Yesterday, a group of leading Canadian economists published an open letter about the facts about carbon pricing and the rebates, and debunked several claims that conservatives around the country have been making. It was a good and necessary corrective, but of course, legacy media headlined it as them defending the Liberal plan, which they weren’t doing, particularly because while the Liberal plan includes the carbon levy and rebates, it also is full of regulation and subsidies, which these economics are explicitly not in favour of. But legacy media loves to make this a partisan fight where they have to be on one side or the other. Liberal Party comms didn’t do themselves any favours either on this one.
This is about carbon pricing. Your plan is carbon pricing + regulations + subsidies. I think you'll find there is both good and bad news for your plan in the letter. https://t.co/jQZYfcWT6c
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) March 26, 2024
This is a good time for the LPC to shut the hell up. Economists are defending the carbon tax because we're the only ones left who believe in it.
The Liberals threw it under the bus long ago. https://t.co/cP5IOJdp0G
— Stephen Gordon (@stephenfgordon) March 26, 2024
To that end, here is energy economist Andrew Leach on carbon pricing, and throwing some shade at the PBO’s rather shite report once more.
On carbon pricing, the PBO analysis is very clear: roughly 80% of Canadians get back more than they pay in carbon tax, and the net benefits to the lowest-income Canadians are big, especially in AB and SK: up to a 3% boost in household income.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) March 26, 2024
So, who benefits and who loses from "Axe the Tax" in Alberta, per PBO. The richest 20% of Albertans benefit, to the tune of $8871 per year, while the poorest 20% would lose $600 per year with the change in policies. In Ontario, the richest gain $5622 while the poorest lose $408.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) March 26, 2024
So, by all means, campaign to Axe the Tax. Wave the PBO reports around. But, make sure you read what they say. Axing the tax, and the associated rebate makes the rich materially richer and the poor materially poorer, while having little impact on the middle of the distribution.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) March 26, 2024
For the millionth time, zero is a number. Don't say that you did not attempt to account for the costs of climate change. Be clear in what you did: you set them to zero, @PBO_DPB. And that runs counter to the approach recommended by Treasury Board for analysis of regulations. 1/ pic.twitter.com/Hyg92WQSaP
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) March 26, 2024
It's right here: https://t.co/D1c1CSkPKE. Guess what? It's going to yield a very different "economic" cost of carbon pricing. 3/ pic.twitter.com/Dl6aQW8LnB
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) March 26, 2024
If Yves Giroux and team wanted an estimate of climate change impacts, they had one readily available. One mandated by the federal government in analogous situations. Instead they *chose* to value climate impacts at zero.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) March 26, 2024
Meanwhile, a number of premiers demanded to be heard at the House of Commons’ finance committee about the carbon levy, because they think that’ll do them any good, but instead, the Conservative chair of the Government Operations Committee invited them to testify today. The Government Operations Committee has fuck all to do with this file, but apparently, we no longer care about things like committee mandates anymore, so long as you can put on a dog and pony show, and gather clips for social media shitpost videos, that’s all that matters. This shouldn’t be allowed, but this is the state to which our Parliament has now debased itself. Ours is no longer a serious institution for doing serious work. It’s only about content creation, and I cannot stress enough about how absolutely terrifying this is for the future of democracy.
In this particular parliament, committees no longer have anything to do with their actual remits. It’s only about getting camera time to gather clips for more shitpost videos. That’s it. Why bother doing the actual work that Parliament is supposed to do?
— Dale Smith (@journo_dale) March 27, 2024
Ukraine Dispatch:
A Ukrainian missile attack struck a Russian naval reconnaissance vessel as well as a large landing warship. Ukraine’s navy says that they have destroyed or disabled a third of the Russian Black Sea fleet over the past two years. Here’s a look at how Ukraine’s burgeoning domestic defence industry is ramping up to provide necessary ammunition for the war. Here’s a great explanation of Ukraine’s use of drone warfare with some excellent infographics.
https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1772541600591147503
At least 32 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POW), recently captured by Russia, have been executed between Dec. 1, 2023, and Feb. 29, a report by the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) said on March 26.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 26, 2024
Good reads:
- Justin Trudeau wrote back to the complaining premiers and reminded them that they chose to be on the federal carbon backstop and could design their own systems.
- Mélanie Joly says that two airlifts of Canadians are now complete after weather delays earlier in the week.
- Ahmed Hussen says that the US was asking Canada to reinstate funding to UNRWA behind the scenes, even though they pulled their own funding.
- CRA says that 232 employees have now been fired for falsely claiming CERB.
- Bridge corporations and transport ministries around the country were sending out reassurances about the safety of our bridges following the Baltimore collapse.
- The CRA is running behind on the promise for automatic filing for low-income Canadians, and still requiring an opt-in system (which defeats the purpose).
- CSE has confirmed that Canada was also targeted by the APT31 hackers who were linked to the Chinese regime.
- Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers sounded the alarm about our flagging productivity levels at a speech in Halifax.
- CBSA officials told committee that ArriveCan still saved government money, even if “mistakes were made” in contracting out the work.
- The Canada-China committee will hear testimony on the Winnipeg Lab documents (even though it should properly be the health committee that does).
- It seems that Poilievre’s “axe the tax” slogan has found its target in a bunch of willing dupes who read all kinds of nonsense into the message.
- New Brunswick has signed their health care transfer agreement with the federal government after much delay, leaving only Quebec remaining.
- Doug Ford released a budget with a $9 billion deficit (made to look higher with a nonsense “contingency”) that keeps health and education below inflation (so cuts).
- Matt Gurney sees the mathematics of the lack of primary care physicians in Ontario not filling residencies, and it’s not good.
- Susan Delacourt worries about the increase in threats against politicians as the tone of our politics continues to get nastier and more personal.
- Paul Wells heads to Finland on the anniversary of their assession to NATO.
- My column looks at how Sean Fraser is putting provinces like Ontario on notice for not living up to their agreements on affordable housing targets.
Odds and Ends:
Capital costs of the terminal, depending on your assumptions, is $4-5 for LNG Canada, and less than that for some others. Suppose capital costs are *half* the estimates for LNG Canada, you're left with about $2.50 for gas. So, basically the same price as right now.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) March 27, 2024
And, all of those costs are based on the full project cycle. It's a bet on a spread between AB/BC prices and Asian or Euro prices of $6-8 for decades. It's not a bet on the world using gas. It's a bet on the world under-investing in gas transportation.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) March 27, 2024
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