Tag Archives: Bank of Canada

QP: A bizarre false version of reality with a draconian coalition in place

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The prime minister was present today, which has become unusual for a Thursday, but since he wasn’t here yesterday it was good that we at least got a second appearance in the week. Not every leader was present today, and neither was the deputy PM, for what it’s worth. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and name-checked Catherine McKenna, Mark Carney, and Senator Percy Downe in pointing out people disappointed with Trudeau, and pounced on Downe’s call on Trudeau to resign, as if Downe’s opinion carries any weight at all. Justin Trudeau stood up and recited prepared lines that they are focused on helping Canadians while tackling climate change, and that the team is togetherness. Poilievre noted that he didn’t answer the question, and accused the government of not caring about Canadians who need heating. Trudeau listed things that the Conservatives would cut if they got into power. Poilievre switched to English to say that Trudeau hadn’t denounced the things Gudie Hutchings said about people voting Lineral, and demanded a yes of no answer to whether they would support his supply day motion whether his MPs would have a free vote. Trudeau rambled about phasing out heating oil and called on provinces to sign up to the heat pump programme. Poilievre noted he didn’t answer the question and wondered if the NDP would also get a free vote, which should have been out of bounds. Trudeau instead talked about how many people in Alberta, Saskatchewan and BC use heating oil and called on those provinces to partner about heat pumps. Poilievre asked if they would make his Supply Day motion a confidence vote, but Trudeau again rambled about heat pumps and said that Poilievre was making a mistake if he thought Canadians didn’t care about the environment. 

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and raised the issue of immigration levels, and consulting Quebec on them. Trudeau read that Quebec has their own targets and that the federal government provides resources to the province for integration. Blanchet again demanded proper consultations before firm targets were set, but Trudeau repeated his response.

Peter Julian rose for the NDP, and in French, he called on support for their call to take the GST off of home heating (which, again, is unworkable administratively and disproportionately benefits the wealthy). Trudeau responded that the thousand of people in BC who rely on heating oil should take advantage of the heat pump programme. Taylor Bachrach took over to relay a constituent’s problems with the heat pump rebate and wanted the same programme for Atlantic Canadians extended to the whole country. Trudeau said they wanted to, but provinces need to partner with them.

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Roundup: A focus on heat pumps

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There has been a lot of attention paid to the subject of heat pumps and just what they are over the past few days in light of the government’s “pause” on carbon prices on heating oil in a bid to give people more time to make the conversion, particularly in places like Atlantic Canada. So what are they and why is the government subsidising the transition, going so far as to make them free for low-income households (in provinces where they have an agreement with the provincial government)? The Canadian Press has an explainer on what they are for starters.

There is an issue that the detractors keep raising which is that in particularly cold weather they may be insufficient and a secondary heat source would be necessary. In many places, they use electric heat as that secondary source, particularly given the simultaneous push toward clean electricity generation in this country (some eighty percent already comes from non-emitting sources). We should take heed that Nordic countries, which also have very cold winters, have been making the move to heat pumps for a while now, and the newer models can deal with far colder weather than earlier models, but that doesn’t mean that the transition doesn’t have complications.

https://twitter.com/robtpublic/status/1719579403427213557

You can bet Scott Moe and others will be concern trolling on this, and some of the criticisms do have merit, but it will become a real task to sort out just what is legitimate criticism, and what is being stated in bad faith (because look where it’s coming from). By the same token, the government shouldn’t oversimplify things here, or the scope of the challenge that this conversion may present itself to people who will need more assistance in navigating the other government retrofit programmes that can help them with that transition.

Ukraine Dispatch:

A Russian drone attack hit an oil refinery in the central Kremenchuk region, while Russia also dropped explosives on the Black Sea shipping channels that have been used to transport grain. Ukraine’s commander-in-chief says they are entering into a static and attritional phase of the war, and they need new capabilities including more air power if they want to break out of it. Since the start of the war, more than 260 civilians have died from stepping on landmines, which is more of the lasting damage that invasion like Russia’s leaves behind.

