Roundup: Responding to events isn’t a desperation move

If you’ve been paying attention to Question Period over the past several days, you may have noticed that the Liberals haven’t been asking endless questions about abortion, or rather, asking the government to comment on the Conservatives’ stance about abortion. Throughout this, you had a bunch of pundits, almost all of them located outside of Ottawa, going “The Liberals are desperate! They’re using the abortion move 18 months too early!” The problem with that particular analysis is that it ignores the events going on around them.

What the Liberals were really doing, if someone bad bothered to pay attention, was responding to things the Conservatives have been doing around them. It started with Pierre Poilievre’s speech where he promised to use the Notwithstanding Clause to “make” tough-on-crime policies and laws “constitutional” (never mind that invoking the Notwithstanding Clause is a flashing red light that what you’re doing isn’t constitutional, and you’re doing to do it anyway—at least for the next five years, anyway. The Liberals were not going to pass up an opportunity to ask Poilievre just what else he planned to use those powers for, which is a perfectly reasonable thing to ask.

From there, Arnold Viersen tabled his petition calling for abortion restrictions, and the March for Life happened on the same week, which the Liberals (and usually the NDP) always put on a big production in Question Period about how important a woman’s right to choose is. This all happened within a few days, so of course they were going to respond to it. And once those events happened, they moved onto other things (like lambasting Poilievre’s “housing” bill). Not everything is a desperation move. They talked about abortion back in December when the Conservatives swapped a bill so that Cathay Wagantall’s backdoor abortion-banning bill could be voted on before they rose for the winter break (so it wouldn’t act as a millstone around their necks, even though the entire caucus voted for it), and everyone wasn’t insisting this was some kind of desperation move then. The moral here is that sometimes you need to pay attention to what is going on around Question Period, because it’s not the only thing going on.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukraine shot down 13 out of 14 drones launched by Russia on Monday night, with most of the debris falling on the Rivne region. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was in Belgium to sign another security agreement.

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Roundup: Another failed attempt to oust the Speaker

Because everything is so stupid right now, the first day of the final stretch started with yet another call for Speaker Greg Fergus to resign for a “very partisan” invitation to an upcoming event in his riding, and of course, the Conservatives tied this to Poilievre’s ejection from the House of Commons two weeks ago because he challenged the Speaker’s authority in refusing to withdraw unparliamentary language when invited to, falsely insisting that he gave the prime minister a pass on similar language. Because playing the victim is part of their playbook, and they have to insist that the system is against them.

A short while later, the Liberal Party came forward to take the blame for this, and insisted that the wrong text had been put on the website that was “auto-populated” with “standard-language” (decrying Poilievre), and that this was being organised by the riding association, not Fergus’ office. A short while after that, the party’s national director issued a public apology to Fergus and take full responsibility.

This didn’t placate the Conservatives or the Bloc, while the NDP were satisfied with the explanation and apology, so they’re not going to vote out Fergus (while they busily pat themselves on the back for being the “adults in the room”). Nevertheless, I will note that as media outlets rushed to tabulate all of the controversies Fergus has allegedly been involved in the past six months, they conflated a bunch of the bullshit ones with them, such as the remarks he made in Washington DC about the time he’d spent as a young Liberal with a retiring Democrat, which is hard to actually qualify as a partisan speech. Nevertheless, it got included, unfairly, because legacy media outlets are incapable of exercising judgment and will simply include the bullshit allegations with the real ones (the video he recorded in his robes and office) as a form of both-sidesing. While Fergus hasn’t been a great Speaker (albeit, better than his predecessor was), the constant attacks for bullshit reasons are starting to look suspicious.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces shot down 28 of 29 drones overnight Monday, with the remaining drone hitting private residences in Kharkiv. Ukrainian forces are finally getting new artillery shells on the front lines in order to repel the Russian advance near Kharkiv. Ukrainian drones attacked more Russian oil refineries, and purportedly sank a Russian missile cruiser stationed near occupied Crimea.

