Roundup: Caution – plummeting oil prices

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Oil prices started plummeting Sunday night as a price war opened up in the midst of declining demand due to the COVID-19 outbreak, and this is going to have a huge impact in Canada, not only with Alberta and Saskatchewan, but most especially with Newfoundland and Labrador, whose government relies very heavily on resource revenues. Add to that, this is going to put even more pressure on Bill Morneau and the federal government when it comes to how to deal with reforming fiscal stabilization in the upcoming budget, particularly if it’s also going to mean any kind of rebate for previous years’ stabilization (as Jason Kenney in particular has been demanding, under the misleading term of “equalization rebate,” even though it’s no such thing).

This may also touch off a new round of blaming Justin Trudeau for Alberta’s woes, when the oil prices are going to make things so, so much more painful for the province as they budgeted a ludicrously high amount for oil revenues. One might suggest that it would be a good impetus for the province (and the federal government) to redouble efforts toward diversification and a “just transition” away from the oil economy in that province, because the hopes for “just one more boom” get even further away, or even for the province to finally reform the revenue side of its equation and finally implement a modest sales tax that would stabilize its finances – but I have a feeling that Kenney won’t even contemplate those things. Blaming Trudeau is too easy, and lying to the public is so much easier.

Speaking of lying to the public, as certain other political figures fill the op-ed pages with a bunch of bullshit about how Alberta is “treated like a colony” as the Buffalo Declaration did (and no, I won’t link to the egregious op-ed in question), here is a great thread from professor Melanee Thomas as to why that kind of comparison is not only wrong, but wrong to the point of being actively racist.

Good reads:

  • The government will be introducing a Criminal Code amendment to ban “conversion therapy” (and this will instigate a huge rift in the Conservative caucus).
  • At the request of the American government, Canada is evacuating its citizens from the cruise ship off the coast of California, to be taken to CFB Trenton for quarantine.
  • Briefing materials provided to Bill Morneau show that the areas of child care, education and housing affordability are top-of-mind for Canadians.
  • CSE’s Canadian Centre for Cyber Security is trying to develop homomorphic encryption to better protect government information.
  • AFN National Chief Perry Bellegarde says that he understands that the alliances Indigenous people need get harder when people are frustrated by blockades.
  • In light of COVID-19, businesses are looking to protect their supply chains from shutdowns related to infections.
  • There are concerns that MPs aren’t being given enough information to make proper decisions about the Centre Block renovations.
  • The Conservatives have laid out their budget wish list of spending cuts and “waste reduction” that mostly cites torqued examples.
  • Here’s an interview with rookie Conservative MP Eric Duncan on being the party’s first openly gay MP (emphasis on openly).
  • Former Ontario Cabinet minister Steven Del Duca won the Ontario Liberal leadership this weekend.
  • Jason Kirby looks at the economic moves by the Bank of Canada, and wonders if we are doomed to repeat the Great Recession’s trick of leveraging household debt.
  • Chantal Hébert makes note of the changing views of Quebeckers when it comes to dealing with Indigenous protests, 30 years after the Oka Crisis.
  • Susan Delacourt reminds the Conservative leadership hopefuls about when the Liberals tried to bring the Conservatives down in the minority years.

Odds and ends:

https://twitter.com/btaplatt/status/1236383346378276865

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