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Roundup: A primer on inflation calculation

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Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem testified at the Commons finance committee earlier in the week, and a whole lot of people, including a certain “Food Professor” charlatan and numerous Conservative MPs, demonstrated that they don’t understand math or inflation as they all misconstrued the numbers that Macklem gave. And they’re the same number he has given before—that the carbon price has had a 0.15% effect on inflation, and if you removed it, going from $65/tonne to 0, it would have a temporary effect of reducing inflation by 0.6%.

A whole bunch of people–said charlatan, those MPs—insisted that because 0.6% is 16 percent of the 3.8% of headline inflation, that it means that the carbon price is responsible for 16% of inflation, which is wrong and not how inflation is calculated. Removing it wouldn’t actually mean inflation would go from 3.8% to 3.2% because the carbon price is not driving it. Energy and food prices are doing a lot of the driving there (and food prices are being hugely affected by climate change), and even if it did move to 3.2%, the Bank isn’t going to start lowering interest rates until it reaches the two percent target. Essentially, you’d be killing the carbon price and undoing the work it’s doing to lower emissions on the basis of a bad lie that it has made life unaffordable.

Meanwhile, here’s economist Stephen Gordon breaking down how inflation is calculated, with the inevitable conclusion that the carbon price is just noise—it’s not driving inflation, and it’s better to focus on the things that are.

A threat to democracy

A bunch of people got the vapours yesterday when Mark Miller called Pierre Poilievre a threat to democracy. Apparently these same people have convenient amnesia, or wishful thinking that he’s only kidding in what he’s doing and saying, because nobody learned a gods damned lesson from the Trump years.

Ukraine Dispatch:

While rallying Ukrainian troops, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy counselled patience and not to expect instant success (the latter comment directed primarily toward Western allies). A UN report says that 40 percent of Ukrainians need humanitarian support as a result of the conditions brought about by Russia’s invasion.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1719348496640200777

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Roundup: Scott Moe challenges Trudeau to a (metaphorical) duel

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Because the fallout over the decision to pause the carbon price on heating oil gets dumber by the day, Saskatchewan premier Scott Moe has decided that if he doesn’t get other heating sources similarly treated that he’s going to order the province’s provincial Crown Corporation that delivers natural energy to stop collecting the federal carbon price, which would be illegal, and which would expose the CEO of said Crown corporation for some potentially serious liabilities including possibly jail time, so one has to suppose that’s not going down very well. Nevertheless, this was entirely predictable and Trudeau should have chosen another course of action with the heating oil transition, but he didn’t, and this bed he made is getting really, really uncomfortable for him to lay in.

Of course, this has ramped up a bunch of other stupidity from political leaders, like Jagmeet Singh reviving his party’s long-time call for GST to be removed from home-heating, never mind that it would be impossible to disentangle for those who have electric heat, and that this kind of policy disproportionately benefits the wealthy who have larger houses. BC premier David Eby also wants relief for heating bills, but the province has their own carbon price separate from the federal one, so complaining to Ottawa isn’t going to help.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian shells killed a 91-year-old woman in the southern Kherson region when it struck her apartment building, while two others were killed in shelling in the region when a shell struck a bus. Ukrainian forces say they are switching from defensive to offensive positions around Bakhmut. Russians claim that they shot down 36 Ukrainian drones in the eastern part of the country.

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QP: Trying to make “quadruple” happen

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While the prime minister was in town and due to make an announcement shortly after QP, neither he nor any other leader were present today. Melissa Lantsman led off, and laid out a network of supposedly shady dealings around the ArriveCan app development. Arif Virani said that they were aware of the allegations and there was an RCMP investigation underway, so they would not comment. Lantsman tried to equate this scandal with people using food banks, and Virani repeated his same response. Lantsman repeated the same assertion, and this time Sean Fraser stood up and pointed out that the Conservatives’ record doesn’t stand up to their rhetoric. Pierre Paul-Hus took over in French, and he gave Quebec-specific food bank figures to tie it to the ArriveCan app development. Virani got up to give the French version of his statement. Paul-Hus cited a survey about Quebeckers being worried about their mortgage renewals, which they blamed on government spending. Rodriguez stood up to say that Quebeckers are afraid of Conservatives because all they care about is cuts.

