Roundup: No, east cost LNG won’t happen (redux)

Because we never seem to learn, and because certain interviewers in legacy media refuse to take a hint or to learn about how this works, we got yet another incident of a European leader being asked about Canadian LNG, this time the prime minister of Greece, who is in Canada for a couple of days. “Of course,” they’d be interested, if it was available “at competitive prices.” Which is the real trick, isn’t it? Because that’s not going to happen, particularly on the east coast where there is no ready access to a supply of natural gas to liquify, and where on the west coast, plenty of fully permitted projects are not moving ahead because nobody wants to sign commitments to buy the product if they build the project. That’s kind of a big deal.

So, here’s University of Alberta energy economist Andrew Leach with some necessary sarcasm for this latest round.

And because Alberta decided to enter the group chat…

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russia launched new missile barrages that have gone as far into western Ukraine as Lviv, and one missile appears to have entered Polish airspace. Ukraine has launched its own attack on occupied Crimea, and hit two Russian warships and a communications centre in the process. Meanwhile, the weekend was spent disavowing any connection to the ISIS attack on the theatre in Moscow, which Russian officials keep trying to draw.

https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1771864087267291183

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Roundup: When concerns become confessions

Yesterday, La Presse published an editorial cartoon that was all the way back to 1930s Germany in terms of its antisemitic tropes about Jews being vampires, and lo, there was controversy and much condemnation. It was pulled not long after, with a half-assed apology from the editor, but what I found particularly interesting was how many people lost their minds about what heritage minister Pascale St-Onge said, in particular that she would be “very prudent” on questions concerning the freedom of the press and refused to pass judgement, and called for compassionate conversations.”

I say this in particular because of all of these very same people losing their minds about the Online Harms legislation, and the frankly false concerns that this is going to be about the Liberals deciding what is and isn’t hate speech, and that they’ll prosecute and censor things they don’t like. And these are also the same people who insist that because the government is offering assistance to the struggling news sector (mostly by way of tax credits for salaries or digital subscriptions) that it means that the government must obviously be exerting control over what the news sector says or does. And then when a newspaper does something clearly antisemitic and the minister doesn’t offer threats, they condemn her for not doing all of the things they are saying the government is going to do and that we should be very, very afraid of them for.

Taking the cake in all of this was Conservative MP Michelle Rempel Garner, who taunted St-Onge over Twitter to “pull their government funding. I dare you.” Which pretty much proves the whole gods damned point, doesn’t it? If anything, it certainly makes all of these concerns about government powers—which are clearly structured in a way that they can’t be abused, particularly by codifying the Supreme Court of Canada’s Whatcott standard of what constitutes hate speech so that it’s not arbitrary—sound like projection or a future confession. But that would also require self-awareness on the part of all of these people losing their minds, which they clearly don’t have, and it’s all very telling.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russia has launched a missile attack on Kyiv, while a missile attack on Kharkiv has killed five. Russia says they will add two new armies and thirty formations by the end of the year to Ukraine as they push Ukrainian forces back while ammunition delivers are slowed. Ukraine did launch a drone attack against a bomber base deep inside Russian territory. Here’s a look at why Ukraine has been targeting Russia’s Belgorod regions. Here’s the story of a ballet studio inside of a bomb shelter in Kharkiv.

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Roundup: Audits being virtually ignored

If the Auditor General releases a report and nobody reports on it, does it make a sound? I suspect we’re not far away from finding out, as once again, AG reports were released yesterday, and got the absolute bare minimum of coverage—two wire stories from The Canadian Press (combining two reports in one story, the third report as a standalone), that were picked up across several legacy media outlets, including major chains, and one CBC story that covered all three reports in the same piece. That was it. And in Question Period, the NDP raised one of those reports in Jagmeet Singh’s lead question, but in the most generic terms possible, and that was it.

To recap the reports:

  1. There hasn’t been a measurable change in the situation of First Nations housing in four audit cycles, and the process of devolving this responsibility to individual First Nations is not proceeding very quickly. (The government points out that there has been an 1100 percent increase in spending on First Nations housing, and that they are consulting on projects going forward).
  2. Indigenous policing agreements are not being lived up to by the RCMP or Public Safety, whether it’s with under-investment, under-spending of allocated funds, or the RCMP not being able to staff positions as they’re supposed to.
  3. The National Trade Corridors programme got off to a good start in the design phase, but the department isn’t tracking implementation or results very effectively, and that’s its own particular breed of problem.

