Roundup: Another month of reprieve—maybe

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Less than a week into the trade war, and the Americans have somewhat recanted? But only somewhat. Yesterday they decided to suspend the tariffs on New NAFTA “compliant” exports from Canada until April 2nd, but no one is quite sure what that means. Nevertheless, the Canadian government is still maintaining its first tranche of retaliatory tariffs, and will not remove them until the threat is gone, but they are holding back the second tranche of retaliatory actions until April 2nd, or until Trump abandons his tariff nonsense (which could be never).

We also got word about the call that Trudeau had will Trump earlier in the week, and how heated it got, particularly on the question of dairy imports to Canada, where Trump got profane. More telling was the fentanyl question, where Trudeau pointed out the low seizures (and remember that 43 pounds seized last year was not actually all coming across the border, but apprehended within a certain radius of said border), to which Trump is apparently using a secret metric regarding progress on stopping it—proving yet again that this isn’t actually about fentanyl, and that it remains a legal fiction for Trump to abuse his authority. Also, when asked about Mélanie Joly terming the current state of affairs a “psychodrama,” Trudeau responded that he calls it “Thursday.” So, there’s that. And Trump is now posting on his socials that Trudeau is trying to use the tariffs to stay in power, which is again just him pulling it out of his ass, and MAGA-types in this country are already saying “See! That’s what I’m afraid of!” *sighs, pinches bridge of nose*

Meanwhile, Doug Ford declared that he’s going to impose a 25 percent tariff on electricity exports to three American states as of Monday—but I’m not sure that he can actually do that, because trade and commerce powers are federal jurisdiction. Imposing tariffs is federal. Electricity exports are federally regulated by the Canadian Energy Regulator. But people are also insisting that Ontario’s Independent Electricity System Operator, which is a government-created entity, can apply a surcharge, which again raises questions about how this doesn’t run afoul of federal trade and commerce powers. And this is Ford we’re talking about, who always talks a big game and very rarely does he actually back it up with anything. I would remain incredibly skeptical of the whole thing.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched another mass drone attack on Odesa, damaging energy infrastructure. Russia claims to have captured another village in eastern Ukraine, Andriivka, but there is no confirmation. While Trump’s lackies are holding meetings with opposition politicians in Ukraine, opposition leader Petro Poroshenko says he’s opposed to a wartime election. Trump is also talking about revoking the temporary protected status for some 240,000 Ukrainians in the US, and could start deporting them.

Good reads:

  • Justin Trudeau announced an extension of child care funding until 2031, with the exception of Alberta and Saskatchewan, who are refusing to play ball.
  • Mark Holland has signed a pharmacare agreement with BC (which is fairly big given that John Horgan strongly opposed previous pharmacare attempts).
  • Bill Blair announced that the government is increasing the amount they are spending on a network of northern military hubs from $218 million to $2.67 billion.
  • A settlement has been reached by the federal government with survivors of the so-called “Indian hospitals,” which were rife with abuse and unfair treatment.
  • The federal government is putting an additional $10 million into a programme to help communities combat violent extremism and antisemitism.
  • The federal government quietly released their Africa Strategy, with no media blitz, and no additional funding.
  • The Canadian Centre for Cyber Security warns that China, Russia and Iran are likely to use AI-enabled manipulation in the coming election.
  • The US Defence Department insists that they don’t have a “kill switch” for F-35s, but they do contractually control all hardware and software upgrades.
  • The Federal Court has ruled that no, Trudeau did not exceed his authority in asking for a prorogation (but the government will likely appeal the justiciability finding).
  • The Conservatives skipped out on a parliamentary trip to Washington (because Jenni Byrne doesn’t want MPs fraternizing with anyone from another party).
  • After a staff and riding association revolt because of a “toxic and manipulative” environment, Conservative MP Jake Stewart has announced he won’t run again.
  • The RCMP have now launched their own investigation into corruption allegations around the AHS procurement of private surgical clinics.
  • Anne Applebaum (by video) talks about the optimism of Europe coming together in a renewed way in the wake of America pulling away from the trans-Atlantic alliance.