Alain Therrien led off for the Bloc, and wanted the government to cut immigration numbers because of housing supply issues. Fraser said that it is possible to welcome arrivals and build new housing at the same time, and that they signed a housing agreement with Quebec. Therrien repeated the same demand, and this time Marc Miller said that as a Quebecker, he recognises the need for higher immigration.

Heather McPherson rose for the NDP, and she demanded immediate action for homelessness in Edmonton. Fraser for back up to say that they have been working to build more homes and doubled support for homelessness. Bonita Zarrillo said that those solutions would not help this winter, and demanded immediate action (because they have a magic wand?) Fraser repeated his same points about the support they have been provided.

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Roundup: A “dull as hell” House

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Jean Chrétien gave an interview yesterday to mark the 30th anniversary of his election win to form government in 1993, and there’s one part in it that sticks out for me in particular, which was about his time in politics, pre-dating his becoming prime minister, which has to do with the use of television in the Chamber:

“When I became a member of Parliament, there was no TV… In the House of Commons, we had no television. In those days in the House of Commons, we didn’t have the right to read anything. We had to get up and speak. It was fun. Today, they all come with speeches prepared by kids in the office and it is dull as hell, rather than have a real debate like we had in those days.”

This is spot on. It wasn’t just the arrival of the cameras that changed things, it was the relaxation of the rules around prepared speeches. It used to be that you weren’t allowed them, with very limited exceptions—the address in reply to the Speech from the Throne, the budget, and if you needed some particular help with specific facts or figures or translation (because simultaneous interpretation was a later arrival into Parliament). When they relaxed the rule around prepared speeches, it meant MPs started reading speeches into the record; time limits started to mean that they didn’t just speak up to that twenty-minute mark, but they were expected to fill the time entirely, which again, makes for very bad prepared speeches. There’s no actual debate either—during “debate” on a bill, the period for “questions and comments” is usually reserved for recitations of established talking points, with no actual exchange. One question, one response is not actually debate. Without relying on prepared speeches, and actually being allowed to debate, it would have made for actual tension or frisson between them, and to force them to know their material.

The other thing with the arrival of television is how it changed the nature of Question Period. It became very much about trying to a) get on TV, and b) providing clips for the evening news, which is one reason why parties started to do things like asking the same question in English and in French, so that they could get clips for both news services. With the advent of social media, however, the incentives changed again, and it was about creating content for those social feeds, which could include bad behaviour to drive up engagement. This is where we’re at now. It’s not exciting, and like Chrétien says, it’s “dull has hell” because you’re just watching badly scripted performances meant entirely for the consumption of clips. Politics should not be about this.

Ukraine Dispatch:

A civilian was killed in the Kherson region early Wednesday after Russians bombed the area. Russians are ignoring their losses and pressing on at Avdiivka, Debris from downed Russian drones downed power lines near a nuclear plan in the western part of the country, knocking out power for hundreds of people. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that Ukraine will strike back if Russia attacks their power grid again this weekend. Here is a look at some Ukrainian sappers who have returned to the job of de-mining after they lost limbs doing the work.

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QP: The worst kind of reading of scripts

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The prime minister and all other leaders were present today, and if anything, it promised to be a sour note all around. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he cited a “devastating” report about food bank use, blaming carbon prices. Justin Trudeau took the opportunity to mark the passing for Senator Ian Shugart, the former Clerk of the Privy Council. Poilievre said that Shuguart was his deputy minister and was a great public servant. He then returned to French to quote from the same report on food bank use. Trudeau cited the assistance they have delivered to Canadians, such as the Canada Child Benefit, child care and dental care, while the Conservatives would only those supports. Poilievre switched to English to reiterate his first question about the carbon price. Trudeau praised his government’s record in reducing poverty and reiterated the threat that the Conservatives would only cut supports. Poilievre cited a Nova Scotia quoted in the report and again blamed the carbon price, and Trudeau noted that Poilievre was part of a government that raised the age of retirement, and that it was about time he finally defended the CPP. Poilievre again quoted from the report on housing pressures and demanded more homes. Trudeau said that Poilievre has put forward no plan on housing and he lacks credibility on the file, while the housing minster was currently in BC signing new agreements. 