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Roundup: Saskatchewan Speaker’s bombshells

Things took a dramatic turn in the Saskatchewan legislature as the Speaker, Randy Weekes, has had enough of his own party and government. On Wednesday night, he tweeted a photo of his party membership card being cut up, with the phrase “enough is enough.” And then on the last sitting day of the session, in advance of an election this autumn (so likely his last day on the job), he stood up and read out the harassing texts messages he received, instances where government staffers accosted him outside of the Chamber, and his concerns about the Government House Leader of bringing guns into the legislature, and how he wanted to carry a hand gun.

Some of this speaks to a pattern—Weekes pointed to his predecessors who were also subject to harassing text messages or directions from the Government House Leader, and some left the job as a result. Part of this pattern is also because, frankly, the government is long in the tooth, and has become arrogant and complacent, believing themselves to be on the cusp of becoming an Alberta-esque one-party state. A lot of Scott Moe’s actions belie such a belief, particularly as they have started targeting minorities (like trans youth) for political gain with no actual policy reason for doing so. It’s just in-group identification with the increasingly far-right voices in the so-called “conservative movement” (which is frankly, no longer really conservative), especially as it bubbles up from the US, but also takes inspiration from places like Eastern Europe (and there has been a lot of cross-pollination between the American right and places like Hungary in recent years). And that the Saskatchewan Party is willing to violate parliamentary norms like this is part of that same playbook.

Naturally, Scott Moe scoffed at Weekes’ speech, calling it sour grapes because Weekes lost his nomination battle a few months ago, but it also means that Weekes had nothing to lose, which in a way makes him dangerous to someone like Moe, because he can start dropping truth-bombs with no fear of reprisal (like not having his nomination papers signed). One hopes that this will wake a few people up as to the rot within the government, but we’ll see how it plays out over the coming months in advance of the election.

Programming Note: I am going to take the full long weekend off, because we’re heading into the final stretch in the House of Commons, and I need the break. See you Tuesday.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian artillery crews near the front lines say they are facing more Russian drone attacks than ever before. Ukrainian forces say that they have halted Russia’s advance in the town of Vovchansk, but Russia says they intend to keep pushing forward to Kharkiv. NATO’s top commander says he doesn’t believe Russia has enough troops to make a strategic breakthrough. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Kharkiv, to boost morale in the region.

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Roundup: Backtracking on capital gains claims

A number of prominent business lobby groups banded together to write a joint letter to the government slamming the changes to the capital gains inclusion rate, claiming it to be short-sighted, that it sows division, and that it will impact one in five Canadians over the next decade—with more apocalyptic language about how this will hamper economic growth. Because, remember, their ability to engage in tax arbitrage is claimed to be a public good, or something.

There was just one problem—their math was grossly wrong, and they needed to backtrack on their claims, and that really, it’s about 0.13 percent of Canadians who would pay higher taxes on their capital gains. Oopsie. Kind of takes the sting out of their apocalyptic doomsaying, and exposes them for trying to mislead people into thinking that they will be exposed.

Meanwhile, the NDP have been banging on about why the government didn’t introduce any kind of windfall tax or other wealth taxes in the budget, pointing to plans by Joe Biden to increase corporate taxes, apparently not understanding how the American political system works and how that’s unlikely to happen because of how their legislative process works. The bitter irony, of course, is that for a party that keeps aping the American Democrats in their talking points, they also have no understanding of American politics either.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukraine’s air force says they downed all ten of the drones Russia fired overnight, but didn’t say what happened to the two missiles launched. A Ukrainian drone damaged a Russian oil refinery a record 1500 km away from border. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed the head of the state guards after two of its members were found to be plotting his assassination. Zelenskyy also says that with more Western weapons arriving, they’ll be able to halt the Russian advance in the east. In those eastern towns, Ukrainian rescuers are evacuating the elderly and infirm as the Russians close in;

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QP: Going hard for March for Life day

