Roundup: Sanctions take time to really bite

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It’s now around day forty-nine of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and it’s carrying on as Putin insists that they will continue until they meet their goals. This as there are unconfirmed reports that chemical weapons were used in an attack in Mariupol, while Russian spokespeople from Donbas were discussing the possibility. That could lead to another escalation in sanctions, and talk of “red lines,” though that didn’t seem to do much good when it happened in Syria. The mayor of Mariupol says that more than 10,000 civilians have been killed as the strategic port city continues being flattened by Russian forces. Ukrainian government officials also say that they have thwarted an attempt by Russian hackers to knock out power to parts of the country, and it’s worth noting that Canada has been providing cyber-security assistance to Ukraine.

On the subject of sanctions, there are lots of questions circulating about how effective they really are if the invasion continues, and it’s one of those things for which it’s not an easy answer. Yes, they’re hurting Russia, but Putin and his inner circle seem fairly insulated from some of the worst of it, in part because they managed to stop the ruble from collapsing entirely. That makes it even more imperative to provide military support to Ukraine so that they can defeat Russia on the battlefield, which will hurt Putin more. This doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t carry on with sanctions, because we should, but they’re at the point where they are hurting us as well, and we had Conservatives demanding exemptions for farmers last week who bought fertilizer from Russia before the conflict began and now don’t want to pay the tariffs associated. But for sanctions to be effective, they will hurt us as well, and people seem to forget that.

As well, this conflict is now going to have an effect on inflation globally, because of the effect of diverting from Russian oil and gas, and from the effect this war has on Ukraine’s ability to produce and export food, as the breadbasket of Europe. Of course, it’s going to continue to be blamed on government spending (never mind that it actually isn’t, and this is a global problem), and the Bank of Canada is going to hike rates this week if only because they need to be seen to be doing something about the problem even if it won’t actually address the root causes of these price increases. Things are messy, and it’s going to take time for everything to work itself out, but what will really help is for Russia to get out of Ukraine.

Good reads:

  • Justin Trudeau’s budget sales tour was in Edmonton to talk about small business taxes, and met with Ukrainian and Afghan communities.
  • Chrystia Freeland was in Halifax to tout medical student loan forgiveness for doctors and nurses who practice in rural and remote communities.
  • Mélanie Joly had a call with her counterpart in Beijing, saying that we need China’s buy-in to help end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
  • Dr. Theresa Tam confirms that we’re in a sixth wave, while NACI “strongly recommends” everyone get third doses.
  • The federal government is already backtracking on the budget pledge to require all asylum claimants to use online applications, as that can be too onerous for some.
  • The IRB has determined that Chelsea Manning is ineligible to enter Canada because of her criminal convictions that would be a ten-year prison term in Canadian law.
  • Public sector unions say that some 1,828 civil servants remain on unpaid leave because of the vaccine mandate, and the six-month review of the policy is late.
  • The group of Black civil servants launching a class action lawsuit against the government say the supports offered in the budget weren’t sufficient.
  • Jean Charest has released a child care policy that basically enriches the current one.
  • Patrick Brown wants to rescind the designation of the Tamil Tigers as a terrorist entity, and wants to apologise to that community for the designation.
  • Pierre Poilievre’s camp wants pre-paid credit cards banned for membership sales, but can’t point to specific examples of fraud using them.
  • The more Alberta becomes a two-party system, the nastier its politics gets.
  • In The Line, Joti Heir points to the delays in Canada’s ability to process travel authorisations for Ukrainians, worrying that the “emergency” isn’t being felt.
  • Heather Scoffield expresses some scepticism about the “modern supply-side economics” in the budget, particularly as it can take time to build capacity.
  • John Michael McGrath looks at Pierre Poilievre’s housing plans, and points out that there isn’t a coherent plan on the left side of the spectrum either.
  • My column looks at Pierre Poilievre’s pronouncements on housing, and how his selling snake oil to angry people is being met by government bromides.

Odds and ends:

The Supreme Court of Canada has released their 2021 Year in Review.

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