It was Earth Day yesterday, and US President Joe Biden held a climate summit, which Justin Trudeau used as a platform to announce that Canada would be setting a more ambitious climate target of 40 to 45 percent reduction of emissions from 2005 levels, and naturally, that was panned from all sides. For the NDP, the Bloc and the Greens, it’s not enough, and for the Conservatives, it’s too much, and “empty words” that lack a plan (despite all evidence to the contrary). One of the spanners in the works here is the Americans announcing their own new targets, which sound more ambitious than ours – but are they really?
Enter economist Andrew Leach, who is offering a warning that we can’t commit to matching American emissions targets because our emissions mix is very different, so we’d be essentially making a different commitment than they are, which could hurt us. The Americans can get much further on reductions that we can with less stringent policies because of their emissions mix. Unfortunately, too many of our parties and party leaders seem to think that Canada is just a smaller version of America, and that we can simply copy their policies and divide by ten – but it doesn’t work like that, and we should call out this kind of thinking.
Give me a call when the US has the equivalent of an economy-wide $50/t carbon price with all major parties committed to that or more, a nation wide coal phase out by 2030, and a power system that's 80+% fossil fuel free. You can't use border carbon tariffs to equalize outcomes.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) April 21, 2021
I updated my Canadian emissions targets and trends graphs based on today's announcement from @JustinTrudeau. I'd love to be able to show the projections that get us to 36% below 2005 that were cited in the budget but they're not public yet. pic.twitter.com/hypFjAS9vV
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) April 22, 2021
A reminder: stringent regulatory initiatives are easy to propose, but really hard to implement. pic.twitter.com/0pF4cP2Q1K
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) April 22, 2021
More than 70% of the UK's electricity was generated from coal in 1990. If only we'd have exhibited such climate leadership, we too could achieve such deep cuts in emissions relative to 1990 levels by 2030. https://t.co/3FfWH1TmGV
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) April 22, 2021
Don't concentrate on baselines, concentrate on either reductions relative to business-as-current or, even better, stringency of policies required to meet the target. If your electricity was 70%+ from coal in 1990, meeting a big cut relative to that year could be really easy. https://t.co/kgS0oouqp5
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) April 22, 2021
Good reads:
- The government has implemented a thirty-day ban on direct flights from India and Pakistan in response to the explosion in variant cases in those countries.
- As a reminder, expert opinion is largely that flight bans don’t tend to work, but more robust quarantine and screening does (assuming local authorities enforce it).
- It looks like we’re not getting any AstraZeneca doses from India this month as planned, but more Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson doses will more than make it up.
- Here is a reminder that the UK and Israel still had lockdowns for their third waves in spite of faster vaccination campaigns (despite what Erin O’Toole is trying to peddle).
- One of the women who came forward with allegations about General Vance says he fathered her two children and considered himself “untouchable” by military police.
- The current budget has $4 billion set aside to have an army of young Canadians lead a digital adoption for small businesses to get them online.
- Funds from the 2019 budget on critical infrastructure cyber-security is still waiting for a legislative framework so that it can be spent.
- Here is some of the behind-the-scenes drama to Doug Ford’s flailing panic last Friday, and that he was likely listening to his campaign director and pollster.
- Andrew Leach evaluates Erin O’Toole’s climate plan, and offers some constructive suggestions to keep it from being the hot mess that it is at present.
- Robert Hiltz savages Doug Ford’s teary press conference and the faux apology theatre that he put on display.
Odds and ends:
My latest piece for the CBA’s National Magazine looks at the regulatory sandbox for legal tech that has been approved for Ontario.
My book #UnbrokenMachine is currently 25% off at the @dundurnpress site, as is the book I contributed to, #RoyalProgress. If you haven’t checked them out yet, this is your opportunity. https://t.co/knf87Htrad
— Dale Smith (@journo_dale) April 5, 2021
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Oh, so it was “allegedly” Nick and Kory who had input into Doug’s “strategy” or lack thereof. Yet another reason why nobody should take his lousy biased polls seriously. At least Doug didn’t lock down Kelsey’s otherwise Nick would have had to break in again.
A useful reminder that this government full of incompetent crooks couldn’t even make licence plates.
Hey J.B. That was harsh! I however tend to agree. After this latest Ford fiasco, I am content to envision thug oozing his way into the swamp of unelectability. I am trying hard, as the muck covers his hooded eyeballs, to contemplate one of the other totally inept parties who would be acceptable. The Canadian Coalition sounds like a flyer. Stay tuned!