As the omicron variant continues to surge and stress hospital systems around the country, the federal health minister has started issuing a warning to provinces—the federal government’s resources to help provinces are finite, and that provinces are going to need to do more to bend their curves and reduce caseloads, because the federal government is about tapped out. That could include stricter vaccine mandates within provinces, because they may not have a choice as the unvaccinated continue to swamp the healthcare system. (This is where Jason Kenney and his mini-me, Scott Moe, immediately declared that it wasn’t going to happen in their provinces).

Duclos mentions a few times that Ottawa has far fewer human resources in healthcare than provinces, at one point suggesting the military supply of doctors/nurses/etc. is less than a city like Quebec City.

— Dylan Robertson (@withfilesfrom) January 7, 2022

Duclos warns provinces “that they need to act” because Ottawa might be unable to help. How? asks the sharp @LauraOsmanCP. Duclos then says provinces are acting, but mentions public health restrictions, combined with supports for those economically impacted.

— Dylan Robertson (@withfilesfrom) January 7, 2022

The Canadian Forces’ own medical abilities are very finite, and even before the pandemic, they were already short thousands of bodies necessary to do all of the work they’re supposed to be doing. The pandemic has very much not helped this situation, and between pandemic needs and natural disasters (wildfires and floods), the military is having a hard time doing its own job and preparing soldiers for possible combat deployments when provinces keep demanding more military help—and there is talk that Ontario should bring in more military personnel to deal with the crisis that is yet again brewing in its long-term care homes. This is not only not sustainable, but I suspect there is also a troubling willingness on the part of provinces to simply turn to the federal government (and federal dollars) because it’s easier than doing the hard work on their own, in their own backyards.

There is a larger conversation to have, a Defence Review, some might call it to perhaps actually prioritize domestic emergency operations and figure out how to change institutions, incentives, culture to facilitate such a shift.
But in the short term, maybe if Ford paid better…

— Steve Saideman (@smsaideman) January 7, 2022

The challenge is:
the provinces are the ones who can ask for help
the feds are the ones who are responsible for generating/allocating resources.
Lots of perverse incentives (hey, the feds can pay for nursing if military is doing it?)
And not near enough social science on this

— Steve Saideman (@smsaideman) January 7, 2022

The first round of LTC stuff also caused a great deal of stress as the soldiers had seen much abuse and neglect, and that stress had a lasting impact.

— Steve Saideman (@smsaideman) January 7, 2022

Yes, the federal government is doing what it can, but at this point in the pandemic, a lot of bad decisions by provinces are catching up with them, but we already know that the blame is going to fall on the federal government because they couldn’t do enough to fix the premiers’ mistakes (and really, they have neither the jurisdiction, the capacity, or the necessary competence to do so). But too many bad actors are willing to blame the federal government because it suits there purposes to do so, and I will bet you that virtually nobody in the media will bother to correct them because too many of them believe the maxim that “nobody cares about jurisdiction in a pandemic,” even though real life doesn’t work that way, and no amount of political willpower (or Green Lantern rings) can change that fact. And premiers whose bad judgment cost thousands of lives will get away with it, because we have an allergy to holding the right people to account in this country.

Good reads:

• Jonathan Wilkinson says the government is revamping its methane reduction fund in order to address concerns raised by the environment commissioner.
• Mélanie Joly is calling for “restraint and de-escalation” in Kazakhstan as Russian troops have landed in the country to put down protests.
• Patty Hajdu says that military assistance is being coordinated with Bearskin Lake First Nation after the official request came in from Ontario.
• RCMP detachments around the country are bracing for staff shortages thanks to omicron outbreaks.
• Kevin Carmichael delves into the jobs numbers and tries to divine how the Bank of Canada will turn those into future rate guidance.
• Matt Gurney laments our inability to discuss how to improve our healthcare system.
• My weekend column looks at things Canada should be doing right now to prepare for the inevitable decline of America, if we want to survive it.

Odds and ends:

Colby Cosh weighs the situation of Novak Djokovic in Australia, and the familiar feeling of federal and state authorities not communicating with one another.

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