hajdu repeated her previous response one last time. Jagmeet Singh was up next, and in French, he lamented that the TMX would not do anything for the environment or Indigenous rights, to which Catherine McKenna got up to lament that the Conservatives didn’t vote for the motion on the climate emergency. Singh switched English and flailed about fossil fuel subsidies before demanding action on climate instead of symbolism, to which McKenna listed actions the government has taken. Singh then lamented the national housing strategy as not being ambition enough, to which Goodale said that the without their government, housing funding would have been cut otherwise. Singh flailed a bit more to repeat the question in French, and Goodale reiterated his response.

Continue reading

Roundup: It’s TMX Day

Today is the day that the government will make their decision on the Trans Mountain Expansion, and it should not be a surprise to say that they are almost certainly going to approve it, having spent $4.5 billion on the existing pipeline to “de-risk” the project, and far more in political capital at the cost of some of their BC, Indigenous, and environmental base while trying to insist that this is necessary for the transition to a cleaner economy. Of course, if they could communicate their way out of a wet paper bag, it might help them to make that case, but they seem incapable of it. The real question is going to be what kinds of changes to the route will be made in order to accommodate Indigenous groups, or other conditions to be mandated as part of it.

There will be much talk about the “pipeline crunch” that the TMX will hope to address, which has to do with added oilsands production and not enough ways to get it to market, given ongoing delays on the American side of both Enbridge Line 3 and Keystone XL – projects which have been approved in Canada, and the Line 3 construction has been ongoing on the Canadian side. But as much as TMX will help, we also need to remember that the projected growth capacity is limited, which is another reason why Energy East doesn’t make economic sense. The concern that the sector needs all kinds of new pipelines isn’t actually borne out in the data (as Andrew Leach has pointed out repeatedly, including here).

On a related note, the government has rejected most of the Senate amendments to Bill C-48, on the tanker ban, but did agree to the five-year legislative review period, but as much as industry groups are demanding that this bill and Bill C-69 be killed, it’s not going to happen.

Continue reading

QP: In the shadow of the Raptors parade

With all three main party leaders at the Raptors parade in Toronto, Trudeau eventually addressing that crowd, it was up to Candice Bergen to lead off today, and she complained that the government just didn’t want to build any pipelines, even though they are due to approve the Trans Mountain expansion in just days. Amarjeet Sohi responded that they have ensured that pipelines are being built, and that they have concluded their consultations on TMX. Bergen demanded a date for when the TMX would begin construction, and Sohi dodged with a reminder that the Conservatives didn’t get any pipelines built to non-US markets. Bergen gave it another go, and Sohi reminded her that they had undertaken meaningful consultation. Gérard Deltell took over in French, lamenting that the Liberals wanted to kill the energy sector, to which Sohi found it regrettable that the Conservatives didn’t have any confidence in the sector. Deltell demanded a start date for TMX construction, and Sohi replied that Conservative actions didn’t demonstrate their own support of the project. Peter Julian was up next for the NDP, and he railed that there was no business case for TMX, and Sohi replied that the NDP didn’t understand the economy or the environment. Pierre-Luc Dusseault repeated the question in French, to which Sohi reminded him there is a diversity of opinion among First Nations along the route. Dusseault then demanded a wealth tax, per the NDP’s new policy platform, to which Bill Morneau reminded him of their Middle Class™ tax cuts and how the average family is now $2000 per year better off than under the previous government. Julian repeated the demand in English, and got much the same response.

Continue reading

QP: Condemning Kenney’s threats

Justin Trudeau was present for the first time in almost two weeks today, while Andrew Scheer was again absent. Lisa Raitt led off, worrying about the amendments to Bill C-69 from the Senate, and raising the letter from Jason Kenney and company threatening national unity if they don’t pass. Trudeau stated that they welcome the suggestions from the “independent” Senate, but said that a premier threatening national unity if he doesn’t get his own way needs to be condemned. Raitt said that Trudeau thought he was above the premiers, and Trudeau stated that he meets with premiers unlike Harper, but returned to his condemnation of the threats to national unity. Raitt worried that Trudeau was bringing on a constitutional crisis, and Trudeau reminded her that one of those amendments would make Indigenous consultations optional, which was not the way to move forward. Alain Rayes took over in French, and he demanded respect for premiers. Trudeau reiterated in French that he has worked with premiers, but Conservative premiers who threaten national unity needs to be condemned. Rayes claimed that the PM was attacking premiers at every opportunity, and Trudeau reiterated his response. Jagmeet Singh was up next, and he repeated his demand from yesterday to impose a price cap on cell phone companies, to which Trudeau picked up a script to list measures that the government has taken which means lower bills in regions where there is more competition. Singh repeated the demand in French, and Trudeau read the French version of his script in response. Singh then painted himself as brave enough to stand up to telecom companies, and repeated his demand, to which Trudeau extemporaneously assured him that the government was making investments to improve connectivity, including in rural areas. For his final question, Singh quoted a news story where a Liberal MP’s law firm may have been involved in a money laundering transaction, to which Trudeau read from a script about the task force they set up to deal with money laundering.

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1138511571515301888

Continue reading

QP: It’s simple arithmetic

While the PM was away in Quebec, I watched Andrew Scheer walk into West Block fifteen minutes before Question Period, but he decided not to bother showing up. That left Candice Bergen to lead off, and she railed that the carbon price tax rebates were less than intended and she decried the entire government’s environmental agenda. Amarjeet Sohi stood up and recited the happy talking points about the carbon price leaving eight out of ten households better off, as confirmed by the Parliamentary Budget Officer. Bergen scoffed at the response, and Sohi repeated his talking points. Bergen called the carbon price a “greedy tax plan,” and Sohi reiterated the same points yet again but noted that the Conservatives have no plan. Alain Rayes took over in French, and he railed about taxes and deficits, to which David Lametti recited the happy talking points about the strength of the economy and the million jobs created since 2015. Rayes and Lametti then went another round of the same. Jagmeet Singh was up next for the NDP, and in French, he demanded lower cellphone prices — which was the substance of his party’s Supply Day motion — to which Jean-Yves Duclos praised the government’s record at reducing poverty. Singh repeated his question in English, to which Patty Hajdu listed measures they have taken and directives they gave to the CRTC to ensure affordability. Singh listed a number of corporate sins of the Liberals before returning to his demand for cheaper cellphone bills. Diane Lebouthillier stood up to praise her department’s work at stopping tax evasion, getting a dig in at Singh because it was supposed to be the subject of the Supply Day motion and they changed it at the last minute. Singh repeated the question in French, and Hajdu repeated her previous response in French.

Continue reading