Yves-François Blanchet led off for the Bloc, and wanted the prime minster to acknowledge that Quebec would be financially viable on their own. Trudeau dismissed this as trying to reopen old fights that have long been settled, and listed off investments the federal government has made in the province. Blanchet again tried to get Trudeau to “admit” the province’s fiscal viability, and Trudeau again talked around the issue about growing the economy in the province together. 

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and blamed food prices on greedy CEOs, and Trudeau listed more programmes they have rolled out to help Canadians. Singh repeated the question in French, to which Trudeau listed off those programmes en français. 

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Roundup: Bad behaviour on committees for clips

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The Commons Access to Information, Ethics and Privacy committee released their report on foreign interference yesterday, and much of it was marked by recommendations to do things like finally implement a foreign agent registry (which the government is working on and has been undertaking consultations), and to fix issues that were the subject of leaks from national security agencies. The Conservatives, however, were not on board with the recommendation for web giants like Google and Meta to be held accountable for the spread of disinformation on their platforms, much in the way that the European Union has been doing. The Conservatives claim they are concerned about free speech and journalistic independence, but I have my doubts about that, because cynically, I suspect it’s in their self-interest to be able to continue spreading their own disinformation over these platforms and they don’t want to be accountable for that. Predictably, the Conservatives also used their dissenting report to demand forensic audits of the Pierre Elliott Trudeau Foundation, even though there is no avenue for the government do really do this as it’s an independent non-profit corporation, and the initial endowment from the government is not at issue in all of the various conspiracy theories that the Conservative shave been pursing.

As for their concern about journalistic independence, they told on themselves some more as their fight to try and haul CBC management to answer questions on their coverage of Hamas and the use of the word “terrorist” took over the Heritage committee with a heated exchange, and Conservative MP Rachael Thomas vowing to make it “hell” for the chair if she didn’t get her own way. Peter Julian kept trying to tell her that the president of CBC, Catherine Tait, is already scheduled to appear next week on other matters, but Thomas kept up this dog and pony show so that she could get clips of her being “shut down” by the committee. But seriously, it is not up to Parliament to make demands of CBC’s coverage, and for the party to claim they respect journalistic independence while pursuing this vendetta just shows how much they are invested in their bullshit, and how willing they are to erode democratic norms (like the independence of the public broadcaster) in order to score a few points.

This use of committees as clip-gathering for social media was also on full display at Status of Women, as MP Michelle Ferreri staged another such stunt, by demanding a study on violence against women on transit as an “emergency,” while Liberal MP Anita Vandenbeld objected because the study she had been trying to launch for months now on the mental health of women refugees who faced sexual violence would be pushed back yet again. Ferreri claimed that she wasn’t doing this for clips—and then put out a shitpost attacking Vandenbeld. It’s shameful that committees are being used like this.

 

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian forces continue to pound Avdiivka in the east, while Ukrainians say their defensive line is holding. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that they will continue to put their own pressure on Russian-occupied Crimea, and that increasing strikes have force the Russians to pull out their fleet as they are no longer to safely operate it from there. Elsewhere, Ukraine’s justice minister says he’s willing to go after the country’s oligarchs for embezzlement, fraud, and money laundering.

