Tag Archives: Border

Roundup: Strange Five Eyes anxieties

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Every now and again, a weird little subplot turns up in Canadian politics centred around anxiety about our place in the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance. Lately, this has been heightened because of the AUKUS agreement, which is mostly about Australia buying American nuclear submarines, and that’s the reason why Canada wasn’t invited to join. We as a country have not been having the necessary dialogue around replacing our submarine fleet (which we absolutely should be), so us joining AUKUS would be particularly ill-timed.

Nevertheless, this bit of anxiety crept up again over the weekend, whereby an American intelligence official needed to go on television in Canada to assure us that no, the leaks from national security personnel to media over allegations of foreign interference are not going to jeopardise our Five Eyes membership. But cripes, people—we have had far worse leaks in recent memory, be it Jeffrey Delisle, who was sending information to the Russians, or the allegations surrounding senior RMCP intelligence official Cameron Ortis (who is still awaiting trial). Are these leaks to the media damaging? Yes, of course, particularly because they seem very much to have a partisan focus to them. Is it going to get us kicked out of the Five Eyes? Hardly.

Ukraine Dispatch:

As Russian forces pound the town of Avdiivka, shifting away from Bakhmut, Ukrainian leadership is calling for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council after Russia said it would be transferring tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1639971295113670656

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Roundup: Evading a direct question with fiery rhetoric

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Yesterday’s press conference with the prime minister and US president was the first opportunity to ask Justin Trudeau about the allegations made against MP Han Dong, and whether he believed them. Trudeau said that he accepts that Dong left caucus to fight the allegations, prompted people to watch Dong’s speech in the House of Commons, and then went on a tear about how any foreign interference was unnecessary, and it was why the G7 meeting at Charlevoix set up the Rapid Response Mechanism to deal with it in elections. And it sounded like the kind of answer he should have been giving three weeks ago when he was simply flailing, until you stopped to realise that he didn’t actually answer the question, but sidestepped it with the rhetoric. So that’s a choice.

Meanwhile, here is an interesting deep dive thread into what the Globe and Mail published on Thursday night, and the subtle shade they were throwing at Global about the decision not to print allegations they could not confirm without seeing the transcript of the alleged call or listen to audio. I still think it’s interesting that this seems to confirm that the same source appears to be shopping leaks to both outlets.

Stephanie Carvin answers some questions about the kinds of warrants that could be in play as it appears that CSIS was monitoring the calls of the Chinese consulate.

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1639255538021339136

Former national security analyst Dennis Molinaro gives a good gut-check about the kinds of intelligence we’re dealing with, and why none of it can be taken as conclusive, particularly as much of it is time and context specific, which may be why it wasn’t acted upon at the time.

https://twitter.com/dennismolin11/status/1639402944708632576

And finally, while some are hoping that a public inquiry might stop the leaks, I wouldn’t be so sure. The leaks are intended to cause damage, but to the government in particular, and that’s partly why they are being shopped to the journalists that they are. That they are causing damage to the intelligence service and institutions seems to be considered collateral damage, particularly if the op-ed from last week is indicative of a narcissistic personality who thinks they know better.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian forces attacked stretches along the northern and southern fronts in the Donbas region, as their assault on Bakhmut has flagged. Ukrainian forces are using three Soviet-era helicopters to pummel Russian forces on the front lines from afar. Slovakia has delivered the first four of 13 MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine. The UN’s human rights monitors have seen cases of abuses and killing of prisoners of war on both sides of the conflict (though disproportionately more on the Russian side).

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Roundup: No actionable intelligence?

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The Globe and Mail advanced the allegations surrounding MP Han Dong last night, apparently having received the same intelligence that Global did, and asked the PMO about it two-and-a-half weeks ago. Their sources say that PMO asked for a transcript of the conversation Dong allegedly had with the Chinese consulate, and deemed there to not be enough actionable in there. It does raise further questions about the leakers, and if they are leaking to both Global and the Globe and Mail, or if their sources remain separate.

