Roundup: Shifts on the ground

So, that was the election – the overall seat count doesn’t look like it’s change much, but on the ground it shifted quite a lot in plenty of places, with Conservatives making more breakthroughs in Atlantic Canada, and the Liberals making a comeback in Alberta. Two sitting ministers lost their seats – Bernadette Jordan and Maryam Monsef, and Deb Schulte was trailing around the time I posted this and went to bed. Those shifts to count for something, and they will mean a different make-up in the House once it returns, probably in late October.

While you’ll hear a lot of talk about how this election was “useless” given the result, I’ve got a column coming out later today that addresses those concerns, but I also wanted to make note about the question of timing – Trudeau pretty much had to go when he did because any later would have run into the municipal elections in Quebec and Alberta, which would spread their volunteer pool too thin, and going after that would mean an election close to Christmas, which everyone would bitch about (and Trudeau would want to avoid something like what happened in 2006). Meanwhile, going later would have meant more weeks of deadlocked bills in the Commons, for little added benefit.

As for the speeches:

  • Annamie Paul was up first, after placing a distant fourth in her riding (which was in no way a surprise). She gave some thanks to her volunteers, staff and family, but gave no indication of what her future plans are as leader, given the fact that the loss of another Green seat (while gaining one new one) won’t help her case as staying on as leader.
  • Erin O’Toole did not really give a concession speech, did not congratulate Trudeau on his win, but essentially made a promise to keep campaigning while falsely claiming that Trudeau had previously threatened another election in the next 18 months (whereas Trudeau simply warned that another hung parliament would likely wind up with another election in that time). O’Toole also made a few more false statements before calling it a night, essentially daring his party to keep him on as leader.
  • Yves-François Blanchet was also fairly bullish, but did concede that they needed to be more cooperative and said that the Bloc would participate in said cooperation, because they are still in a pandemic. That could mean Blanchet is the willing partner for the first few months of Trudeau’s agenda.
  • Jagmeet Singh was more gracious than the others in congratulating the PM on his victory, but then proceeded to take credit for the pandemic supports, and insisting that he will continue to push for things like dental care and his wealth tax which will be extraordinarily difficult to implement.
  • Trudeau was last, declaring that Canadians were sending his party back to work with a “clear mandate” – and *sigh* no, we don’t have mandates in our system of government. He also noted that voters have “Given this parliament and this government a clear direction.” Trudeau was the most gracious of all of the leaders in his victory, thanking the other leaders and their families, the Elections Canada staff and volunteers, and started quoting Laurier in talking about looking to the future that they hope to build together.

Good reads:

  • O’Toole’s campaign chair declared mid-afternoon, to manage expectations, that keeping Trudeau to a minority parliament would constitute a win.
  • Here’s a look at how both Maxime Bernier and Jason Kenney played spoiler for O’Toole and his chances.
  • Jagmeet Singh didn’t make any material gains in terms of seats or influence.
  • Stephen Saideman expounds on his concerns that high-ranking retired military members are offering political endorsements
  • Kevin Carmichael unpacks the inflation data even more, and gives yet another reassurance that no, it’s not cause for concern (just yet).
  • Heather Scoffield sees opportunities for the parties to work together on the affordability file.
  • Althia Raj considers the results to mean that Trudeau did not receive a public rebuke for the election.
  • Susan Delacourt doesn’t see this election wrapping up with a neat bow, but rather sees it as a continuation in a long series, where things keep chugging along.
  • Paul Wells notes that for Trudeau, a win is a win, and Erin O’Toole won’t be able to claim the same thing from the opposition benches.
  • Colby Cosh calls out the hypocrisy of American statesmen who are concerned about foreign interference endorsing Canadian political leaders in our election.

Odds and ends:

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6 thoughts on “Roundup: Shifts on the ground

  1. I still don’t understand what the election was supposed to accomplish. If the bills were deadlocked in the commons won’t they just get deadlocked again now when they’re re-tabled?

    Also, the stuff about how there was procedural warfare and parties weren’t cooperating, surely that will still be the case? Maybe even worse because they’re annoyed about the election so they are less likely to cooperate with the Liberals and inclined to make things difficult for them out of spite.

