Because some of you at the back still don’t get it, no, carbon pricing does not contribute 16 percent of inflation. It contributes 0.15 percent, because inflation is a year-over-year measure, and when the increase is steady and holding, the actual impact on inflation is negligible, because that’s how inflation works. But several of you you keep insisting that your math is correct when it’s not, and so here’s economist Trevor Tombe to try and get it through to you:
The GST adds 5% to the cost of purchasing a good or service subject to this tax. Not all items are subject to it, though. I (roughly) estimate that, overall, the GST adds an average of 2.3% for consumer expenditures as a whole. (From here: https://t.co/qhHXeoYD8h)
— Trevor Tombe (@trevortombe) November 4, 2023
The same logic is behind the carbon tax claim. The Bank of Canada said CTax has so-far raised price levels by 0.6%, similar to how GST raises levels by 2.3% (I estimate).
But inflation is about changes not levels.
— Trevor Tombe (@trevortombe) November 4, 2023
https://twitter.com/trevortombe/status/1720919364172697678
If the CTax stopped increasing, it would no longer have an impact on "inflation," but it would still influence price levels.
But even this may be wrong. Firstly, the CTax might only alter *relative* prices rather than overall levels, depending on the Bank of Canada's response.
— Trevor Tombe (@trevortombe) November 4, 2023
Anyhow, the "CTax raises inflation!" claims are wildly exaggerated. Disagree with the policy, sure, but not for this reason.
/fin
— Trevor Tombe (@trevortombe) November 4, 2023
I was going to use another example – reducing Alberta electricity prices back to levels seen in 2016-2018, but I decided that might hit some Premiers a little close to home. FWIW, electricity price levels are up 230% since May 2019. Electricity price inflation was 213% in Sept.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) November 4, 2023
Ukraine Dispatch:
Ukrainian missiles struck a shipyard in occupied Crimea, damaging a Russian warship there. There are conflicting reports about the state of the counter-offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region, where Russia claims they have halted any advance, while Ukrainians say that they continue to advance, albeit slowly. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pushes back against the notion that they have entered into a stalemate, and says they need more air defences so that Russia can no longer dominate the skies. Here’s a look at Ukrainian soldiers who have turned to jiu-jitsu after losing limbs in the war.
⚡️UPDATE: Night attack on Odesa injures 5.
All five victims have been hospitalized with shrapnel wounds, Odesa Oblast Governor Oleh Kiper said.https://t.co/SL8pja9Psx
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) November 5, 2023
Good reads:
- It was Sean Fraser’s turn over the weekend to defend the carbon price “pause” on home heating oil, and the goal to eliminate it as a heating fuel.
- Canadians trapped in Gaza were not able to leave on Sunday as had been hoped, and are now expecting to be able to on Tuesday.
- Documents show that CSIS Director David Vigneault told staff that he had full confidence in them after the leaks to media on foreign interference.
- The CBC has a rundown of what we’ve heard so far in the Cameron Ortis trial, but his claim he was acting on foreign intelligence doesn’t make any sense.
- Speaker Greg Fergus talks about the (relative) improvement in decorum, and that MPs themselves need to lead the way (which is a little bit precious).
- The Liberals are testing ads that compare Poilievre to Trump, and Conservatives are already crying “What happened to sunny ways?”
- Pierre Poilievre attended the Saskatchewan Party’s convention over the weekend to praise their resistance to the carbon price.
- Danielle Smith is going along with the “parental rights” moral panic after strong votes around those policy resolutions at the UCP convention over the weekend.
- Kevin Carmichael has high hopes that AI can improve our country’s sluggish productivity growth, if employers can embrace it.
- Shannon Proudfoot marvels at the display the Liberals put on when they announced their “pause” on the carbon price home heating oil, and what it signalled.
- Althia Raj wonders where our political leaders are as divisions mount over the war between Israel and Hamas (as though anything they would say could matter).
- Susan Delacourt takes a deeper dive into the polling numbers about how Trudeau is personally weighing down the Liberals, and why replacing him may not help.
- Paul Wells ruminates on the state of leadership in the Liberal Party, and what that particular debate is shaping up to be.
- My weekend column looks at those poll results where Canadians feel that parliamentary debate is “posturing,” “useless” and “dishonest.” (Because it is).
Odds and ends:
The annual competition was set up in 2012 and involves a variety of military skills including navigation, observation, open water rescue, and obstacle courses.
This year, the contest was hosted by 2022 winners, the Lincoln and Welland Regiment, of which HRH is Colonel-in-Chief. pic.twitter.com/pNzxorvnj5
— The Royal Family (@RoyalFamily) November 5, 2023
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