Nevertheless, both outlets’ reporting lacks crucial nuance or expert checking with former intelligence officials that can provide both context or a gut check. And the fact that a transcript was provided doesn’t entirely tell us if this conversation was in English or Mandarin, and if it was in translation that could lose context or proper nuance in the language, which are all important around how we are to evaluate the allegations. And irresponsible reporting is taking us into witch-hunt territory, which is going to get ugly really fast.

https://twitter.com/chercywong/status/1638869879351808000

Meanwhile, the House of Commons voted for a motion to launch a public inquiry immediately, but it’s non-binding, and the government is waiting on recommendations from David Johnston. It was noted that Dong voted for the motion, while Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith abstained, later explaining over Twitter that he supports an inquiry but wants to wait for Johnston’s recommendations.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces are gearing up for their spring counter-offensive as Russian forces are flagging in their assault on Bakhmut, but president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is warning European allies that unless they step up weapons shipments, the war could drag on for years. Zelenskyy visited the region around Kherson, and vowed to repair the damaged Russia had caused. Here are stories of Ukrainian fighters wounded in the fighting in Bakhmut, as they repelled Russian attacks. Seventeen children previously deported to Russia have been returned to Ukraine.

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Roundup: Forcing a confrontation for point-scoring alone

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The whole sorry affair over summoning Katie Telford to testify at committee is coming to a head today with the vote on the Conservatives’ Supply Day motion to bypass PROC and have her testify at the Ethics Committee (where they hold the chair). And in the meantime, the Liberals are deciding if they want to make this a confidence vote, while the NDP are deciding if they are going to go along with the Conservatives on this, or back the Liberals—particularly if this does become a confidence measure.

It’s all really stupid. While I have a longer piece on the underlying parliamentary implications around forcing staffers to testify at committee coming out later today, we can’t lose sight of why this is happening. The Conservatives knew the government would balk at forcing a staffer to testify, so they would use the reluctance to push the line that they are hiding something, and if they’re fighting this hard “it must be really bad.” Which is bad faith bullshit, but that’s the name of their game, and true to form, the Liberals walked right into it, because they flailed over the leaks in the media, and can’t communicate their way out of a wet paper bag. And the Conservatives get to jam the NDP in the process, and try to force a wedge between them and the government. None of this is about foreign interference or taking the issue seriously. This is entirely about the Conservatives smelling blood in the water and going on the attack so they can score as many points as possible, because nobody in this parliament is serious or a grown-up. This is all a gods damned game to them, and it’s destroying our Parliament in the process.

Do I think the Liberals will force a confidence vote? No, because as much as the principle of ministerial responsibility is of importance, they’re not going to risk bringing down the government over it—particularly to have an election over allegations of interference in elections without any chance to ensure there are proper safeguards before that election happens. Then again, miscalculations have happened in minority parliaments before, and sometimes games of chicken go wrong. But really, this is yet another instance of play stupid games, win stupid prizes. And this really is the stupidest game.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces are warning that the town of Avdiivka could become a “second Bakhmut,” as they have held out against assault for eight months while avoiding being encircled, but Russians are trying to cut off their supply lines. Meanwhile, Ukraine sort of claimed responsibility for destroying a shipment of cruise missiles travelling by train through occupied Crimea. Elsewhere, here is a look at the de-mining work that needs to take place in places freed from occupation before they can complete critical infrastructure repairs.

https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1637881139355328523

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Roundup: Commonwealth Day reminders

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Yesterday was Commonwealth Day, and also the ten-year anniversary of the Commonwealth Charter, which was supposed to be a project to spearhead the adoption of more common human rights legislation that would include better inclusion of LGBTQ+ rights in those Commonwealth countries where they are still an issue. In those ten years, that seems to have fallen off the radar, and I have barely heard any mention of that Charter at all, until when the anniversary was mentioned yesterday.

With anything related to the Commonwealth, we were guaranteed a bunch of bad media takes, and lo, for their inaugural episode, CTV News Channel’s new debate show had one of their topics as to whether Canada should stay in the Commonwealth or abandon the monarchy, which is a dumb false dichotomy because the vast majority of Commonwealth countries are not monarchies. Only fifteen member countries are Realms, meaning that we share Charles III as our monarch in a natural capacity (we each have separate Crowns), and newer members of the Commonwealth are not former British colonies, but have requested membership because they see value in the institution. Even if we did abandon the monarchy (which isn’t going to happen because it would mean rewriting our entire constitution and good luck trying to make that happen), we would still probably retain membership in the Commonwealth because of the relationships forged there, and it can be good forum for getting things done with countries.