    • There is less likely to be deadlock off the start because nobody can afford another election right away. That gives them breathing room for bills to start moving, whereas what emboldened them this spring was that you had two leaders who were ready to go to an election and were just waiting out the pandemic to make their moves. Trudeau can essentially call their bluffs for the next year or so.

  2. And so, there we have it! Our PM presides over a minority government cause by the rump Bloc who fielded not one candidate in the rest of Canada yet in order for the Liberals to get anything through parliament Trudeau must make accommodation with Blanchet. Of course we know for all O’Toole’s rhetoric about having care and concern for Canadians he and his fractured {on policy} party will steadfastly oppose any and all action the Liberals will propose for the welfare of Canadians. Weird position that don’t you think? However that is the mean Conservative playbook at work. As for the perennial loser, the NDP the perpetual dreamers, Singh will despite his animus of his political cousin Trudeau will vote to support, all the while finding ways to weasel away from that support because won’t be able to conduct another campaign for a very long time because the NDP is broke and in debt. As for the soon to be leaderless Greens, they have had years to develop a fiscal policy which would define, at least for them, the way forward for Canada in a green economy. I doubt that Elizabeth May the defacto Green leader will cast any vote for the Liberal agenda, just on the basis of optics. There is no need to speak much about the PPC as there are no MP’s. All one can say is it will be important to watch what happens in the future to this disaffected rump of misfits and how it could provide a sort off base for the neo Nazis.
    So, now what?
    The naysayers on climate will continue to attack Trudeau but continue to cash their rebate checks or tick off their tax deductions while buying pickup trucks with huge V8 engines. The anti abortion people will still continue to try to enforce their beliefs upon young women who have choice in Canada. These shrill evangelistic misguided know full well that there is no impediment for them against not having a pregnancy termination in Canada, but many other issues the use the tyranny of the christian masses to inject fear into the women of the nation. Ironically, these efforts are in the main pushed by women of “faith.”
    So modern, so compassionate, so pathetic. So, life will proceed along the predestined path. Everything for the 50% who oppose Trudeau will continue to say “it’s Trudeau’s fault.” Those who oppose him will continue to reap the benefits of the Liberal’s social programs and once the NDP’s war chest is refilled and The conservatives get the acquiescent leader the require, we will go back to the polls hoping the result will differ knowing that it won’t matter under the current system. Bon Voyage everyone. Dig your oars deep, and hope we don’t get swept away on a creek with no end.

  3. Do you think Erin O’Toole was as confrontational with Trudeau in the phone call as he suggested? I can’t remember what he said, but people always say politicians are friendly behind the scenes and it didn’t sound like it.

    Such a churlish speech.

  4. Columnists keep saying that the parties have an opportunity to work together on this or that issue. The problem is, in practice they don’t. I actually get the sense that the main opposition leaders (O’Toole and Singh) do not like Trudeau very much on a personal level. I question in fact whether or not that feeling is mutual on the PM’s part, especially since the impetus for this election appears to have been the abhorrent display at the ethics committee whereby the NDP and Tories spent an entire year dragging his mother and brother through the mud in what amounts to a Hunter Biden conspiracy theory.

    Canadians told the parties to get back to work and collaborate. I am pessimistic about the prospects of that actually happening. It won’t be long now before they’re running to the principal’s office again and whining to Mario Dion that Trudeau should face an investigation over receiving a pair of socks from a Liberal donor or some such nonsense.

    If Trudeau aims for a long-shot fourth term, I suspect he will be wiser this time and let the opposition bring down the government with a poison-pilled budget or making something else a confidence vote, like he did with the farcical star-chamber committee last October. It’s really a shame that media does not inform Canadians of just how toxic the opposition have made this parliament out of their abject vitriol towards the PM because I suspect they would be sick and tired of their BS.

  5. Aw, Dale, I read your column about the election and now I’m sad. I like Chrystia Freeland but I don’t want Trudeau to leave just yet. Sadly I suspect you’re right. I don’t know why he receives such vitriol but I guess all good things must come to an end. I’ll miss him. 🙁

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