QP: Revisionist history about CEBA

Neither the prime minister nor his deputy were present, and neither were most of the other leaders. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he raised the Auditor General’s report, and the $3.5 billion that was given to businesses that didn’t qualify for the CEBA loan programme, and the fact that the government subcontracted out its administration, claiming this was a loss of control and corruption. Rechie Valdez, in English, retorted that during COVID, Poilievre said that they don’t believe in these kinds of supports, while the government stood up for small businesses. Poilievre said that this report shows that he was right all along, and Arif Virani, in French, listed the help they have given businesses, including the carbon levy rebates (finally) being returned to them and the GST “holiday” (which most businesses are not really thrilled about). Poilievre switched to English to repeat his first question, and Valdez cited Conservative MPs who wrote her office to advocate for the loan programme. Poilievre said his members champion constituents who are eligible for the programme, not those who weren’t, and pivoted to another report on food insecurity, and misleadingly blamed the carbon levy. Jenna Sudds praised the work of food banks and cited from the report that praised government efforts for seniors. Poilievre cited the faux talking point about food price increases in Canada versus the U.S., and demanded once again to kill the carbon levy, and Karina Gould cited the ways he has voted against Canadians, that they gave him an opposition day to make his case and he turned it down, which was a sign of his own weak leaders.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and raised the Auditor General’s report that they are not tracking the data for support for seniors, and used this to demand more aid for them. Steven MacKinnon retorted that the Bloc have voted against seniors at every opportunity. Therrien again demanded more aid for seniors, and MacKinnon again listed programmes that the Bloc voted against, calling it “shocking.”

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP, and in French, worried about the Trump tariffs and accused Trudeau of coming home empty-handed. Dominic LeBlanc agreed the tariffs would be destructive, which his why they spoke to their American counterparts about the integration of the economy. Blake Desjarlais repeated the same in English, and LeBlanc responded much the same way.

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Roundup: The GDP data and the “collapsing” economy

Yesterday was the day that Statistics Canada released the quarterly GDP figures, and they were middling. The economy is sluggish, but 1.0% annualized growth in the quarter is growth, and it bears repeating that we have avoided a recession after the inflationary spike, so this is the “soft landing” that the Bank of Canada was aiming for. And because growth is sluggish, there is plenty of talk that the Bank will likely make another 50 basis point cut in December rather than 25.

The Conservatives rushed to make hay of these numbers, particularly the fact that per capita GDP fell by 0.4% over the quarter, which was the sixth quarterly decline. (Yes, there was revised data that pushed up growth and made the quarterly decline less pronounced for the past two years). And why has there been a decline in per capita GDP? Because at the end of the lockdowns, we ramped up immigration to combat labour shortages, and all of those new workers pushed up our growth enough to avoid a recession, and because the denominator has been increased faster than the numerator, it’s a pretty solid indication that the growth could very well be much stronger once we get it back on track. To that end, the Conservatives’ press release compared our non-annualised figures to the American annualised numbers to make ours look worse (they later issued a correction), and put out misleading tweets that blame Trudeau and not the 2014 collapse in oil prices for the so-called “economic vandalism” that they believe that simple line graphs show.

https://twitter.com/maxfawcett/status/1862538994221031782

And then there was the absolute mendacity in Question Period. Michael Chong said that the estimated effect of Trump tariffs was less than what Trudeau has done (which is both false and stupid), and Corey Torchor, unbelievably, claimed that the StatsCan data showed that the economy was “collapsing,” and I wish I was making that up. In no way did any of that data indicate that there was anything resembling “collapse.” Sluggish, yes. Collapsing? How? Either the Conservatives are just outright lying with statistics, or they have no clue how to read GDP data (or maybe both). And the funny thing is that all of this concern about declining per capita GDP is a pretty de facto way of saying that they are cheering for an actual recession, which we would have had if we hadn’t juiced immigration the way we did. I wish this wasn’t so stupid, and I wish we had more journalists calling this out, but we don’t because “I was told there would be no math.”

This is incredibly mendacious framing.GDP per capita largely declined because of the influx of immigration, which staved off an actual recession. Saying that Trump tariffs would do less damage than the current government is both stupid and wrong.

