Roundup: False narratives about the Q2 GDP

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The figures for second quarter GDP were released yesterday, and they weren’t as good as had been expected. There was a surprise contraction of 1.1% annualized, which caught economists off-guard (and perhaps Statistics Canada as well, as their flash estimate a month previous had still shown growth). The majority of these declines were in the months of April and May because of the third wave, as June had shown robust growth in nearly all sectors as economies around the country re-opened – and those declines were largely in the areas of home resales and exports. To an extent, the home resales was a bit of a correction – after giant increases in previous quarters, most especially Q3 of 2020, the market slowed down.

For Erin O’Toole and Pierre Poilievre, however, these figures were a cataclysmic sign that Trudeau can’t “manage” the economy, and that it’s deficits that are leading to inflation, which is insane. A lot of the weakness is attributable to the Third Wave and its associated lockdowns, and that is squarely the fault of premiers who opened up too soon, reduced restrictions too fast, and then were too slow to re-impose them (and we’re going to get more of that in the oncoming fourth wave). More than anything, it’s reflective that O’Toole and Poilievre aren’t even bothering to read the data beyond the headlines, and are slotting it into pre-arranged talking points which are so divorced from reality that it should be concerning to anyone paying the slightest bit of attention. The fact that Poilievre is goading the Bank of Canada over Twitter is a Very Bad Thing. He’s continuing to politicise them, and feeding into a bunch of poisonous populist narratives, and O’Toole is joining him for the ride. This is a very bad thing for our economy, and it doesn’t matter that they’re doing it all for show and that they probably will keep things status quo should they form government – the fact that they are polarising the debate and riling up these same toxic mobs that have been following Trudeau’s campaign around is absolutely a problem. This kind of rhetoric should be disqualifying for anyone who seeks higher office in this country.

Meanwhile, as you may have heard, Erin O’Toole reiterated his promise to balance the budget without making any cuts (in spite of promising earlier to cut things like the CBC) because he’s going to grow the economy enough. Why does that sound familiar?

https://twitter.com/robert_hiltz/status/1432799152266694657

On the campaign trail:

  • Justin Trudeau was in Kanata, Ontario, to promise the creation of a new provincial transfer dedicated to mental health funding.
  • In Sudbury, Trudeau gave his strongest denunciation of the anti-vaxx crowd yet, and called out Erin O’Toole for siding with them.
  • Erin O’Toole was in Ottawa to promise a balanced budget in ten years with no cuts – really! (No Doug Ford promises there).
  • Jagmeet Singh was in Coquitlam, BC, vowing to take on house-flippers.
  • Liberal incumbent Raj Saini is being allowed to run again in spite of allegations of unwanted sexual advances (which have been investigated to some extent).
  • At an NDP campaign event on Thursday, local First Nations chiefs endorsed the Liberal candidate over incumbent Niki Ashton, as Singh stood next to them.
  • Here is an exploration of Erin O’Toole’s curiously social democratic pro-worker policies.
  • Economists looked over the NDP’s plan to scrap the Output-Based Pricing System on industrial emissions, and find it would collapse the economy in the process.
  • Here is a look at Jagmeet Singh’s challengers in Burnaby South.
  • It looks like 44 percent of all candidates nominated in this election cycle are women, which is up from 42 percent in 2019.
  • Heather Scoffield is not assured by the Liberals and Conservatives’ assurances that they can grow their way out of deficit (until she sees the PBO’s numbers).
  • Susan Delacourt reflects on the protesters she witnessed while on the Trudeau media tour, and the combination of Trumpism and conspiracy theory on display.

Good reads:

  • Oh, look – the Federal Court has admonished CSIS for failing their duty of candour in their warrant applications yet again, citing “institutional and systemic negligence.”
  • Canada has agreed to resettle some 5000 Afghan refugees rescued by the United States, who will count toward the goal of 20,000 resettlements.
  • Assembly of First Nations national chief RoseAnne Archibald released her organisation’s list of priorities for the election (but is endorsing nobody).
  • Kevin Goertzen has been chosen as Manitoba’s new premier and interim PC party leader until a permanent leader can be chosen.
  • Adnan Khan recounts the ordeal of a couple of families with close ties as they managed to make it to the Kabul airport and out of the country.
  • My column calls out Erin O’Toole’s selective blindness around Cheryl Gallant’s nuttery, and puts it into the bigger picture of his deception and opportunism.

Odds and ends:

https://twitter.com/jm_mcgrath/status/1432696681326387202

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One thought on “Roundup: False narratives about the Q2 GDP”

  1. ” This kind of rhetoric should be disqualifying for anyone who seeks higher office in this country.”

    Meanwhile, the privileged media gaslights anyone who argues that they are, indeed, at the root of the anti-Trudeau/anti-Liberal vitriol and guilty of polluting the discourse with hatred and misinformation. We’re told that O’Toole’s Cons are “moderates” now and any cries to the contrary are just “Liberal desperation.” I hate the nightmare that the MSM is sleepwalking Canada into. They’re just as guilty and complicit in their targeting of one man who just wanted to make Canada a better place to live. A pox on their houses.

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