Meanwhile, I’m going to re-up this interview I did with MP Alexandra Mendès, who is the chair of the Canadian Commonwealth Parliamentary Association, about the work these associations do and how Canada helps to train the legislatures and parliaments of smaller Commonwealth countries.

Ukraine Dispatch:

The battle near Bakhmut continues to rage, while the International Criminal Court is expected to seek the arrest of Russian officials responsible for the policy of forcibly deporting children from Ukraine, as well as their continued targeting of civilian infrastructure.

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QP: Conflating the “police stations” with the interference allegations

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While the prime minister was present for a second day in a row, it was a question as to whether the tone of yesterday would carry forward today. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, wondering about the two alleged Chinese “police-stations” in Quebec, raised the Chinese donation to the Trudeau Foundation ten years ago (at a point where Justin Trudeau was not involved in the Foundation), and demanded the date for when a foreign agent registry would be in place. Trudeau took up a script and said that the RCMP was looking into those alleged “police stations,” and that they would take every measure to protect Canadians from foreign intimidation. Poilievre again demanded a date for the registry. Trudeau said he woudln’t take any lessons from a former democratic reform minister whose only shining achievement was making it harder for Canadians to vote, before he started patting himself on the back for the measures they have taken thus far. Poilievre raised the allegations that Chinese agents had “earmarked” a large transfer of funds to be used in the election, and demanded to know if Trudeau would return any funds he or the party in any capacity received from the PRC. Trudeau read that it was a fact that there are threats and that even the US is facing these threats, and that any suggestion that any MP is not loyal is dangerous and undermines democracy. Poilievre reiterated that the question was whether they will commit to return any money that came from the PRC. Trudeau insisted that this was not a partisan issue, and read the points of what the special rapporteur would do. Poilievre said that since Trudeau won’t commit to returning money and accused the prime minster of delaying, possibly until the next election. Trudeau shot back that when Poilievre was minster for democratic reform, he did nothing about foreign interference and only made it harder for marginalised Canadians to vote, while his government took action.

Yves-François Blanchet raised the so-called Chinese “police stations,” and accused the government of doing nothing about foreign interference and that the disqualified themselves from being able to do anything. Trudeau said that there are separate issues, and that the RCMP were investigating those alleged stations. Blanchet said he needed reassurance that the rapporteur would be independent, and Trudeau praised the fact that NSICOP contains parliamentarians from all parties.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP and talked tough about their “forcing” grocery CEOs, before railing about the grocery code of conduct being negotiated. Trudeau read a script about the minster of innovation getting the Competition Bureau involved in the matter, and that they had other measures. Matthew Green took over in English with even more bluster, and Trudeau repeated his same script in English.

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Roundup: The tone of the interference debate gets worse

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Because we are in an era of bad faith and lowest-common-denominator shitposting, Pierre Poilievre called a press conference yesterday to assert that Justin Trudeau was working in China’s interests against Canada—no doubt catnip to the conspiracy theorists whom he has been trying to attract to his banner, who carry signs about “treason” and who carry nooses to rallies. Even one-time sensible moderate Michael Chong has gone on television to be “just asking questions” about Trudeau’s loyalty to Canada, which is frankly beyond the pale. (Poilievre also said some absolute nonsense about LNG in Canada and his steadfast belief that there would have been a market for it if not for red tape—never mind that proponents could find buyers and couldn’t make a business case to proceed with projects that were fully permitted).

Trudeau later responded that Poilievre’s was eroding faith in democracy with this kind of rhetoric, but that’s kind of the point with this brand of populists. They are trying to erode faith in institutions so that they can insert themselves as the solution to the problems of democracy, without needing to worry about things like minority rights. Not that Trudeau has helped, with his back-patting and platitudes, which doesn’t push back against this kind of threat. (Some good analysis here).