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2024-11-29T21:15:09.167Z

Tochor claims that StatsCan reported that our economy is “collapsing.”Bullshit. Complete and utter bullshit. He doesn’t know how to read GDP data and is going to just lie. #QP

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2024-11-29T16:37:05.538Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drone attacks hit residential buildings in Kyiv and Odesa, injuring eight. Ukrainian forces are facing a desertion crisis because of overstretched forces, psychological scarring, and the management of the war. Ukraine’s army chief is pledging more troops on the eastern front after visiting there. Here is a look at Ukrainians dismantling a thermal power plant before the Russians can advance on it.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1862448598702596345

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Roundup: GST “holiday” bill passes

The federal government got their wish, with the cooperation of the NDP, to get their GST “holiday” bill through the House of Commons thanks to a programming motion that paused the ongoing privilege filibuster for the sitting day. In spite of the Bloc and Conservatives slow-walking it with dilatory amendments, it did pass late at night, with the terms of the motion being that once it passed second reading vote, it would automatically be deemed to have been referred to committee of the whole and passed, and then passed at third reading. (The Senate won’t see it until Tuesday at the earliest). It’s the first opportunity the Commons has had to do real work in more than six weeks, for what it’s worth. The Liberals and NDP, however, think they’ve found a big gotcha, that by forcing the Conservatives to vote against this legitimately terrible policy will be the key to reversing their fortunes in the polls, and their attempts remain cringe-worthy.

Pierre Poilievre took to the microphones to denounce it as “inflationary,” which is actually nonsense because we’re no longer in an overheated economy. Nevertheless, he relies on the simplistic notion that any government spending or deficits are inflationary (and claims that Chrystia Freeland herself this, which isn’t really what she said—not that the truth has ever mattered to Poilievre). Then again, his entire understanding of economics comes from crypto bros on YouTube, so probably best not to take him seriously. It’s still a terrible policy, however, so their opposition to it somewhat accidentally puts them on the right side of the issue, even if the reasons are entirely false and misleading (but broken clocks being right twice a day, and all of that).

As for the implementation of this terrible policy, it just looks even worse as the details emerge. What counts and what doesn’t for the rebate are all over the map, and it’s so chaotic that businesses are, quite rightly, frustrated at just how much work it’s going to be to implement for those two months. None of this should have happened, and the Liberals should have come up with a better measure than this (and rubbed the NDP’s faces in their own ill-conceived GST cut plan), but here we are, and it just keeps getting worse by the day. Well done, guys. Slow clap.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia fired another nearly 200 missiles and drones, targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure to leave more than a million people without power. Fragments from downed drones hit two buildings in Kyiv, injuring one person.

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QP: Undignified exchanges on the GST “holiday”

Neither the PM nor his deputy were present today, nor were most of the other leaders. Pierre Poilievre was present, and led off in French, and he declared Justin Trudeau to be “weak,” blamed him for Roxham Road, the rise in foreign students and the claim that 500,000 people were “lost,” and demanded to know what he would do to secure the border. Jean-Yves Duclos noted that the relationship with the U.S. is the most important, and praised the changes to the Safe Third Country Agreement. Poilievre accused the government of losing control of the border and that premiers were sending more provincial police to the borders. Duclos took the opportunity to raise Poilievre not having his security clearance. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his first question, with slightly more faux menace, and this time, Marc Miller noted that hundreds of thousands of people come to this country and then leave, who are called tourists and that anyone who doesn’t leave will face consequences, before saying that Poilievre and Tim Uppal have been telling people they won’t be deported because he’ll give them all visas. Poilievre stumblingly called this a “hallucination,” and Miller said he would tweet out the video, before saying that Poilievre needs to “grow a pair” and get his security clearance. Poilievre called this “erratic behaviour” and demanded an election, to which Karina Gould called him all talk and no walk.

Marc Miller just said that Poilievre needs to “grow a pair” and get his security clearance. Speaker Fergus asks him to withdraw those words, and Miller obliges. #QP

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2024-11-28T19:50:40.348Z

https://twitter.com/MarcMillerVM/status/1862269731329262017

 

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and claimed the government was finally listening to the Bloc and  adding resource to the border (Duclos: The prime minster had a good call with the premiers), and on a follow-up, Mélanie Joly noted that she spoke with François Legault this morning, as well as a number of influential American senators.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP to demand that the “rebate” cheques be expanded to more people. Soraya Martinez Ferrada thanked the NDP for their support on the GST holiday, unlike the “grinches” on the other side. Laurel Collins took over in English to also demand the rebate be expanded, and this time, Ferrada praised in French their (wholly inadequate) disability benefit and took the jab at the NDP for not supporting workers.

