Roundup: No, there won’t be a spring election

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I wanted to take a few moments to vent, dear readers, about the constant talk about an election. Because, quite frankly, there is too much talk about it right now and it’s starting to do my head in. There is no chance that anybody actually wants to go to an election right now, and yet that’s all anyone can talk about. We’re seeing another round of “exclusive polls” being published here, there and yonder, because everyone is super keen on it, for no reason other than the pundit class has become bored and are itching for something to do.

Guys. Stop trying to make an election happen. It’s not going to happen.

We are still not out of the second wave, and there won’t be sufficient vaccine distribution to reach the bulk of the population until the end of September. Any party that tries to push an election before then is going to be suicidal, no matter how high their poll numbers may be looking for them. The Liberals are not going to force it now because their numbers are healthy, because Canadians know when parties are cynically trying to take advantage of those numbers and force an unnecessary election – there is plenty of precedent of governments being punished for doing so. The fact that the vaccine rollout has had hiccups that have punished them at the polls (in part because these same pundits have decided to coalesce on the narrative of “botched” and “off-the-rails,” in spite of facts and logic) would make anyone too hesitant to pull the trigger, even on the strength of what they’re offering on the budget. Unless the other parties vote down said budget or a non-confidence motion (over what? Something that the PM has little control over and they could do no better on), any attempt to go to the GG or the Administrator outside of that would immediately be clocked as a cynical ploy while there’s a pandemic on. The fact that some provinces have done so is not licence for the federal government to do so.

“But they need to do it this year or it’s not going to happen!” is usually what I hear as an excuse. Maybe in the fall, on an economic update – maybe. But frankly, with the vaccinations rolling up then, and the economy re-opening for realsies (we hope), frankly I would presume people to be too busy or preoccupied to focus on an election, or to want one for no reason other than for the Liberals to try and regain a majority parliament. Nevertheless, anyone who thinks it’s going to happen in the spring or even the summer is huffing the fumes of those polls.

Good reads:

  • Justin Trudeau defended accepting COVAX doses, because the programme depends on donor countries accepting vaccines. Here is an explainer on COVAX.
  • Trudeau would not comment when asked about what he knew about the allegations against retired General Jonathan Vance.
  • Trudeau also commented on the arrest and detention of an innocent Black man in Montreal, calling it “troubling” and said that there needs to be an investigation.
  • Anita Anand says that the entirety of the vaccine contracts are subject to non-disclousre clauses.
  • The reservist who stormed the gates of Rideau Hall plead guilty to eight charges, seven of those weapons-related. (He was initially up on 22 charges).
  • PornHub executives appeared before committee, and could not verify one of the stories of an alleged victim that has been circulating in the media.
  • The NDP made a pre-emptive election platform promise about encouraging provinces to nationalise long-term care facilities over ten years.
  • Kevin Carmichael looks at how Lightspeed POS’ pickup in activity could be an indicator of where future economic activity is headed.
  • Heather Scoffield valiantly tries to put the NDP’s early promise into a broader economic context as we wait for vaccines to ramp up.
  • Colby Cosh patiently explains the point of COVAX, and how this pandemic upended several assumptions of how a pandemic affects developing countries.
  • Chantal Hébert reads the Liberals for filth for their inability to properly communicate around the vaccine delays, which makes their rivals’ jobs easier.
  • My weekend column looks to debunk some of the false narratives being circulated about vaccine procurement, which only serves to give cover to premiers’ failures.

Odds and ends:

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