In the meantime, we wait for the announcement of the special rapporteur, but if the goal is to have opposition sign-off, that could be difficult. The NDP say they are cautiously optimistic, but the Bloc want someone who has pre-determined that there needs to be an inquiry, while the Conservatives are likely to engage in bad faith regardless of what happens, so the ability for there to be consensus on a name is not a hope I am holding out for. But seriously—everybody howling for a public inquiry doesn’t seem to realise that NSICOP is likely more independent, because a public inquiry would be appointed by Cabinet, with terms of reference set by Cabinet, and would report to Cabinet. The government is trying to create some distance from themselves with this rapporteur, but nobody wants to hear the actual process or procedure around the demands they’re making.

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1633129536358346755

Ukraine Dispatch:

Kyiv is disavowing a group that has been making raids over the border in Russia, while other small groups within Russia are also conducting sabotage operations in opposition to Putin. Ukrainian officials have identified the soldier in a video that was executed by Russians, in violation of the Geneva Conventions.

https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1633042812605280256

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QP: The repetitive demands for a public inquiry

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While the prime minister was in town, he was not in QP, nor was his deputy. Most of the other leaders were absent, Pierre Poilieve was present, and he led off in French, saying that China has been trying to influence Justin Trudeau for ten years, starting with the donation to the Trudeau Foundation (which Trudeau had already stepped away from when the donation was made), and then said that Trudeau did nothing about China trying to interfere in two elections to support the Liberal Party (which is not really what the allegation was) before he demanded an independent public inquiry. Dominic LeBlanc got up and disputed that the government did nothing, when in fact Poilievre did nothing about the concerns when he was the minister in charge of democratic institutions. Poilievre switched to English to say that they didn’t do anything because the Communist Dictatorship in China wasn’t trying to help the Conservatives (that’s not an excuse for inaction), before repeating his same allegations that he made in French. LeBlanc repeated that they take any foreign interference seriously, which is why they took unprecedented steps when they formed government, including creating NSICOP, and the panel of senior public servants to monitor elections. Poilievre delivered a smear about Morris Rosenberg before insisting that the Liberals benefitted from the interference (not really) and then tried to call out the NDP for not being tougher on the government. LeBlanc said it was good news that top-level officials did already testify at committee and that he would be at committee himself on Thursday to answer questions. Poilievre noted the upcoming announcement coming later from the prime minister before suggesting that Trudeau would appoint a Liberal insider to hold a secretive process and not get to the truth, and he tried again to call out the NDP before demanding a public inquiry. LeBlanc reminded the House that Poilievre was the minister of democratic reform and he was aware of foreign interference allegations and did nothing. Poilievre went on a rant about the Liberals not being forthcoming about Chinese donations pre-2015, before demanding that the NDP force the government to allow PMO officials and Liberal Party figures appear at committee about the allegations. LeBlanc retorted that even if the leader of the opposition keeps repeating a falsehood, it doesn’t make it real, before he once again listed the measures they have taken.

Alain Therrien took over for the Bloc, and he demanded that everyone stand up for the confidence in the democratic system, and took his own turn to demand an independent public inquiry. LeBlanc agreed that it should be a non-partisan issue, and reiterated the “strong” measures that the government had taken. Therrien listed those who demanded an inquiry, and demanded it once again. LeBlanc again reiterated that they took measures, and gave more praise for NSICOP and other monitoring agencies.

Peter Julian rose for the NDP, and he too took a turn to demand a public inquiry, and LeBlanc recited the “unprecedented steps” that the government took to combat this problem. Alexandre Boulerice took over in French to repeat the demand and he got the same answer one more time from LeBlanc.

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Roundup: Some unnamed inaccuracies

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Because this story didn’t have enough drama attached to it, prime minister Justin Trudeau said yesterday that the Globe and Mail’s story on alleged election interference from China included “inaccuracies” in the leaked documents—but then wouldn’t say what those inaccuracies are, leaving them to sully the field and cast doubt on his assurances and are again told to just trust him. Frank communication is a good thing! When will he learn this?