Despite being in town, the prime minister was not in QP today, though his deputy was, fresh from an appearance at committee. All of the other leaders were also absent, leaving Andrew Scheer to lead off in English, reciting a couple of slogans before giving some ignorant talking points about government spending, inflation, and interest rates, which had as much credibility as a crypto bro video on YouTube. Chrystia Freeland said that as it was her first opportunity to speak in the House today, she wanted to raise a grave threat—Pierre Poilievre saying that he wants to tear up Charter Rights, and that today, the so-called “March for Life” on the Hill, Conservative MPs were outside attacking a women’s right to choose, and that this proves Conservatives would attack the rights of every woman in Canada. Scheer insisted that she was trying to deflect, and cited a Desjardins report about a national measure, and demanded she “cut up the government credit card.” Freeland said that the Conservatives were upset because people are starting to see them flirt with white supremacists and threatening to tear up the Charter. Scheer insisted that they would take no lessons, because the government was trying to control the internet, before raising Mark Carney’s testimony at a Senate committee yesterday, capped off by reciting slogans. Freeland went on a paean about the rights of women to control their own body, and invited the Conservatives to affirm this right. Gérard Deltell took over in a French, and raised that July 1st is “moving day” in Quebec, and demanded to know what the government is doing about rent (which is provincial jurisdiction). Freeland went on a Quebec-specific paean about women’s rights to bodily autonomy. Deltell insisted that all Quebec women and everyone else in the country was suffering from the government’s so-called “inflationary policies.” Freeland once again insisted that women have a right to control their own body, and that there were Conservatives outside at the anti-abortion rally.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc to again return to the non-issue of Francis Drouin’s outburst at committee and demanded he resign from his Francophonie role. Freeland raised the Bloc for standing up for women’s rights before noting their support for the French language. Therrien repeated his demand, and Freeland repeated her praise for their investments in French.

Alexandre Boulerice railed about grocery CEO profits, and accused the government of a sweet deal with then. Freeland praised their changes to competition law as an important step. Alistair MacGregor repeated the same in English, and Freeland this time praised their plan to make those at the top pay a little more with the capital changes, before repeating the point about competition reform.

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QP: Calling out Poilievre’s chief advisor

The prime minister and his deputy were both in Toronto and surroundings, while most of the other leaders were also absent. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and worried about the number of Mexicans claiming asylum with a low acceptance rate, and demanded the government do something about it. Marc Miller said that there were diplomatic discussions happening, and he wouldn’t pre-empt those with a statement in the House. Poilievre then pivoted to auto thefts, and blamed the federal government for the rise. Dominic LeBlanc said that while Poilievre likes to invent blame, they are working with provincial partners and there is a summit next week on the subject. Poilievre repeated the accusation in English, and LeBlanc repeated that they did strengthen bail conditions to close the “loophole” he was concerned about. Poilievre again insisted that this was all about “catch-and-release” bail, and this time, Arif Virani said that the Conservatives are voting against measures to combat organised crime. Poilievre then went on a misleading tear about the Bank of Canada, and Anita Anand gave a canned line about the lowest debt in the G7 and the programmes they rolled out to help Canadians.

Christine Normdin led for the Bloc, and she cited a CMHC report about housing in Quebec because the population is growing too fast, and blamed the government for letting in too many immigrants. Marc Miller found it curious that they say they didn’t want to blame immigrants but still were anyway. Normandin repeated her same question, and Miller said that they can’t treat asylum seekers like cattle and just ship them around at whim.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP, and he blamed the government for high grocery prices because he alleges they are too close to grocery giants. Sean Fraser listed measures the government has taken to increase competition in the marketplace. Don Davies asked about the Manulife deal with Loblaws, which is not federal jurisdiction. Mark Holland patted himself on the back for helping to achieve savings with prescriptions through things like bulk purchasing.