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QP: Fergus’ first day

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Things got off to a very late start as a result of the Speaker election that saw Greg Fergus take the Chair, somewhat unexpectedly. After the procession returned from the Senate, where they attended the Governor General giving her acknowledgment of Fergus’ new role, things got underway as they normally would, albeit an hour late. When QP got started in earnest, Fergus implored MPs to treat him like a new car and not dent him on the first day. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, citing a payroll institute report on people struggling, and demanded the government refund taxes they have created (though that may have been a translation issue). Justin Trudeau patted himself on the back with the list of programmes the government has been rolling out. Poilievre wondered if Trudeau would reduce the cost of turkey in advance of Thanksgiving this weekend. Trudeau recited about their meeting with grocery CEOs and their “grocery rebate.” Poilievre switched to English to repeat his first question, demanding the government reverse its so-called inflationary deficit and taxes. Trudeau read a list of programmes they have undertaken. Poilievre insisted that Thanksgiving turkeys now cost $120 and demanded to know if they would come down. Trudeau repeated that his government met with grocery CEOs. Poilievre insisted that the government was misleading about that their promise on prices (they weren’t), and Trudeau again recited about what they are doing with grocery CEOs to try and stabilise prices.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and raised the notion that there are half a million non-permanent residents in Quebec and that this was too many and that their social services couldn’t handle it. Trudeau recited some bland assurances that immigration is good for Canada and they were doing what they could to get everyone employed as soon as possible. Therrien railed that Quebec controls permanent immigration but not temporary visitors and demanded the levels be lowered. Trudeau pointed out that Quebec industry is crying our for workers because there is a labour shortage, which is why they were working with the provincial government. 

Jenny Kwan rose for the NDP, and she condemned the government for empty promises on building houses, to which Trudeau read a script about a groundbreaking at a housing project in downtown Vancouver that includes housing for people with HIV. Alexandre Boulerice took over in French and demanded the government instruct the Bank of Canada not to raise interest rates further. Trudeau responded that they respect the independence of the Bank, and read a list of their housing programmes.

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Roundup: A foreign interference inquiry after all

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The announcement finally came down yesterday that the government will be launching a public inquiry into foreign interference, with terms of reference that include China, Russia, and any other state or non-state actors whom they see fit, and that this will be expected to have an interim report by the end of February next year, with a final report at the end of the year. Leading the inquiry will be Quebec Court of Appeal justice Marie-Josée Hogue, who has no national security experience, but says she is “honoured” to lead the exercise (though that is not what I would be feeling). The choice of judge and the terms of reference are apparently all unanimously agreed to by the government as well as the three main opposition parties, which is in part why it took so long, but there are still a few red flags, particularly around the timeline. It doesn’t seem either remotely possible or even plausible that the bulk of the work can be completed in five months (Hogue doesn’t start until the 18th), considering how much time it will take to stand up the inquiry’s infrastructure, and for her and her staff to be properly briefed on how to read top secret information and how to contextualise intelligence. This having been said, Dominic LeBlanc says the government will turn over any Cabinet documents she needs, and Justin Trudeau says he’ll willingly testify before said inquiry when asked to, so they’re certainly making a big show about cooperation.

As expected, the opposition parties fell all over themselves to take credit for this, and chided the government for why this took so long to get to this point, as though they weren’t a big part of the problem, most especially in trying to find someone to lead this process who was willing to do the job and subject themselves to the likelihood of daily character assassination in the process (because as much as they say they’re all in favour of this, the moment they think they can score points off of what is happening, they will have zero hesitation in being ruthless in doing so). Already Twitter was abuzz with her political donation history (Conservative), who appointed her to the bench (Peter MacKay), and her previous law firm (which has Liberal and China connections), so you can bet that there will be those who won’t hesitate to move into character assassination at a moment’s notice.

In related news, LeBlanc says he’ll be meeting with MP Han Dong in the near future to discuss his future and whether he’ll be able to re-join the party given the allegations against him, which David Johnston found to lack credibility in his report. It sounds like LeBlanc hasn’t had the time to deal with this with everything else going on over the summer, so we’ll see where that leads.

Programming note: It’s my birthday this weekend, so I’m going to make it a long-ish weekend on the blog. See you next week!

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russians attacked the Danube port of Izmail for the fourth time in five days, damaging more grain silos and critical infrastructure. Ukrainian forces are gearing up air defences in preparation for another winter of attacks on their energy systems and power grid. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has tasked his new defence minister with rebuilding trust after a series of corruption allegations in the defence forces, particularly around procurement. Ukraine is also calling for more international pressure on Russia to return the children they have taken from Ukraine over the course of the invasion.

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