Statistics Canada released the May inflation numbers yesterday, and they were well down from the month previous, the headline number now down to 3.4 percent, which is in line what the Bank of Canada is predicting about it returning to about three percent by the end of the year. Part of this is because year-over-year gasoline prices fell, meaning that there is a base-year effect in play, but food inflation remains high (in large part because of climate change affecting food-growing regions and the difficulty in getting Ukrainian grain to market continues to keep those prices high), and mortgage interest rates are one of the factors fuelling this. Unfortunately, you have certain economists like Jim Stanford who think that this is the Bank causing this inflation, when in fact if they hadn’t raised rates when they did, higher inflation would still be ripping through the economy. (Seriously, stop listening to Jim Stanford).
It's important to get the counterfactual right: it would be quite wrong to conclude inflation would in fact be at 2.5% if the Bank hadn't increased its policy rate.
If the Bank hadn't tightened, spending would have continued to rip unchecked over the past year. https://t.co/TEqsjJ9n8W
— Stephen Gordon (@stephenfgordon) June 27, 2023
Additionally, these numbers continue to prove that Pierre Poilievre’s narratives about inflation are specious at best, but are pretty much bullshit he is squeezing into whatever the headline seems to be. Last month, when there was a 0.1% uptick in inflation, Poilievre blamed it on the news of the budget deficit, and that this was proof that the deficit was “pouring gasoline on the inflationary fire.” That was wrong, and the Bank of Canada said that the trend was that inflation was still decreasing (and that the government’s fiscal policy was not having an effect on that decelerating inflation). And lo, inflation is still decelerating, in spite of the budget deficit. It’s like Poilievre has no idea what he’s talking about.
Meanwhile, economist Stephen Gordon has a few thoughts the numbers.
This is probably the last time I'll post this chart, although I will keep tracking it.
— Stephen Gordon (@stephenfgordon) June 27, 2023
2) Inflation is levelling off, but at a level that is still outside the Bank of Canada's target range. People who are hoping the Bank will be back off from tightening should prepare to be disappointed.
3/3
— Stephen Gordon (@stephenfgordon) June 27, 2023
A possibly helpful analogy for understanding transitory inflation:
When you remove your foot from the accelerator, you slow down – you don't go into reverse.
— Stephen Gordon (@stephenfgordon) June 27, 2023
Ukraine Dispatch:
Two Russian missiles hit the eastern Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk, killing four and destroying a cafe that was fairly well known. Meanwhile, a UN human rights report shows that Russian forces carried out widespread and systematic torture of civilians they detained before executing them, but also found that Russians troops detained by Ukrainians also alleged torture and mistreatment.
https://twitter.com/united24media/status/1673784944798191617
https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1673769121450696724
A building in Sviatohirsk, Eastern part of Ukraine, where the Russian troops stayed during the occupation. The town of Sviatohirsk, one of the key towns of recreation and religious practices, is now in ruins after the Russian invasion.. pic.twitter.com/uq23fpjynR
— UkraineWorld (@ukraine_world) June 27, 2023
Good reads:
- The national climate adaptation strategy was unveiled yesterday, and part of it will tie future infrastructure dollars to projects that incorporate adaptation efforts.
- Sean Fraser announced new pathways for STEM workers to get permanent residency in Canada, with an eye to winning the race for global talent.
- Pablo Rodriguez says the government is open to providing new newsroom supports if Google and Facebook block news content in Canada and future agreements.
- Global Affairs plans to shut down Canada’s Arctic Centre in Oslo, Norway, just as Mélanie Joly says we need to expand our influence internationally.
- An independent audit of the McKinsey contracts found no political interference, even if some contracts were missing documentation.
- Provinces with existing dental care programmes saw less federal money for that dental care programme, which is what happens when provinces refuse to play ball.
- The ban on cosmetic testing on animals comes into force, even though the law is largely symbolic because the industry largely stopped two decades ago.
- The Competition Bureau released a report on grocery competition and how it needs to be improved if we are to see any changes in prices and innovation.
- The owners of Postmedia and Torstar are in merger talks, which should absolutely be barred because we don’t need any more media concentration. Cripes!
- Pierre Poilievre says Trudeau should stay out of the New Brunswick LGBTQ+ school situation and “let parents raise kids,” (meaning he’s afraid of his far-right base).
- Jagmeet Singh and the NDP want to make Olivia Chow’s win all about them, and their quest to win Toronto over from the Liberals federally.
- Western premiers are disappointed that the bail reform bill didn’t pass before the summer break (never mind that they need to invest in their justice systems).
- BC has agreed to delay their ending of using provincial jails for immigration detention in order to give CBSA more time to come up with alternatives.
- Paul Wells begins a series he calls The End of Media, and it’s a look at the collapsing mainstream press in this country, and how that changes politics with it.
- My column on how the Senate blew their chance to showcase their committee work on the gun control bill when they opted for an early summer break instead.
Odds and ends:
And WHO was PM when we lost it ..??
And WHO was PM when the PBO told the PM that Defence cuts would make the CF unsustainable ..??
AND who terminated 25% of the staff in Global affairs
AND WHO closed CIDA
AND Who closed 20% our overseas diplomatic posts
— robert lavigne (@robertlavigne) June 27, 2023
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