Because the NATO summit is happening right now in Washington DC, you may have noticed that the entire media narrative in Canada is around the two-percent-of-GDP defence spending target (which is a stupid metric!) and how Canada has not managed to miraculously achieve it, and tossing around words like “free-rider” and “unserious.” The Elder Pundits have declared that this is the narrative by which the entire event must be framed by, and ignore absolutely all other context or counterfactuals.

Indeed, we shall not mention that the GDP denominator is a much bigger hurdle for Canada because of the size of our economy relative to many other NATO member countries, and that because our economy is growing, that pushes our spending requirements even higher. (Conversely, if we crashed the economy, we could reach that two percent target really quickly). We shall not mention that Canada contributes to NATO operations in a meaningful way, unlike many other NATO countries who may be meeting the two-percent spending target—holding the fort in Kandahar when no one else would, hitting moving targets in Libya, managing one of the most difficult missions in the Baltics right now (being the Latvian mission) as well as training Ukrainian troops into being effective soldiers who were able to hold off the invasion. Nor shall we mention that other countries claiming to reach their two percent targets have only done so through the accounting trickery of front-loading their capital spending (meaning future spending will drop off), or promising the spending in spite of constitutional restrictions around the size of deficit spending. None of these facts matter to the Elder Pundits and the narrative they have decided upon.

Sounds an awful lot to me like Canada is holding our full weight in NATO.
Not saying we shouldn’t spend more—we should! We are! But the 2% of GDP is a stupid metric that is being fixated on for absolutely no good reason.

— Dale Smith (@journo_dale) June 13, 2024

Yes, Canada needs to spend more, but you can’t just throw money at National Defence—they haven’t had the capacity to spend their full budget, which is why the spending lapses (which the PBO did get right in his report). It is taking time to build the capacity back up to spend the money, and part of that is fixing the recruitment and retention crisis (which has gone very, very slowly). But they are recapitalising the Forces in a significant way, and once we get to the submarine procurement, those numbers are going climb precipitously, but again, we want to do that cautiously to avoid the procurement problems of the past. Minister have been saying that we need there to be something to show for the increased spending, which media and the Elder Pundits have had a hard time comprehending. So, when you hear the usual “free rider” nonsense, remember that we are actually contributing, unlike a lot of other member countries.

https://twitter.com/journo_dale/status/1810866983534997849

Ukraine Dispatch

Here are more accounts from the bombing of the children’s hospital in Kyiv on Monday. Russia claims that the hospital was hit by Ukrainian fire, but offers no evidence, while the UN assessment is pretty sure it was the Russian missile that was observed. From the NATO Summit in Washington, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on Americans to keep funding Ukraine’s war effort rather than waiting for the election results in November.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1810640148444709169

“India benefits from this arrangement (with Russia), which has been accepted by Western countries and Ukraine, giving Modi little incentive to disturb the status quo,” writes Yale lecturer Sushant Singh amid Modi’s visit to Moscow.https://t.co/cDyQsvMIiG

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) July 9, 2024

Good reads:

• At the NATO summit, Justin Trudeau was cagey about spending promises and wouldn’t indulge questions about Biden’s mental fitness.
• Senior government officials say that the move to replace the Phoenix pay system is going well, but it could take five or six years to fully transition employee pay.
• The RCMP’s Musical Ride is on the precipice after poor recruitment and issues that still haven’t been sorted since the start of the pandemic.
• The RCMP have charged a former federal consultant with fraud for overbilling the government by way of fraudulent time sheets.
• AFN national chief Cindy Woodhouse Neepinak says they have a draft agreement on child welfare reforms with the federal government.
• The AFN also voted to cancel the planned forensic audit of their books that the previous (ousted) national chief had been pushing for.
• An Ontario court has certified a class-action lawsuit against the CBSA for its use of provincial jails for immigration detention (which will soon be federal prisons).
• Conservative MP Michelle Ferreri was attacked online when she denounced a Pride Flag burning in her riding. (his is what happens with LGBTQ+ scapegoating!)
• Green Party “co-leader” Jonathan Pedneault is stepping down for “personal reasons,” and the party is once again the Elizabeth May show.
• Ontario claims that expanding $10/day child care spaces is being hampered by the limit on for-profit spaces. (I’m very dubious, since they won’t pay them on time).
• Murray Brewster posits that Canada has been reluctant to meet NATO defence spending targets because we prefer soft-power approaches. (I am dubious).
• Althia Raj talks to Elizabeth May, who thinks Trudeau needs to step down, but doesn’t think her own party’s critics have a valid point.
• My column points to the elections in the UK and France and wonders if the Liberals can shake out of the complacency those results will instil in them.

Odds and ends:

“…those who foolishly sought power by riding the back of the tiger ended up inside….”

— Adam Goldenberg (@adamgoldenberg) July 9, 2024

Oh, look—it’s Garnett Genuis after I tweeted that his joke question wasn’t funny. https://t.co/cRcpflbmKV

— Dale Smith (@journo_dale) July 10, 2024

Want more Routine Proceedings? Become a patron and get exclusive new content.