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QP: The “brains and backbone” to defend Canada

The prime minister was present and ready to take all questions, as is his usual wont on Wednesdays, and nearly all of the other leaders were also there. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and worried about the threat of tariffs from the US, but insisted that our economy, the borders, and the PM himself was weak, and demanded an election so that a “strong leader” could put Canada First™. Just Trudeau said it was ironic because they had given the Conservatives a chance to put Canadians first, but they kept voting against initiatives to help people, such as dental care and the school food programme. Poilievre repeated the mocking falsehood that Trudeau’s only plan was a Zoom call with premiers, Trudeau insisted that while the other guy was putting on a little show, he and his party were there for Canadians, and added that the Conservatives are only sowing chaos and discord. Poilievre switched to English, and once again listed things he considered the government to have “weakened,” and wanted an election so there was someone with the “brains and backbone” to defend the country, to peals of laugher from the Liberal benches. Trudeau said that while Poilievre is concerned only about himself and Trudeau, they were focused on Canadians. Poilievre said that was an example was a sign that Trudeau has lost control, and demanded an election. Trudeau mocked that Poilievre was up all night practicing that line in the mirror, and listed ways that the government was there for Canadians. Poilievre insisted that was a “mass hallucination” and that those programmes don’t exist outside of his head, and again demanded an election. Trudeau said this was an example of Poilievre trying to gaslight Canadians, and used dental care as an example of a programme that is working.

Poilievre says that only he has the “brains and backbone” to defend the country.The Liberal benches erupted in peals of laughter. #QP

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2024-11-27T19:33:11.389Z

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and said that nobody wants Trudeau’s vote-buying Christmas gift, to which Trudeau praised the GST holiday as helping those struggling. Blanchet said that those who need the cheques most won’t get it, and demanded a confidence vote. Trudeau said it was up to the opposition parties to vote to help people rather than engage in petty partisan games.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP to raise the story of a woman on disability who can’t work, but her spouse is a high-income earner and he will get the cheque and not her (which doesn’t seem like a great anecdote). Trudeau mocked that he remembered a time when the NDP stood up for workers, but now they are not supporting this rebate for workers, and said that they wanted the rebate to acknowledge the hard work of workers. Alistair MacGregor took over in English to also denounce that seniors were not getting the cheque, and Trudeau repeated his same mocking in English. 

No, that spike of inflation was not the worst we had ever seen. It was much higher and more persistent in the seventies and eighties. #QP

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2024-11-27T19:39:49.718Z

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Roundup: Falling over each other to defend Trump’s position

The first day of fallout from Trump’s tariff threats was full of more panicked flailing, and performative attempts at toughness. Danielle Smith, Scott Moe, and BC’s opposition leader John Rustad fell all over themselves to demand Trudeau address Trump’s border concerns (because boot-licking is how you really own the Libs, apparently). Pierre Poilievre took to the microphone to debut his latest slogan of demanding a Canada First™ plan, which basically involved all of the things that he’s already been calling for—most especially cutting taxes, killing the carbon levy and eliminating environmental regulations—plus more handwavey demands to increase defence spending (which he’s never committed to), and an even more authoritarian crackdown on drugs than he had previously been planning under the guise that Trump was somehow right about fentanyl coming over the border. He also full-on invented the claim that this announcement caught Trudeau’s government off-guard (never mind that they’ve been spending the past year re-engaging with American lawmakers at all levels for this very contingency). Best of all was that he insisted that the prime minister needs to put partisanship aside, and then launched into a screed of partisan invective, and said that putting partisanship aside means doing what he wants. If this was an attempt to show that he’s an adult in the face of trouble and that he has the ability to be a statesman, well, this was not it—just more of the same peevishness that he always displays.

