Roundup: The competing pre-budget narratives

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We are now on or about day forty-two of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the talk of the day was president Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s address to the UN Security Council, where he recounted (with video) the extent of Russia’s atrocities in towns like Bucha, and demanded war crimes tribunals, and more importantly, massive reform of the Security Council in order to strip Russia of its veto powers. That, of course, is far easier said than done, particularly because the major powers won’t play if they don’t get additional powers, and Russia is a nuclear power. So we’ll see what happens next (which may be nothing).

Closer to home, we are now one day away from the budget, so expect a lot of narratives about the expectations, whether the government should spend more or cut back, though I find there to be some problems with some of the assumptions therein. For example, when it comes to spending, I’m not sure why things like more money for housing or the investment in dental care would be classified the same as subsidies to industries or so on. Is an expansion of the social safety net the same as expansionary fiscal policy that would ordinarily be used to create jobs or growth (which is less relevant right now given that we are sitting around full employment)? I’m not sure they’re the same, but they seem to be treated as much in some of the pieces circulating in the Discourse right now.

At the same time, we should also be realistic about what the budget can and cannot do, such as combatting inflation. In spite of facile narratives that government spending is driving inflation, that’s not showing up anywhere in the data—what is driving it has a lot more to do with the world price of oil (which is directly impacted by the sanction on Russia as a result of their invasion of Ukraine), and the fact that there were droughts in food-producing regions including Canada, thus limiting food supplies and driving up costs, and that the invasion is going to make it worse as Ukraine was considered the breadbasket of Europe (and elsewhere), and if they can get crops planted this year, there are problems with the Russians having targeted ports. Add to that the rising cost of housing (which is largely a problem of supply driving by craven municipal governments who can’t authorize zoning changes or increase density because they’re afraid of NIMBYs and/or are in the pockets of developers), and you wind up with a whole lot of things that the federal budget can’t really do much about. Not that there won’t be an effort to put all of the weight on the federal government regardless, because that’s how we roll, apparently.

Good reads:

  • After a meeting with territorial premiers, Justin Trudeau is hinting that part of defence spending increases will be focused on the Arctic.
  • The bill to force web giants to pay for news content has now been tabled, and here are a few of the questions about it answered.
  • The Chair of the CRTC defended the regulator’s ability to oversee streaming services as broadcasters without infringing on freedom of expression.
  • NACI says that provinces should prepare to give fourth doses to elderly and immunocompromised patients, and could expand to the general population.
  • What’s that? It took two years for this report to find that municipalities are hold the cards when it comes to housing affordability? You don’t say!
  • Unifor has turned over the money from that alleged kickback scheme to police, and an investigation has been launched into former president Jerry Dias.
  • At committee, opposition MPs complained that the Auditor General didn’t look into the problems with quarantine hotels (which she said wasn’t her role to).
  • Apparently Leona Alleslev will launch her leadership bid today. That makes eleven declared candidates (though I doubt many will meet the fundraising test).
  • Michelle Rempel Garner’s bill on a framework for crypto currencies started debate, and raises the question of why conservatives are getting obsessed with it.
  • Jagmeet Singh is performatively expecting the government to live up to their agreement in the budget, as though that wasn’t already happening.
  • The Alberta government is being sued for doing too much during the pandemic, and Dr. Deena Hinshaw was on the stand to defend her advice, and I can’t even.
  • Heather Scoffield notes that many of the Conservatives’ ideas to combat inflation are just going to make the problem worse, as they don’t tackle the root causes.
  • Susan Delacourt sees some (unintentional) parallels between Pierre Poilievre and Justin Trudeau from how his leadership contest played out.
  • My column wonders if a government that is unable to communicate their way out of a wet paper bag can actually sell their emissions reduction plan.

Odds and ends:

Here is a look at what we know of the history of budget shoes for finance ministers, as Chrystia Freeland will be announcing her selection today.

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