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Roundup: Caught out for trying to be too clever

There has been another ridiculous slap-and-hairpull fight happening between Liberals and Conservatives over Twitter over an article in the Guardian which cites a rights watchdog saying that there are no pro-choice Conservatives left. It’s not actually true, because there are, but the problem is that the Conservatives were trying to be too clever by half when it came to MP Cathay Wagantall’s latest anti-abortion bill. It was structured ostensibly to give legal weight to a foetus when a pregnant person was attacked or assaulted, and it was 100 percent a backdoor attempt to give a foetus rights, which was intended to start the process of enshrining those rights on the road to banning abortion. It was not very well hidden, and every anti-abortion group in the country was counting on this bill. A smart Conservative leader would have either nipped this in the bud entirely, knowing that it was a trap, or marginalised Wagantall and any of her supporters, to demonstrate that they are a very small minority in the party. But no—instead, Poilievre had every single member of his caucus vote for it under the rubric that it was about protecting pregnant people. And it is that vote that this Guardian article cites as the basis for saying there are no pro-choice Conservatives.

But of course, political hay has been made of this, and Liberals across the board are sharing the piece, because this works to their advantage and plays to their base, and Conservatives are howling that they’re sharing misinformation. Never mind that the Conservatives spread all manner of mendacious messages on the daily, most of it outright lies and disinformation, and they don’t even blink, but as soon as something comes along that catches the Conservatives out on something they through they were being clever about, well, suddenly that’s beyond the pale.

Everyone needs to grow up, but seriously, this is your own fault, Conservatives. You should have known this was going to happen, so acting all wounded when it did is really disingenuous.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Drones purporting to come from Ukraine struck a Russian warship and caused what could in fact be severe damage to fit. Ukrainian forces have working to retake more land around Bakhmut. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian security service says that Russia is planning a false-flag operation against an oil refinery in Belarus in order to blame it on Ukrainians in order to draw Belarus into the conflict.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1687503986008498188

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Roundup: Mendicino’s future in doubt

The political future of Marco Mendicino is in the balance as the revelation has circulated that his office was aware of the potential transfer of serial rapist and killer Paul Bernardo to a medium-security facility (designed to treat violent sex offenders) for months but didn’t inform him until it happened, made worse by the fact that the prime minister’s office was also informed, and they kicked it to Mendicino’s office to deal with. And by deal with, we’re not talking politically interfering with an arm’s length body, but at least doing something, whether it’s ordering a review or coming up with a communications plan to get ahead of it. But they didn’t.

There is a lot of talk about ministerial responsibility and accountability, and what that means in a situation like this. The assumption is always that every offence is a resigning offence, which is wrong, and Mendicino says that he’s taken “corrective action” in his office, but as the minister, the buck stops with him, and in this case, it’s a pattern of incompetence coming home to roost, and it’s not the first time, and he’s been a terrible communicator on a number of the files before him, to the point of framing things in a manner that could be construed as misleading, such as issue of “police advice” on the invocation of the Emergencies Act. Mendicino says he won’t resign, but it’s getting hard to see how “corrective action” in his office can be handled without a head rolling, or someone falling on their sword, and at this point, we are getting to the point where Mendicino should probably consider doing so in order to get ahead of things, and looking like he still has some principles left.

The other thing to consider is that he may be out of this job sooner than later, because the rumours of a Cabinet shuffle are pretty loud, and his name is at the top of the list as someone who isn’t performing well and needs to be out of their portfolio. (Also on that list are Omar Alghabra and Joyce Murray). We are at a point in the life of the government where they need a shake-up in order to try and throw off some of the fatigue that is weighing them down, and to get some new blood in some of their portfolios in order to get fresh perspectives. There’s also a major rotation of staff happening in a number of offices, which is also needed at this point. We’ll see if this situation accelerates Trudeau’s plans for when this shuffle is going to happen, which Mendicino could force by doing the honourable thing. (That said, it might mean that Bill Blair might be tasked with taking Public Safety back on, at least until a new minister can be appointed, and that wouldn’t be a good thing because he shouldn’t have that portfolio for very obvious reasons).