Meanwhile, Justin Trudeau will be holding a virtual meeting with the premiers later today. One of the Bank of Canada’s deputy governors made the unsurprising observation that those tariffs would have economic repercussion on both sides of the border. The Logic has a look at the impact on Canadian business, plus a reality check on fentanyl seizures going into the US and irregular border crossings, and the legalities of Trump’s declaration.

https://twitter.com/tylermeredith/status/1861533934724563237

I probably shouldn’t be surprised at the number of people with a platform in this country who insisted that Trump must be right, and it must be our fault that he’s doing this, but seriously? Capitulate and boot-lick at the first opportunity? He doesn’t have a point. If anything, there is a bigger problem with American drugs, guns, and migrants coming into our borders, and we aren’t threatening massive tariffs until the Americans secure their border, because that would be insane, and yet, supposedly intelligent and successful people in this country suddenly think the reverse must be true. We live in the stupidest of times.

https://twitter.com/JosephPolitano/status/1861207325651943487

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QP: Trotting out a Canada First™ slogan

In the wake of the panic over the first Trump 2.0 pronouncement about Canada, the PM was present for QP, though his deputy was not. All of the other leaders were presented for a second day in a row, and Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and immediately demanded a “Canada First™” plan for the border and security, and claimed the government had no plan other than a Zoom call, and blamed Trudeau for the “chaos” at the borders. Justin Trudeau responded that he had a good call with Trump last night and that he underscored how well they have worked together for decades in order to create prosperity for all, and insisted that they would always defend Canadian jobs in an non-partisan way as a team. Poilievre said the call didn’t work because Trump threatened with tariffs a few minutes later—not true—and brought up softwood lumber and Buy America, and claimed Trudeau had not gotten any gains for Canada, and claimed Trudeau broke the immigration system. Trudeau said that there are international students who come to Canada, and after they complete their studies, they return home in the majority of cases, and they have a system when they don’t return, and praised their latest immigration changes. Poilievre switched to English to again demand a ”Canada First™” approach, and claiming that Trudeau didn’t have a plan other than a Zoom call, and listed a number of specious issues. Trudeau again noted that he did speak with Trump, and that they had a good conversation and that he was working with the premiers. Poilievre again claimed that the tariff announcement was after Trudeau’s call, and then lent credence to Trump’s nonsense about drugs and the border. Trudeau noted that Poilievre was making stuff up, that the call was after the announcement, and that it was time to work togetherness rather than engage in partisanship. Poilievre, flailing, tried to claim that the timing was somehow worse, and then claimed that Trudeau was putting a “tariff on jobs” and demanded tax cuts and an end to the carbon levy. Trudeau said that again Poilievre was making stuff up, and if he wanted to re-criminalise marijuana, he should just say so.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, noted the disruptions all around, and wanted the “rebate” cheques extended to seniors. Trudeau noted that everyone gets the tax cut, but talked around the issue with somewhat hollow platitudes. Blanchet wanted the threshold for the cheques pulled down so seniors could get the cheques, and Trudeau noted that people are struggling in different ways, and listed programmes to help like child care, dental care, and enriched OAS and GIS.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and demanded a plan to fight back, because bullies only respect strength. Trudeau said that rather than panicking, they are engaging in constructive dialogue with all sides, and that they will stand up for jobs and prosperity. Singh repeated his demand in French, and Trudeau reiterated that they are need to take action in a way that isn’t out of panic.

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QP: Attempting to be clever about a poor policy decision

The prime minister was in Toronto for the ill-considered GST “holiday” announcement along with his deputy, and most of the other leaders made themselves absent as well. Pierre Poilievre had just given a press conference but was not present, leaving it up to Frank Caputo to lead off instead, asking a ghoulish about sexual killers getting reduced security in prison, falsely blaming the former Bill C-83 (which was about solitary confinement reform). Dominic LeBlanc castigated the Conservatives for constantly repeating the names of heinous killers who are behind bars. Caputo then switched to denouncing the announced “affordability package” and demanded an election. Arif Virani declared that today was a great day for affordability and hoped the Conservatives wouldn’t be muzzled from voting for it. Caputo dismissed the measures and again demanded the carbon levy be cut instead. Virani gave a paean about how great the measures were for Xmas. Luc Berthold took over in French to say the best course was to cut the carbon levy, but the framing was odd because it doesn’t apply in Quebec, and François-Philippe Champagne praised the proposed measures. Berthold insisted the measures would raise inflation and demanded an election, and Champagne said that they don’t need an election, and the Conservatives need to support it.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and complained about the state of official languages and the decline of French. Ginette Petitpas Taylor, newly in the portfolio, said she looked forward to working with the Quebec government. Therrien quoted Quebec’s French Language Commissioner in saying that the federal government is “anglicising” Gatineau and Quebec, and Petitpas Taylor said she was offended by this as a New Brunswicker.

