Roundup: The shuffle and the kabuki responses

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The Cabinet shuffle happened, and four ministers had a change in portfolio, with eight new faces joining the ranks. Nothing is too much of a surprise here—David McGuinty did get public safety, Nathaniel Erskine-Smith got housing as was expected and that means he is going to run again. Anita Anand is now solely transport but also got “interprovincial trade,” which is interesting. There is no minister from Alberta, as George Chahal remains tainted (and has been vocal in calling for a secret ballot in caucus on Trudeau’s future), so Terry Duguid from Winnipeg is pretty much it for the prairie representative. In some respects, this may be a “caretaker” Cabinet as the leadership question remains in the air, or it could have a short shelf-life, as threats of non-confidence circle ever-closer. It doesn’t solve any problems, it doesn’t really put a fresh face on government, and the only thing that can do that is for Trudeau to make as graceful an exit as possible, because the number of MPs who are publicly against him continues to grow, and he could very well be pushed by the next caucus meeting.

Trudeau does keep saying he wants MPs to be the "voice of their ridings in Ottawa"…

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2024-12-20T16:36:01.558Z

Amidst this, Jagmeet Singh decided to publish an open letter to say that he was ready to vote non-confidence in the government, but…blamed them for things that are completely within provincial jurisdiction, like healthcare and building housing. But more to the point, this is more performance art after he got called out by absolutely everyone for his “all options are on the table” equivocation, and this letter also didn’t specify that he would seek to vote them out at the first opportunity, so he has wiggle room. Trudeau may yet prorogue (but most likely if he does decide to step down), and if a new leader is chosen before Parliament comes back, Singh can always prevaricate and equivocate yet again about giving said new leader a chance, or something else like that. This is just more of the kabuki theatre that Canadian politics has descended into.

And Jagmeet Singh wants to rush us into the Poilievre era. Great.

— Emmett Macfarlane (@emmettmacfarlane.com) 2024-12-20T17:53:04.092Z

And then to top it all off (and possibly to try and call Singh’s bluff), Pierre Poilievre called a press conference to say that he wrote a letter to the Governor General so that she can “reconvene” parliament and demand a confidence vote. Erm, except we’re not prorogued, so Parliament is merely adjourned and not suspended, and it’s at the call of the Speaker to recall the House on a non-sitting week, not the Governor General. Never mind that the government just survived a series of confidence votes, this is deliberate obfuscation and confusion of our system, and no doubt he will attack the GG if she doesn’t accede to his request (which she can’t, because it’s not in her powers to do so). Poilievre is deliberately misleading people about how our system operates so that he can claim that constitutional safeguards are illegitimate if anyone tries to use them against him. Aspiring autocrats love to weaken the guardrails, and Poilievre is engaged in a very concerted effort to do that right now.

Programming Note: This is it for 2024, barring some major news happening. Loonie Politics content will continue on its usual schedule, but the blog is on holiday because the burnout is real. Thanks for sticking with me all year, and we’ll see you in 2025.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian missile struck Kyiv in the morning rush hour, killing at least one person and damaging a historic cathedral. Ukrainian forces needed to pull back from two locations in the eastern Donetsk region, lest they become encircled. Here is a look at some of the people staying in Pokrovsk, in spite of Russia’s advance.

Good reads:

  • Justin Trudeau has named Wendy Lisogar-Cocchia to be the next lieutenant governor of BC.
  • The Fiscal Monitor shows the current fiscal year’s deficit to be $14.5 billion between April and October.
  • The government announced that they will hold a forum on combatting antisemitism in February.
  • Jean-Yves Duclos has tacitly admitted that the Liberals haven’t prepared enough for the next election. (Seriously?!)
  • The Supreme Court unanimously “clarified” the scope of orders that Quebec’s child protection tribunal can make, but seems to have left a tiny bit of wiggle room.
  • The Canadian Press tallied up the fall sitting, and the filibuster consumed 48 out 56 sitting days because the Speaker is incompetent and the NDP play stupid games.
  • Apparently some Liberals were saying no to possible Cabinet posts, particularly after what happened to Freeland (which is why Trudeau’s stay is untenable).
  • The Post offers up some tidbits from the new biography of Chrystia Freeland.
  • Doug Ford wants to meet Trump “businessman to businessman” and pardon me because I just threw up in my mouth. (Seriously?)
  • Alberta says they’ll ban mountain-top coal mining…except for existing proposals, naming one that has previously been rejected (because of course they are).
  • Samia Madwar (a former classmate) writes about what it’s like to be a Syrian abroad in the aftermath of the Assad regime, and worrying about feeling hopeful.
  • Mike Moffatt offers (qualified) praise for Sean Fraser’s time as housing minister.
  • Justin Ling laments that Canada’s foreign policy has receded to spectator status, particularly in the situation with Gaza.
  • Althia Raj games out the political calculus for the Liberals now that Singh has declare he is going to vote non-confidence.
  • Susan Delacourt considers the past week and the shuffle, and points out that this new Cabinet is the “Plan-B team” given all of the blowups.

Odds and ends:

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