Roundup: The PBO’s new NATO numbers

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The PBO is at it again, and he released a report yesterday on his particular calculations about how Canada could get to our stated NATO goals of 2 percent of GDP by 2032-33, and that we would need to double defence spending to get there, and what that looks like if the government remains committed to its deficit and debt-to-GDP ratio targets. Fair enough, but there are a number of capital commitments in the works that include new submarines, and one has a pretty good bet that these costs will only increase as time goes by, for what it’s worth.

While this is all well and good, there was some particular language in the report that should raise some eyebrows, because Yves Giroux is talking about how other economic forecasts are “erroneous” and he is insisting therefore that his aren’t, which is…a choice. In his previous report on defence spending, Giroux went on a whole tangent about how the OECD figures used as the baseline weren’t correct and his numbers were, but NATO uses those OECD figures for their purposes, not the PBO’s. For the sake of an apples-to-apples comparison, you would think that he would use the same denominator as NATO does, but of course not. Giroux has a particular sense of hubris around his figures, and we all know what happened when he got them wrong with his first report on the carbon levy and then he tried to prevaricate and rationalize them away, and insisted there wouldn’t be any real changes when lo, there were some pretty significant ones.

While we’re on the topic, the 2 percent figure remains a bad one because the denominator—Canada’s GDP is much larger than many NATO members’, making that figure incredibly hard to reach, particularly as the economy grows, and the fact that any country could exceed that target if their economy crashed. Not saying we don’t need to spend more, because we do (and I would not expect the Conservatives to meet the target either as they pledge to cut significantly should they form government next), but we also need to keep some perspective.

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukrainian forces shot down 33 out of 62 drones plus one missile overnight, which killed at least four in various regions of the country, while Russia claims they downed 25 Ukrainian drones, as North Korea’s foreign minister travelled to Moscow. Last evening, a guided bombs struck a high rise in Kharkiv, killing a child. Russians claim to have taken the village of Kruhliakivka in the Kharkiv region.

Good reads:

  • In case you missed it repeated over and over during QP, Justin Trudeau has asked the security services to try and brief Poilievre on compromised caucus members.
  • Mélanie Joly is urging delegates at a ministerial conference in Montreal to support a plan to return Ukrainian children who had been deported to Russia.
  • Jonathan Wilkinson and Arif Virani are denouncing Danielle Smith’s latest carbon levy court challenge as the political stunt that it is.
  • CSE warns that India is building cyber espionage capabilities, that they are likely to use against Canada as the relationship deteriorates, alongside other threats.
  • While Liberal backbenchers continue to agitate for a secret ballot on Trudeau’s future, they are warning that the dismissal by ministers is making things worse.
  • Liberals got a first look at campaign preparations from the new campaign director, as well as a preview of the ads they are preparing to run.
  • Here is a look at letters Conservative MPs sent asking for funding for their communities out of programmes Poilievre pledges to cut, calling them useless.
  • Jagmeet Singh says he’s not going to play the Conservatives’ and Bloc’s game, and won’t help them topple the government early.
  • Ontario is lowering their projections for new housing completions, because the Ford government is incompetent and won’t use the tools at their disposal.
  • Matt Gurney calls out the Ford decision to send out $200 cheques as both the reason he’s good at politics and a terrible leader who isn’t fixing what’s broken.

Odds and ends:

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