At long last, the federal government unveiled their long-awaited oil and gas emissions cap draft regulations, mandating that they reduce emissions by 35 percent by 2032, with the expectation that much of these reductions are going to come in the form of reducing methane emissions—much of which is already underway—and that production is still expected to rise by 16 percent over those eight years. (Five things to know about the proposal here). For an industry that insists that it’s going to be “Net Zero” by 2050, this would seem like an achievable milestone to get there along the way, but apparently not.
I have three main thoughts on the oil and gas cap: 1) how do you value abatement with all these overlapping policies; 2) why do we think we should have much more stringent policies on oil and gas than other sectors?; 3) effects on production likely aren't germane to the validity.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) November 4, 2024
Danielle Smith had a meltdown and started threatening legal action, but can’t exactly articulate on what basis that would be. Certain newspaper columnists posited that she could somehow invoke the Notwithstanding Clause, which doesn’t apply to this sort of situation in any way, shape or form (and should be disqualifying for someone writing in a newspaper with a six-figure salary).
There is no constitutional doctrine that automatically renders invalid laws which affect resource production. See the SCC in Moses for one good example. Province would have to make the argument that the primary purpose of the regs was to manage oil and gas production. 1/ https://t.co/u0xLqguvfE
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) November 4, 2024
I'm more skeptical than many as to whether these regs *should* be upheld under the criminal law power. And AB will find some sympathy for an argument that this is truly about managing oil and gas production. But, the legal hurdle isn't a matter of showing an affect on production.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) November 4, 2024
It would send a powerful message indeed: that whoever thought it was a good idea was a blithering idiot.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) November 5, 2024
You cannot invoke the notwithstanding clause to immunize yourself or your province from the application of federal law. Either Don Braid doesn't know this, which is disqualifying, or he does and decided to write that constitutional chemtrail anyway, which might be worse.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) November 5, 2024
Industry insists this is going to kill them, but they’ve been promising reductions for decades and have taken plenty of government money to help them fulfil those promises that they are now insisting are impossible. So…at what point do we start calling them on their own bullshit? If their plan is to hope that there will be magical technology by 2050 that will painlessly reduce their emission for them, well, that’s their problem. They made these promises, and it’s time they show how they’re going to live up to them.
Here's my fun fact for you for today: it's been 30 years since the first promises of an industry-government consortium to decarbonize the oil sands with carbon capture and sequestration. Notable how bullishness over Pathways seems to be eroding today among industry advocates. pic.twitter.com/KR4GkCvHz2
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) November 4, 2024
Alberta and Canada put a billion in cash and in-kind into Quest in 2011. PMSH was prepared to force new facilities to adopt the technology in his first minority. Canada boasted of ccs plans to decarbonize the oil sands in 1994. Is it too much to ask for @donbraid to do the work? pic.twitter.com/srQNcPGmSO
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) November 5, 2024
From Alberta's 2008 climate change strategy: "ultimately, CO2 capture and storage technologies provide the province with the greatest potential to substantially reduce GHGs while, at the same time, retaining our ability to produce and provide energy to the rest of the world."
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) November 5, 2024
From the Turning the Corner plan, which was released about 17 years ago. pic.twitter.com/l64vcyqPbE
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) November 5, 2024
Ukraine Dispatch
There was another Russian air attack made against Kyiv overnight, but it’s too early to tell how much damage was caused. South Korea’s defence ministry now estimates more than 10,000 North Korean troops are in Russia, but the Pentagon cannot confirm if they are currently fighting in the Kursk region.
I spoke with the Prime Minister of Canada. I’m grateful to @JustinTrudeau, his team, and everyone involved for successfully hosting the thematic conference on the fourth point of the Peace Formula, “Release of Prisoners and Deported Persons,” held in Montreal on October 30-31.… pic.twitter.com/4sweryyj5D
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) November 4, 2024
This is not a scene from Star Wars. This is the night sky over #Ukraine during a #Russian attack on #Kyiv on November 3, 2024.
📷: REUTERS/Gleb Garanich pic.twitter.com/dAnaWoTekx
— UkraineWorld (@ukraine_world) November 4, 2024
Chronic manpower shortages are at the heart of local retreats and collapses in Ukraine's defense that translate to quicker Russian gains across the front.https://t.co/OybeWxXOun
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) November 4, 2024
Good reads:
- Sean Fraser is sharing more letters of Conservative MPs asking for more of the current housing funds for their ridings, as Poilievre continues to promise to cut.
- The Auditor General has told the Public Accounts Committee that she’s not going to do another audit of the former SDTC, because her first one was good enough.
- It is believed that Russia was trying to send incendiary devices to Canada, so that they could be used to sabotage flights to Canada and the US.
- Last week, the Supreme Court of Canada refused to reconsider not hearing the case to challenge the decision not to repatriate Canadians in Syrian detention camps.
- Senator Murray Sinclair, who chaired the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, passed away yesterday. There were tributes, particularly in Manitoba.
- Liberal backbencher Chandra Arya is trying to start a fight with Jagmeet Singh over what he deems “Khalistani extremists” in Canada.
- Pierre Poilievre spent the day pitching to premiers to sign onto his GST plan for new homes under $1 million, and to also cut PST on them.
- Conservatives want to reverse the changes to “natural health products” that would require them to be recalled if they hospitalize people. Are. You. Serious?
- Quebec is planning to force new doctors educated in the province to stay and work in the public system for the first few years of their practice.
- BC port employers began a lockout of employees, escalating the labour dispute.
- Martin Patriquin looks at the scepticism that surrounds the Quebec government’s latest attempt to boost productivity in the province.
- Jen Gerson posits that John Rustad went from obscurity to nearly winning in BC because of how he framed issues where progressive moralizing no longer worked.
Odds and ends:
My Loonie Politics Quick Take on Danielle Smith surviving her leadership review, but why that may not be sustainable for her.
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