Odds and ends:

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One thought on “Roundup: Another month of reprieve—maybe”

  1. While many out there think Canada may be big enough to handle these tariffs and to handle the elephant in the room (the United States) I think we are almost but not quite there just yet, but the signs are positive that we are showing the world that we want to be regarded as much much more than just that country next door to the US.

    IMO Canada is akin to the family with a child, a child that has completed most of their required university courses and has learned quite a bit but has not just yet made that big step to leave the ‘nest’, the US ‘guardian’! But this adult ‘child’ (Canada) sees that they have a need to land that post university job and they need to secure that place to live and how they are going to make their way in the ever changing world.

    And so, this Canadian adult ‘child’ understanding they have potential and wanting to take the next big steps, are preparing to ‘leave home’ (e.g., cut the ties to their easy relationships with the US) , make new friends (e.g., EU agreements for their skills and what they may provide), secure an income stream (e.g., to bring in revenues to support their existence in the world), make some deals (e.g., identify and express their skills that show what they are able to provide as value to another), take their lumps and move on to do better (e.g., some ideas/deals work out and others fail and we become smarter about how to make sure we do not get caught again in a similar situation), we want to meet new friends, to expand our horizons. These are all the things that show growth and show how a country establishes themselves as a valuable contributing member of the world community.

    The first steps are being taken now. The adult ‘child’ (Canada) is getting their own internal house in order with the steps on agreements between the 10 provinces and 3 territories on who gets what and how we will operate as a cohesive unit. This working out of these inter-provincial trade issues is a loose thread, an ‘Achilles heel’ exposure that needs to be well understood and taken care of before the adult ‘child’ will actually be able to succeed when they leave the ‘nest’. This must be taken care of, regardless of anything else because until it is understood and taken care of the adult ‘child’ really never makes the transition from the ‘nest’ and will continue to look to the US when things get tough!

    The easy things that were able to be done with the older and larger US next door are no longer the only thing in the world that governs us, the adult ‘child’. Unless Canada gets freed from the easy and lucrative US hooks into what we do and when we do it and how much we learn or what we create or what we earn or what it costs us or what efforts we put into the relationship with our surrogate ‘parents’ to the south Canada will never become that productive member of the world order which other countries (our potential new good friends) need to see and be comfortable with and want to work with in some sort of longer term relationship.

    The US wants Canada to do what they want done when they want it done and for how much. Canada needs to show the US that Canada is very capable of taking care of themselves and that the US needs to start to interact with Canada in the same manner that they deal with other countries. Canada cannot be treated by the US as the ‘younger dependent child’ any longer. The US may not like that the adult ‘child’ is cutting some ties and wanting to leave the ‘nest’ and set-up on our own but this is the way of the world and what countries do (like children in a family do). We grow up and we move away from home. Sure the US could kick us out or we could leave in a huff but good families part with an understanding and we maintain respect for each other. We remain friends and we want to work together but we do not want to be told what time we have to go to bed!

    We are still family with the US to a very large extent but Canada is ready to make our own decisions on what we want, when we want it, how much we are willing to pay for it, and what we expect to receive for our efforts from others. We, Canadians, want to show others what we can do and we want other countries to want us, to want Canadians to be on their team because they value us and our ethics and what we are capable of doing and providing as a country.

    And as Canada we have our own ‘family’ and we need to make sure we have taken care of them, with investments and care and helping them to grow and to learn. And that is what faces a federal government, taking care to not forget that there are ‘siblings’ within our federation, and those 10 provinces and 3 territories cannot be forced to do things. In time the ‘siblings’ in the federation will also want to stretch their wings and take on more and Canada needs to be there to support their efforts and recognize that this is only natural in the grand scheme of things. After all, Canada as a federation is a family!

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