Ukraine Dispatch:

The Russian strikes against Odessa and Donetsk early Wednesday morning killed six and damaged dozens of homes. Ukraine’s counter-offensive is still testing Russian defences, largely in the south, as they have thus far only committed three of their twelve battalions to the operation so far.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1668981197693648898

https://twitter.com/defencehq/status/1668957867301302275

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1668878494762250241

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Roundup: You’re not going to get a royal recommendation

Another day, and another warning from the Speaker that a private member’s bill is going to need a royal recommendation before the final vote, and it won’t get it, so be prepared to waste everyone’s time on a doomed bill that won’t go anywhere. This is becoming increasingly routine in this parliament, where MPs keep advancing these bills that have no hope of passage up for debate, apparently because they want to be seen talking about the issue, and maybe shaming the government for not supporting it, as with this particular bill on enhancing OAS and GIS benefits for seniors between 65 and 74 (ignoring that they are enriched for seniors over 75 because many of them have exhausted their savings by that point).

But seriously—a private member’s bill cannot spend money. Only a government bill can do so, because they’re the government, and they need that expenditure approved by Parliament. This is fundamental to how parliamentary democracy works. These clear delineations in roles exists for a reason, and the role of MPs who are not in Cabinet is to hold Cabinet to account, and the primary way to do that is through the power of the public purse. You cannot hold them to account if you too are spending public money with abandon because you have at that point blurred the responsibilities and the lines of accountability. This shouldn’t be difficult for MPs to learn and grasp, but unfortunately, they have picked up a lot of bad habits and wrong-headed beliefs over the past number of years, and it’s becoming quite obvious that they either refuse to learn how the Chamber and the institution work, or they simply don’t care and would rather waste everyone’s time.

Ukraine Dispatch:

The Ukrainian commander in the ruins of Bakhmut says that Russian Wagner Group mercenaries have stepped up their attacks in recent days, while Russia is denying claims that Ukrainian forces have made advancements in Bakhmut over the past couple of days. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that the spring counter-offensive is being delayed because they need more western weapons. This while the UK has opted to send newer cruise missiles to Ukraine, who have the longest range of any of their arsenal to date. Zelenskyy also says he has approved a plan to reform criminal and law enforcement systems, which is a requirement for future EU membership.

https://twitter.com/defencehq/status/1656535955338063873

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QP: More childish passport drama

The prime minister was in town, but meeting the president of Moldova, while his deputy was at G7 meetings in Japan. Most of the other leaders were also present, for what it’s worth. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, decrying the “wokeist” ideology of the prime minster taking photos of Terry Fox and Vimy Ridge out of the passport in lieu of “colouring book” pages and a supposed picture of the prime minster swimming at Herrington Lake (which is not true). Sean Fraser said that people don’t learn history from passport photos, but actual books, and talking to veterans. Poilievre went again in English, voting to “bring home” the old images and what they represent if he forms government. Fraser took a swipe that the Conservatives don’t have a monopoly on heroes like Terry Fox. Poilievre then pretended that the PM was present and too afraid to answer, before decrying a “second carbon tax.” Steven Guilbeault noted that the premier of New Brunswick just adopted the federal system at the urging of one of the Conservative MPs. Poilievre repeated his antics again, and Guilbeault tried to quote from the Conservative platform before he was shouted down, and after the Speaker demanded silence, Guilbeault went on a tear about if Poilievre considers him “woke,” then he provided his own wrong definition. Poilievre turned this around with a stream of bullshit about what he thinks “woke” means, and doesn’t. Karina Gould stood up this time to decry the Conservatives opposing government help to people who need it.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc and yet again decried the “century initiative” and demanded the government not increase immigration levels. Fraser said that the initiative is not a government policy and they are bringing in needed workers while still protecting French. Alain Therrien started screaming about nobody wanting this kind of immigration, and Dominic LeBlanc spoke about seeing all kinds of signs in Quebec about people needing workers and not finding them.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and in French, lamented that the Liberals  were all talk about protecting abortion but not doing anything to increase access (which is provincial jurisdiction). Jenna Sudds stood up to recite that the usual lines about Conservatives attacking abortion rights. Singh repeated the question in English, and this time, Mélanie Joly stood up to give a more vociferous denunciation of Conservatives and insisting that this a government was doing more to protect abortion.

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