Prime minister Justin Trudeau will be shuffling his Cabinet today, and you can bet that there are a whole lot of competing narratives about it. On the one hand, many of these appointments are necessary, because you currently have a few ministers who are doing double or triple duty with complex files, and they need to have some of the load taken off so that government can still operate smoothly, despite the political crisis around Trudeau’s political future. On the other hand, there is a sense that this is Trudeau buying time, that he’s trying to secure dissenting voices’ support, and that these carrots he’s been dangling can bear some fruit among a caucus who is turning against him. Then again, making the shuffle means he loses that last bit of leverage with backbenchers who are calling for his ouster, so we’ll see which narrative winds up winning.

The buzz is that David McGuinty will be getting public safety, which may be a good fit because he may be in a position to implement the recommendations made from the NSICOP reports that he helped author as chair of the committee (but it is also a loss for the said committee with his departure, and the loss of Senator Francis Lankin as the other longest-serving member). It also sounds like Nathaniel Erskine-Smith will get housing, on the proviso that he will run again in the next election after previously saying he was going to bow out, but I also suspect that this will be tough because he can no longer be the maverick truth-teller he was in the backbenches, and will have to follow the PMO line (though he may also prove an effective communicator on the file to counter Poilievre’s bullshit). There is also talk that Rachel Bendayan, Terry Duguid and Darren Fisher will also be getting positions.

Amidst this, the Globe and Mail is reporting on contradictory rumours about Trudeau’s thoughts on his political future—one source saying he’s ready to go and is figuring out his exit plan, another source saying that he’s determined to stay put, with a third source saying he was ready to go but that Dominic LeBlanc and Marc Miller talked him out of it, and that Katie Telford is ensuring that he hears from supporters and not dissenters. It remains a chaotic mess, but one can only hope that the first source is correct, and that he is trying to figure out an exit strategy, because his remaining in office is untenable.

That’s what I keep asking myself. https://t.co/4LuUJUOQEs

— Dale Smith (@journo_dale) December 19, 2024

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian missile killed three and wounded three more in Kharkiv, while another missile hit a residence in Kryvyi Rih, injuring five. Russia also carried out a massive cyberattack on Ukrainian government registries.

Each North Korean platoon accompanies a larger company of Russian paratroopers to reclaim Ukrainian positions in Kursk Oblast, according to a senior Ukrainian official familiar with the intelligence. For @KyivIndependent https://t.co/VPIDhGZl7J

— Asami Terajima (@AsamiTerajima) December 19, 2024

This has been clear for many months. If Putin wants to negotiate, he can stop fighting anytime. And negotiate. He is the obstacle to peace, not Zelensky, and has been since the beginning of the war. Still not heard Trump explain what leverage he will use to make him stop

— Anne Applebaum (@anneapplebaum.bsky.social) 2024-12-19T11:01:48.050Z

Good reads:

• Justin Trudeau appointed two new senators, for Nunavut and Nova Scotia, including the former first-ever MP for Nunavut, and who had a hand in its creation.
• Dominic LeBlanc is reminding everyone that it’s not the government’s job to respond to absolutely everything Trump says (as it would be impossible).
• LeBlanc also says that he’s meeting with the incoming US border “czar” after Christmas to talk about the government’s plan.
• Arif Virani says that the new commission to review potential wrongful conditions will particularly be of use to those over-represented minorities in the justice system.
• Mark Holland gave a year-end interview about banning social media for youth, MAiD, and using AI in medicine.
• GHG emissions fell again last year, proving that carbon pricing is working, but we are still well away from our Paris targets.
• The outgoing US ambassador worries that we feel disrespected by the US—but then adds that he doesn’t think annexation would be a terrible thing. (Seriously?!).
• Jagmeet Singh keeps insisting that his fight in the next election is with the Conservatives and not the Liberals. (Maybe his fight will be for relevance?)
• New Brunswick premier Susan Holt has lived up to her campaign promise to unwind Blaine Higgs’ anti-trans school policies.
• The Chief Actuary of Canada gave an interpretation of legislation on how to withdraw from CPP, and not a number, and Danielle Smith is upset about it.
• Alberta is reforming how doctors get billed, and provides new incentives, but no funding for things doctors need like scribes or physicians’ assistants.
• Jessica Davis reviews the Fiscal Update for the sections around new measures to combat financial crimes.
• Emmett Macfarlane calls bullshit on Poilievre’s claims that calling a prorogation would be “unconstitutional.”

Odds and ends:

So, since 2018, oil and gas, transportation, buildings, heavy industry, and electricity (all covered by carbon pricing) have seen drops in GHGs (about 7% in each sector and the economy as a whole). Agriculture, where emissions are almost fully exempt from pricing, is flat.

— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) December 20, 2024

The context for the above thought, for the many who evidently missed the point: pic.twitter.com/eUxH7eNSUq

— Alheli Picazo (@a_picazo) December 19, 2024

Want more Routine Proceedings? Become a patron and get exclusive new content.