Roundup: Four very different by-elections today

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It is by-election day in four ridings, and each of them is going to play out slightly differently. The Liberals are pretty much guaranteed to hold in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount in Montreal, where Trudeau’s friend Anna Gainey is running, but Green deputy/co-leader Jonathan Pednault is also running. There has been a particular dynamic at play there as well around the recently-passed official languages bill, where Anglos in Quebec are particularly concerned about their rights being under attack. They are also likely to hold in Winnipeg South Centre, where the late Jim Carr’s son is running to replace him.

Potentially up for grabs in Oxford in Ontario, where the former Conservative MP has thrown his support behind the Liberal challenger because of the way in which Pierre Poilievre and Andrew Scheer put their thumbs on the scale in the nomination race because they wanted to get one of their insiders a seat, even though he’s from Brampton. That has the possibility of working against them because sometimes these safe rural ridings will still reject a parachute candidate (as evidence by when John Tory tried to run in a safe rural seat in a by-election when he was Ontario PC leader and had his ass handed to him by the local Liberal who was a local). Sometimes rural ridings can be a bit Royston Vasey. And then there’s Portage—Lisgar, where Maxime Bernier is running against the Conservatives, and they are trying to crush him once and for all to prove they can again “unite” the right, and they’re doing that by invoking WEF conspiracy theories, and pandering to convoy supporters, homophobia and transphobia, and anti-abortion sentiment, because that’s exactly what’s going to unite the right.

And there is still one more to come, as Trudeau declared the Calgary Heritage by-election will be held on July 24th. This one had been delayed because of the Alberta election, given that it would be confusion for voters in the riding, and the fact you’re drawing from the same volunteer pool.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Amidst fierce fighting, the Ukrainians have re-taken the settlement of Piatykhatky in the Zaporishshia province. Ukrainians also say that they have destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Kherson. The UK military assessment of the counter-offensive is that both sides are taking heavy casualties, but the Russian losses are probably at their highest since the peak of their attempt to take Bakhmut. One of the side-effects of the destruction of the Kakhovka dam in Ukraine is that it has uncovered some ancient Cossack archaeological sites that the Soviets didn’t care about flooding when they built the dam, but they will likely be flooded again once the dam is rebuilt.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1670338729007874049?s=61&t=2SHRFoo_xxddaDpzippI_w

Good reads:

  • After Mélanie Joly promised a Canadian office in the Dominican Republic to assist with Haiti’s police, the Dominican foreign minister says there is no agreement.
  • Here’s a look at Marco Mendicino and the trouble that he finds himself in.
  • Pascale St-Onge talks about how Pride feels different this year because of rising attacks, and why she wants more people to speak out about it.
  • The federal and Ontario governments have come to a $10 billion settlement agreement with the 21 Robinson Huron First Nations around use of their lands.
  • There is a sexual misconduct investigation against one of the Canadian Snowbirds pilots, and they will be one plane short because they have no spare pilots.
  • Our ambassador to China is trying to thread the needle of maintaining our economic relationship without treating China like an adversary or enemy.
  • The CBC has an explainer about prison security determinations.
  • The Canadian Press has a look into the reaction around the bloodletting that happened with CTV, and the long-term damage it does.
  • Erin O’Toole continues his farewell rehabilitation tour, insisting that he still thinks the party needs to “moderate” as though it was what he tried. (It wasn’t).
  • Jason Markusoff notes Danielle Smith’s habit of going to the ramparts claiming oppression over things with simple explanations, which keeps happening.
  • Jennifer Robson describes how her time with a disability has opened her eyes to policy challenges in Canada, and how government need to reflect this experience.
  • Chantal Hébert previews the possible narratives coming out of Monday’s by-elections, and what they signal for the leaders.
  • Paul Wells relays and reflects on some of what he heard at the recent conference on assessing our responses to COVID.

Odds and ends:

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