If by some chance you managed to survive the complete and utter wank-fest of pollsters, poll analysts and Elder Pundits doing the media rounds yesterday without straining your eyeballs as they rolled endlessly, well, good for you. Just don’t expect anything but this to dominate the media landscape for the next several weeks to come, because going into this, the Elder Pundits declared that this was a sign that Trudeau needs to go, and they feel themselves perfectly vindicated, and they want you to know it. (Such a healthy media ecosystem we have in this country). So, while the entrails of this by-election get picked over, expect nothing but demands for a leadership review (which the Liberal Party’s constitution only allows for after a general election loss), for Trudeau to step down, and for successor chatter to spin up, with Mark Carney’s name all over the place in spite of all evidence to the contrary. (Gretchen, stop trying to make Mark Carney happen. It’s not going to happen).
This morning I issued the following statement on the results of the Toronto-St. Paul's byelection. Once again, thank you to all of our volunteers and supporters, and everyone reaching out today. pic.twitter.com/qHrDXU9lO2
— Leslie Church (@lesliechurch) June 25, 2024
Of course, Trudeau isn’t going to step down. He has convinced himself that he’s the one who can stand up to Poilievre, and that he wants to keep doing the work. Justin Trudeau, Chrystia Freeland and Karina Gould were all making the point that they have to listen more and work harder to regain trust, but the one that stuck out for me the most was Gould telling Power & Politics that they need to “do things differently,” but therein lies the problem with Trudeau. They don’t do things differently, starting with the fact that Katie Telford is still on the job and hasn’t decided that she needs to do something more with her life that just this, and being the central person by which everything flows (becoming part of the bottleneck of files this government needs to address). They are still communicating the same way after having been told time and again that it’s hindering them, and the most they’ve done is get some Gen Z staffers to put them in cringey TikToks (from their personal phones!) in addition to the same pabulum that they keep feeding us. They continue to pat themselves on the back for declaration over actions to implement those declarations. I get that they are trying to say the right things right now, but I have yet to see any desire on the part of Trudeau to do things differently, and maybe that should be the lesson here.
Oh come on. No caucus needs the (garbage) Reform Act to declare non-confidence in a leader. The (garbage) Act merely raised the barriers to make it even tougher for the caucus and to make it easier for the leader to intimidate them instead. https://t.co/JWDUlehqxv
— Dale Smith (@journo_dale) June 25, 2024
And in reaction, we have Susan Delacourt pointing out why this becomes a problem for Poilievre’s expectations management. Jen Gerson mockingly declares Trudeau to be dead in the water, because of course she does. Paul Wells also makes the observation that Trudeau will espouse making changes but won’t, and will just keep doing what he’s been doing the whole time.
Ukraine Dispatch
The shells obtained by the Czech initiative are starting to arrive in Ukraine. Ukraine and Russia exchanged 90 prisoners of war. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomed an International Criminal Court warrant for two more Russian military leaders.
https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1805173797705728292
⚡️Satellite image shows fire at ammunition depot in Russia's Voronezh region.
Satellite imagery obtained by RFE/RL shows at least two pockets of fire, consistent with local accounts of drones attacking the ammunition depot on June 25.https://t.co/OOPe5sYvEt
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) June 26, 2024
Good reads:
- Justin Trudeau was in BC to announce the financing for 17 First Nations to expand the environmental protection of the marine ecosystem off the Great Bear Rainforest.
- Mélanie Joly is calling on Canadians in Lebanon to leave because of escalating violence as the conflict in Gaza spreads.
- Anita Anand defended Canada paying social media influencers as a means of countering disinformation online.
- Arif Virani says he will review the appointment of the chief commissioner of the Canadian Human Rights Commission after past antisemitic posts were pointed out.
- Oh, look—there was no spike in the sale of secondary properties like cottages ahead of the capital gains changes, because it was never going to affect them.
- Government efforts to move on right-to-repair policies or legislation are being stymied by the complexity of the task, and some provinces refuse to play ball.
- Elections Canada is pointing to the difficulties in counting ballots during the by-election because of the 84 names on it and the size of the ballots as a result.
- Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem added his voice to the calls for someone to do something about our woeful productivity numbers (which may be distorted).
- AFN National Chief Cindy Woodhouse Neepinak says they are closing in on the child welfare reforms and the associated $20 billion that goes with it.
- The federal government’s appeal of the ruling striking down their listing of plastics as toxic was heard at the Federal Court of Appeal.
- Pierre Poilievre says he will attend the AFN’s annual general assembly in person rather than just sending a video message.
- Here are four things we know about new Conservative MP Don Stewart, and one of those is eye-rollingly stupid that the Post’s staff should be ashamed.
- My column looks at the state of government leadership in the Senate, and why Trudeau needs to make changes sooner than later.
Odds and ends:
If we’re going to re-litigate this nonsense, you weren’t lied to. A good-faith effort was made, and the parliamentary committee returned a hot garbage report that would have been impossible to enact, while everyone assumed he referred to their specific model when he didn’t. pic.twitter.com/Qp2PzVynwG
— Dale Smith (@journo_dale) June 25, 2024
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What stood out to me from what Karina Gould said was that Trudeau is the prime minister. Apart from not being keen for the ensuing chaos of a prime minister essentially appearing to be bullied into resigning by avid pollsters and columnists who are not wearing well (not you, though), I can’t imagine Harper would have resigned, or Pollievre, in that position.
And can I venture another point of view, about Trudeau’s motivation. He might love to be able to walk away, but he can’t under these conditions. People talk about ego and so on. But you also need a highly developed sense of responsibility. Something I don’t see in Polievre, by the way.