It’s incredibly hard to hold a government to account if you’re not paying attention to the very reports designed to do just that, even if this isn’t one of the “sexy” special reports like on ArriveCan. Auditor General lock-up days used to be a packed affair, and now only two English-language outlets released stories. That’s a very bad sign about the state of journalism, and of the attention span within politics for these kinds of things when they don’t fit into the slogan of the day.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Both Ukraine and Russia each claim to have repelled numerous air attacks overnight on Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Russians say that they have captured the village of Orlivka in the Donetsk region, near Avdiivka. A new head of the Navy was named in Russia following so much damage and loss of their Black Sea fleet. Ukraine is hoping to have enough ammunition by April as the Czech-brokered deal gets closer to being fulfilled..

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Roundup: Watering down a non-binding motion

Much of the sitting day was consumed with a great deal of nonsense, some of it procedural, as the NDP moved a Supply Day motion that, among other things, called for the immediate recognition of Palestinian statehood. This was supposed to have been debated on the previous Friday that the House sat, before they decided to suspend because of the death of Brian Mulroney, and it got picked up today.

From the start of the debate, Mélanie Joly corrected pointed out that you don’t change foreign policy with an opposition motion (and one could argue that matters of foreign policy should perhaps be confidence measures), but behind the scenes, Liberals spent the day trying to negotiate amendments to the motion in order to find some shared language that more of them could support, because this was going to divide the Liberal caucus one way or the other (and one suspects that the NDP was fully trying to create some mischief and sow some discord, if only to try and claim a self-righteous position in the matter of Gaza). And at the very last minute, they did come up with an amendment that softened the NDP’s motion a lot, including the removal of the call for an immediate declaration of statehood, but it all went sideways at that point, as the amendment was moved before French translation had been provided, and there were howls of protest from both sides as MPs felt blindsided by them. Andrew Scheer got all huffy saying that the amendments were out of order because they essentially changed the fundamental nature of the motion, but the Deputy Speaker eventually decided that since the NDP, who moved the original motion, didn’t object, then the motion could be considered in order. There were then subsequent votes to adopt the motion, and when that passed, to vote on the amended motion as a whole, and it too passed.

In the aftermath, the NDP declared victory, and Jagmeet Singh crowed about what they “forced” the government to do. Erm, except it’s a non-binding motion and nobody is forced to do anything, and pretty much everything in the amended motion were things the government was doing already. Of course, the NDP watering down their motion in order to claim a hollow, moral victory is pretty much 100 percent in keeping with how they roll, particularly lately, while the Liberals dodged yet another bullet on this particular file where they cannot win no matter what they do.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian defences shot down 17 out of 22 Russian drones yesterday, but there was still damage to Kryvyi Rih from those that got through. Ukrainians continued to target Russian refineries, as drone warfare remains one of Ukraine’s best weapons against Russia. Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials are alarmed that Putin’s talk about creating a “buffer zone” inside of Ukraine means a likely escalation in the conflict.

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Roundup: Eby calls out Poilievre’s baloney factory

Because the clown show never ends, Pierre Poilievre sent a letter to BC Premier David Eby yesterday, calling on him to not increase the carbon price on April 1st in line with the federal expectation. This after he has been spending months claiming he’ll “axe the tax” in BC if he forms federal government, never mind that it predates the federal system and has frequently been higher than the federal price, and very few have balked at it. Along the way, Poilievre also claimed that BC was just “administering” the federal levy, which again, is not true.

Eby, for his, part, laughed at Poilievre, pointing out that he doesn’t live in Poilievre’s “campaign office and baloney factory,” that BC has long had the price and that if they did stop the increase, it would mean less money for people in the province (who get the rebate back mostly as tax credits and not cash transfers). But seriously, this has broad-based political support in the province, it was brought in by the then-BC Liberals (who are mostly conservatives, some of whom now sit in the federal Conservative caucus), and nobody has time for Poilievre’s performative nonsense.

More to the point, Poilievre likes to play fast and loose when it comes to jurisdiction—he keeps telling Justin Trudeau to butt out of areas of provincial jurisdiction and leave the premiers to run their own provinces (especially around things like odious anti-trans policies), and how he’s writing premiers and trying to get them to do things his way and stand against valid federal laws? How exactly does he think this is going to play if he ever forms government federally? But then again, he’s counting on the cognitive dissonance that he’s training people to accept for them to not notice his inconsistencies or his complete reversals, or when he swallows himself whole, and that remains a very big problem within the population.