Alexandre Bourlerice rose for the NDP, and took credit for the government temporarily cutting the GST on certain items, and demanded this be made permanent. Champagne said that the NDP is just waking up and that the government has long understood the affordability needs and giving people a hand at Xmas. Don Davies made the same demand in English, and Anita Anand yelled that it was tax-free on essential goods for the holidays and how great this was, ending with a swipe at the Conservatives about “How can they claim to speak for Canadians when they can’t even speak for themselves?”

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QP: Boissonnault out vs caucus muzzling

Fresh from his trips to Peru and Brazil, the prime minister was present for QP today, ready to respond to any and all questions, though his deputy was elsewhere. All of the other leaders were present, and just before QP started, it was announced that Randy Boissonnault was stepping away from Cabinet to “clear his name” from the various allegations against him. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and led off with the various salacious allegations against Boissonnault. Justin Trudeau noted that Boissonnault has left Cabinet to focus on the allegations, but the Conservatives only want to cut. Poilievre raised Jody Wilson-Raybould and tried to compare her to Boissonnault, and Trudeau noted that for a leader who claims to want the truth is muzzling his own caucus. Poilievre switched to English, gave a quip about doubling hosing prices and gun crimes, and up until a minute ago, had a minister with a “double identity,” and Trudeau again repeated the points about Poilievre muzzling his MPs rather than letting them advocate for their communities. Poilievre again tried compare Wilson-Raybould to Boissonnault, and Trudeau repeated that Poilievre won’t let his caucus talk because he’s afraid of what they are going to say about him. Poilievre retorted that twenty Liberals want Trudeau gone, and demanded an election. Trudeau said that MPs on his side were free to share their opinions unlike the other side.

That threw a wrench in a bunch of planned #QP questions.

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2024-11-20T19:32:28.061Z

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, said this display proved why Quebec needs to be on its own, and then demanded that the government force the Senate to pass the Supply Management bill. Trudeau noted that his party was in favour of it, and demanded the prime minister personally meet with senators to get them to pass it, and Trudeau noted that he does meet with them often, but regardless, the government will protect the system.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, complained about the cost of living, and demanded the government support their economically illiterate GST cut plan. Trudeau said that if the NDP was so concerned about the cost of living, they would help the government break the Conservative obstruction in the Chamber. Singh repeated the demand in French, and Trudeau repeated his same response. 

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QP: Speaker Fergus walks into the trap set for him

The PM was wrapping up at the G20, while his deputy was also elsewhere, as were most of the other leaders. Andrew Scheer was there to lead off, and he listed a bunch of specious allegations around Randy Boissonnault, and Boissonnault responded that he had nothing to do with the person in question. Scheer tried again, listing more salacious allegations, and this time Jean-Yves Duclos responded with the usual lines about Pierre Poilievre not getting his security clearance. Scheer then cited a tweet from Jody Wilson-Raybould that took a swipe at Boissonnault and then got into a back-and-forth with Speaker Fergus about which words he used weren’t parliamentary. Karina Gould got up to to decry the disrespect the Conservatives have been showing the Chamber, and had to start over after a lengthy intervention by the Speaker, who was pretty much exasperated by this point. Fergus then threatened to start taking questions away, before Luc Berthold got up to give the same talking points about Boissonnault in French, and Gould again got up to say that Boissonnault has answered, and it was time to stop the partisan games. Berthold tried one more time, got warned about the use of a first name, and Gould again got up to moralise about how the Conservatives are making a joke of this place.

Fergus has pretty much lost the entire Chamber. This is utterly ridiculous. #QP

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2024-11-19T19:32:20.904Z

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and railed about their fraud perpetrated against the CRA and the hunt for the whistleblowers. Marie-Claude Bibeau insisted that this was false and that they took it seriously, and that the Privacy Commissioner was involved. Therrien went on a tear about CRA trying to protect their own backsides, and Bibeau replied that they have not hidden anything and that that they have taken action.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP, and demand the government adopt the NDP’s economically illiterate GST cut plan. François-Philippe Champagne agreed with the framing device that the Conservatives would only cut, while the government is investing in Canadians. Leila Dance made the same demand in English, and Jenna Sudds also agreed that the Conservatives will cut before praising the school food programme.

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