Meanwhile, the report from the panel of senior public servants that monitor for election interference hasn’t been completed and released yet, even though it’s been over a year since the election. Privy Council Office says it’ll be coming “in due course,” but the delay is raising more eyebrows, especially given the CSIS leaks and what has been reported on them.

While this is going on the National Post spoke to former Clerks of the Privy Council and members of the panel about the determination of what they say about these allegations of interference, and the answer was basically that it’s complicated—there is no bright line for when you disclose, and disclosing could raise even more issues and that public alarm could sway the vote, which is why they were trying to avoid. It’s an interesting read about what factors they are trying to balance, and good on the Post for actually reaching out, which other outlets have not done.

Ukraine Dispatch:

It’s the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a “special military operation” which was supposed to last three days, let them engineer regime change, and cross back over the border. Somehow things didn’t turn out that way. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy vowed that they will “defeat everyone.” Russians have stepped up their attacks in the hopes of depleting Ukrainian resources (but they seem to have no qualms about how many of their own are dying in the process). Here’s a look at how Canada successfully delivered grain sleeves to Ukrainian farmers to help protect their harvests until they could get to market rather than risk them going to waste. Back in Canada, this armoured vehicle manufacturer is hiring Ukrainians displaced in Canada to build the vehicles destined for the war.

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Roundup: Still not finding the right tone

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Justin Trudeau continues to struggle to find the right tone to respond to the allegations of Chinese interference in the previous couple of elections, and still hasn’t managed to find it. Yesterday he made the point that this is serious, and that’s why it shouldn’t be made a partisan issue of, and that doing so is doing the work of these autocratic countries for them because it weakens trust in democratic institutions…but he’s not exactly doing much to engender that trust either, because the response is once again some feel-good bromides that don’t worry, they didn’t actually affect the election outcome. Okay, but you’re asking people to take your word for it, and doing so with the same pabulum that they shovel in everyone’s direction for absolutely everything, so it’s hard to take these assurances seriously. It’s time to drop the feel-good talking points and be utterly frank, as much as can be allowed given the nature of the situation, and that’s what they’re not doing.

And because they’re not being frank, the Conservatives are shrieking “collusion,” and “you turned a blind eye because you benefitted” (as though a hung parliament is the real benefit here). But part of the problem is that the Liberals never think that they’re partisan, even when they are, and while Jennifer O’Connell may not have been wrong in saying that the Conservatives sure sound like they want to build this up as a “big lie”/illegitimate election campaign, it wasn’t the right tone to strike. At all. I did find it interesting that a former Conservative candidate did talk to the Star, and said that he didn’t think that this alleged interference did much with the Chinese-Canadian population because Conservatives themselves were doing their best to alienate that community.

I would also like to note that poll analyst Éric Grenier was on Power & Politics yesterday to provide a bit of a reality check to these ongoing allegations, and how the ridings that the Chinese diplomats allegedly targeted had no bearing on the election. For the Liberals, they didn’t get a majority because of Quebec, thanks to debate moderator Shachi Kurl playing into Yves-François Blanchet’s hands and phrasing her “tough question” to sound like Quebeckers are racists, and it gave Blanchet the ammunition he was looking for. For the Conservatives, the GTA remains elusive to them, and that’s why they couldn’t win. None of the alleged Chinese interference did anything to change that, and the Globe and Mail should have included this kind of analysis in their original story, but they didn’t, because they wanted this to be as sensational as possible. This continued narrative that the Chinese government attempted to engineer a minority parliament remains frustratingly moronic because you can’t do that. It’s as dumb as when the Globe endorsed the Conservatives but not Stephen Harper in 2015. It doesn’t work like that, but hey, why should the so-called newspaper of record understand how our gods damned political system works?

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 365:

Russian shelling of Kherson in the southern part of the country has killed two civilians, with two civilians injured by missile strikes in Kharkiv. Meanwhile, the CBC talks to front-line Ukrainian soldiers about the training they got from Canadians, and the praise is coming particularly for battlefield medicine, as well as leadership for junior officers learning to take the initiative (unlike the old Soviet system).

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1628484262994362370

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