Ukraine Dispatch:

A Russian missile struck a residential area in Odesa and at least twenty people have been killed and more than seventy wounded; President Volodymy Zelenskyy has promised a “fair response” against Russia for it. Ukrainian authorities are also evacuating communities in the northern Sumy region after extended periods of shelling. Ukrainian drones damaged another Russian refinery, this time in the Kaluga region. Russians claimed that they repelled another cross-border incursion by Russian rebels in Ukraine. A UN report has found evidence that Russia systematically tortures Ukrainian POWs.

https://x.com/ukraine_world/status/1768642103968485561

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Roundup: Making a provincial problem a federal one—child care edition

The CBC continues to go out of its way to provide cover for delinquent premiers who can’t live up to their promises, in an attempt to make provincial problems federal ones. Yesterday is was on the early learning and child care system—fewer than half of the promises spaces have been created, and they want to make this a federal problem. It’s not, however—the federal government did their part, and delivered the promised funding, and what is left is for the provinces to live up to the agreements that they signed, and put their own money into the system. Several provinces are not doing that, and yet demanding more federal funding, because of course they are, and because they know they will get away with it.

The federal government did not force or strong-arm provinces into this system. Why? Because every single premier who signed up knew that this was a) popular, and b) economically necessary. We have labour shortages in this country and one of the most fundamental things they can do is to increase the labour force participation of women by providing subsidised child care. Quebec learned this years ago, and also learned that this pays for itself once the tax revenue from those women in the work force rolls in. The federal government wanted to get the ball rolling and provided a certain level of funding, and attached particular strings and metrics to it so that there is uniformity around the country, and some fundamental standards, particularly around things like improving pay for workers, and standards of care, and the choice was made to subsidize not-for-profit spaces because they’re less likely to cut corners for the sake of juicing their profit margins. But there are provinces who haven’t been investing in the system like they agreed to, or those like Ontario who cut the provincial funding they were supposed to invest, and then complain that there aren’t enough spaces being created.

We need to stop giving the premiers a pass on this. This is their problem, because they signed on and now are refusing to live up to their obligations. But the media doesn’t like holding premiers to account for some unknowable reason, so you get this CBC piece that continually frames this as a federal problem where the solution must be more federal dollars. No, the solution is the provinces living up to their obligations, and they have just as many revenue tools as the federal government does—and this will make their money back. But they don’t like to raise their own revenues, and when they get federal funding, don’t like to spend it on the things they are supposed to spend it on. And like Ontario is doing here, they get federal funds, cut their own share, and then demand more federal funds or the programme will suffer. It would be great if legacy media could actually hold them to account for this rather than trying to once again make this a federal problem.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian drone and bomb attacks killed four people overnight in the Sumy and Donetsk regions. Ukrainian drones damaged more Russian oil refineries in a second day of attacks. Here is a look at the Russian rebel groups attacking from Ukraine. The artillery purchase arranged by the Czech government should start arriving in Ukraine by June.

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Roundup: No, East Coast LNG isn’t going to happen

With the news out of Ukraine becoming more pressing, we’re once again seeing some bad faith takes in Canada about how we should be displacing Russian gas with our LNG, which is never going to happen. Ever. And people should know this, but they keep clinging to this fantasy because it sells to a particular base, but lying is lying, whether it’s to yourself or to your voters.

As always:

Ukraine Dispatch:

A Russian drone attack hit an apartment building in Odesa over the weekend, and the final tally shows twelve people were killed, including a baby. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is calling on Western allies to summon the political will to get them the aid they need (speaking mostly to the Americans for that one). Veterans across Ukraine have been disavowing medals in support of a gay soldier whose medal was rescinded by the church.

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Roundup: The uncertain final direction of pharmacare

The political reality of the pharmacare legislation is sinking in with one party, but not another, and you can probably guess which. Both Justin Trudeau and Mark Holland have been fairly circumspect in talking about where the system is going, and how coverage of the two classes of drugs will wind up looking like and costing because that’s entirely up to negotiations with the provinces, and nobody wants to wake up to that fact. This programme has been oversold from the beginning, and the NDP keep doing this victory lap while sticking their fingers in their ears and shouting “LALALALALA!” whenever anyone mentions the provinces, because they don’t want to hear it, and don’t even get me started on legacy media ignoring the provinces in this either.

