Roundup: Offering a limited reprieve

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Because the trade war is many ways a weird power dynamic, yesterday was all about offers of reprieves. After a lengthy phone call between Justin Trudeau and Trump, there came word of a “reprieve” on tariffs for the auto sector—for a month—but at the behest of the Big Three auto companies rather than any of Trudeau’s efforts, and while there hasn’t been official word, Senior Government Sources™ are saying that Trudeau is not budging on the retaliatory measures. And why would he? The one-month reprieve came with the message from both JD Vance and Trump’s press secretary that they want those manufacturers to locate all of their factories in the US to avoid tariffs, but the “official” reason for the tariffs remains fentanyl, because Trump needs the legal fiction of a “national emergency” to use executive powers to levy tariffs rather than Congress (but he controls that, so the logic only extends so far). Oh, and now Trump is talking about agricultural carveouts, because they’re stupid and don’t realise the consequences of their actions until it’s too late.

In provincial reactions, both Danielle Smith and Scott Moe said they were pulling American liquor from their provincial liquor control boards, a day after everyone else. Smith had to put on a big show that included one of her Alberta Sheriffs holding a big rifle to show that she was super serious about them patrolling the border (not that they can legally do much more than taxi that person to an authorised federal border agent or RCMP officer). Both Smith and Moe also insisted that they didn’t want export taxes on either oil or potash, which again, is a boneheaded move of signalling to Trump that they don’t want to play their strongest cards ever (because they’re both super geniuses). Of course, it’s not their call because those powers are federal, but it’s still a sign of how unserious either of them is in the face of an existential threat. Meanwhile, Yukon premier Raj Pillai is “considering” limiting ties with Elon Musk’s businesses, like Starlink (which seems like something they should be doing more than just considering).

There was also word that there was more progress on interprovincial trade barriers and incremental progress toward credentials recognition—with some exceptions for Quebec because of linguistic requirements (but I still have questions about how they plan to get self-regulating bodies like the colleges of physicians and surgeons to play ball).

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian missile hit a hotel in Kryvyi Rih, killing three and injuring at least twenty-nine others. The Americans are cutting off the flow of intelligence to Ukraine, because they’re now on Putin’s side. A Ukrainian commander says that NATO forces are not ready for modern drone warfare. Here is an examination of the state of the war, and that it would take Russia 118 years to fully conquer Ukraine at their present rate of advancement.

Good reads:

  • Work is happening behind the scenes to accelerate the transition between Trudeau and his successor after Sunday’s leadership decision.
  • François-Philippe Champagne has issued new guidelines under the Investment Canada Act to include economic security under reviews of predatory acquisitions.
  • The government is moving ahead with labelling PFAS or “forever chemicals” as toxic, with a regulatory approach starting with two years of consultations.
  • The National Security and Intelligence Advisor says that we need to be less dependent on our partners for intelligence moving forward.
  • The RCMP have made over 100 arrests and laid over 300 charges in a massive child exploitation crackdown.
  • A CSIS report warns that adversaries will try to generate influence and interference opportunities in the strategically vulnerable Arctic.
  • Here is a reminder of the last time Canadians fought off an American invasion, during the War of 1812.
  • King Charles wore Canadian military honours while touring a UK Royal Navy aircraft carrier yesterday, which is seen as a subtle nod to Canadian sovereignty.
  • Mélanie Joly confirms that she gave a briefing to Mark Carney over the tariff issue as he’s not in caucus, but has offered them to other leadership candidates.
  • Carney says he’ll put his financial assets in a blind trust if he becomes PM.
  • Here are even more details about the revolt against Conservative MP Jake Stewart, as he has been ordering his staffers to take over his local riding association.
  • Kevin Carmichael laments that businesses in Canada have had little interest in east-west trade rather than north-south, which helped to ossify the trade situation.
  • Anne Applebaum relays the sense of unease in Europe after the ambush in the Oval Office last Friday, as they have taken the lesson that America is no longer an ally.

Odds and ends:

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