One of the key details as to the future of pharmacare is that the Canadian Drug Agency will be doing work on a list of essential medicines within a year of royal assent, which could be the basis of a national formulary, but this again needs to be negotiated with the provinces—yet another one of those things that the NDP keep loudly ignoring whenever it gets raise. If this is to be a cost-shared programme—and it needs to be because there is no way the federal government can pick up the whole tab on this—then provinces need a say in that formulary. The Agency can also help coordinate the bulk purchasing that is what makes national pharmacare economically viable, and is going to necessarily be the cudgel that gets the provinces on board—there is more purchasing power if the whole country does it in one fell swoop rather than each provinces or a group of them banding together, and we need to remember that this is not just over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, but those used by hospitals and in clinical settings, which is why the provinces should have a vested interest in making this happen, because they pay for those out of their healthcare budgets.

I would also point out that the federal government has been doing the actual work of making this happen for years, because they got the Agency up and running quietly over the course of several years, while the NDP were alternately screaming and preening about this framework legislation that remains a case of putting the cart before the horse. So while the NDP take turns patting themselves on the back for this bill, the Liberals have been pretty quiet about doing the actual hard work, which again, baffles me entirely because they have a good story to tell if they actually bothered to try.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russians appear to be massing a large force near the city of Chasiv Yar in the eastern part of the country, hoping to make a breakthrough in the Donetsk region, as they now have the advantage in ammunition and personnel. The Netherlands has signed a security agreement with Ukraine, and is promising more artillery funding.

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Roundup: Brian Mulroney passes away

News came down last evening that former prime minister Brian Mulroney had passed away after some health challenges.

The Star has a pretty good obituary here, as well as some of the reactions to his passing, and the CBC has a series of photos over the course of his life.

https://twitter.com/yfblanchet/status/1763346642294411713

Bloc MP Louis Plamondon, who was first elected as a PC MP in 1984 along with Mulroney, reflects on Mulroney.

In reaction, Susan Delacourt notes that it’s hard to imagine a Canada without the larger-than-life Mulroney given his lasting legacy, and also reflects on the political lessons that she learned in covering him during his time in office. Ian Brodie praises Mulroney for his strategic sense in global affairs at a time of great upheaval.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian forces are pushing hard against the front lines in the east and southeastern parts of Ukraine, which Ukraine has repelled, and they do keep shooting down Russian warplanes, downing another three on Thursday alone. Ukraine is using more domestically-manufactured military equipment, as they strive to move more toward self-sufficiency and away from faltering Western aid.

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Roundup: By-election holds in all ridings

There weren’t really any surprises in the by-election results last night, as both the Liberals and Conservatives held their respective seats. Both Liberals handily won their respective seats, getting over 50 percent of the votes in each riding, and they were a fairly close second in Oxford, but didn’t quite make it in the end with that seat. In Winnipeg South Centre, the fact that the Conservatives didn’t even crack 25 percent of the vote should be of concern to them, because this is the kind of riding they need to win if they’re going to form government, and they can’t. Again, in Oxford, the fact that the results were that close in a fairly safe Conservative riding should give them pause.

And then there’s Portage—Lisgar, and the big showdown with Maxime Bernier there, where the Conservatives wanted to “destroy” him. I’m not sure they succeeded, as the Conservatives got around 65 percent of the vote, and Bernier got around 17 percent, so I’m not sure it’s quite the “destruction” they had hoped for. It also came at a cost where they largely absorbed Bernier’s rhetoric in order to entice his votes to the Conservative party, but that is likely to have consequences, as they shift the Overton window ever further to the right, and far-right talking points become more mainstreamed.

Moving forward, expect each winner to visit their respective caucus meetings on Wednesday, and for Anna Gainey from Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount to make it into Cabinet in short order during the upcoming shuffle, because she’s one of the few people that Trudeau trusts, which is why the government has as many problems as it does.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russia launched another large air raid overnight, targeting mostly Kyiv but also other cities but no casualties have been reported. In part this is because Ukraine has been building a three-stage defence system using the technology provided by Western partners. Meanwhile, the counter-offensive slogs on, with Ukrainian officials promising that the biggest blow is yet to come.

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