There is a lot of agitation around the Teck Frontier oilsands mine, with the Alberta government and their federal counterparts howling for it to be approved immediately, and environmentalists, and certain other parties (like the Bloc) demanding the federal permits be denied. The problem? That even if it were approved, the CEO says they may not be able to build it because oil prices are too low for it to actually make any money, so this could all be for naught.
Meanwhile, here is Andrew Leach with a thread on its economics, and pushing back on the rhetoric around its emissions profile, wherein Jason Kenney and others have misconstrued what the company has actually said in order to make the project look less emitting that its plans say it will be.
Since that study, the average barrel consumed in the US has gotten lighter and lower in sulphur. That number has almost certainly gone down. Perhaps Lindsay was referring to half the average oil sands barrel consumed in the US? That's plausible, but still a stretch.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) January 29, 2020
Okay, this is a good example of why precision matters. Here's Tech's PDF: https://t.co/6dY2HfE3el
It basically says that they are the median barrel in North America (lower emissions than half the barrels) and emissions half of the oil sands average.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) January 29, 2020
English matters. Teck actually said that emissions per barrel "will be approximately 1/2 the oil sands industry average and will have a lower carbon intensity than
about half of the oil currently refined in the United States." I.e. they're the median barrel, not 1/2 the avg. https://t.co/PLe41gXC6x— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) January 29, 2020
Teck has basically committed to being the median barrel, not half the average. They'll be among the lowest emissions oil sands facilities if they get built, but they're likely to be a bit above the NA average barrel in terms of GHG/bbl.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) January 29, 2020
I'll use California data because I have it to hand. It's not representative of the US, because it runs a heavier, higher sulphur barrel on average. But, for the purposes of this demo, it makes sense. Here's all the crude refined in California, by GHG intensity upstream. pic.twitter.com/Io5wZ1t8FB
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) January 30, 2020
Now, I don't have a good US average barrel, but I can drop WTI and Maya crudes on that graph for context. Frontier will be +/- the same as WTI. It will be close enough to the median barrel (60th percentile?) in California, and likely close to the average. Not half the average. pic.twitter.com/Ew7GRDY6kJ
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) January 30, 2020
Good reads:
- The Ways and Means motion on the New NAFTA has passed, and now the implementation bill has been tabled in the House of Commons.
- The government has chartered a flight to retrieve Canadians from quarantined zones in China, but if they’re infected, they won’t be able to board.
- The Chief Public Health Officer, Dr. Theresa Tam, says it could take up to a year for a coronavirus vaccine to roll out.
- Mona Fortier and Bill Morneau are looking at the ways in which Scotland and New Zealand are looking to build budgets around personal happiness.
- The panel looking into the broadcast landscape delivered their report, calling for more Canadian content on streaming services and an ad-free CBC.
- Senior NORAD commanders say their aging equipment can no longer detect Russian bombers in time to prevent them from launching missiles.
- The Conservatives won their Supply Day motion to call in the Auditor General on the infrastructure programme, which is mostly about frustrating the agenda.
- The number of restricted firearms registered in Canada rose by 24 percent in the first three years of the current government.
- Here is another look at the renovation process ongoing in Centre Block.
- Both Michael Chong and Candice Bergen have ruled out a leadership run, but John Williamson is now actively considering one.
- Aspiring narcissist Rick Peterson officially launched his leadership bid, and he thinks a flat tax and zero corporate tax is a winning ticket.
- In case you missed it, here is leadership hopeful Derek Sloan’s assertions about the “biological component” of being gay and conversion therapy.
- And of course, here is a deeper dive into how the social conservatives are trying to make their mark in the leadership contest.
- A Toronto lawyer throwing her hat in for the Green Party leadership is hoping to be the first black woman to lead a federal party.
- Justin Ling has lost all patience with the superficial conversation being had over LGBT issues in the Conservative leadership contest – Pride is not even the minimum.
Odds and ends:
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The economics and the science don’t matter. What drives votes are emotional matters like “optics” and “issue framing”. At this point the Liberals should issue a non-denial denial for Teck Frontier and just kick the can down the road, leaving Kenney to sweat and the Postmedia war room to churn out more fact-averse agitprop that becomes a tiresome din after awhile and will only alienate them further from the RoC.
In 10 years, what did Harper do for economic diversification? It’s not like the Liberals haven’t offered options for employment assistance and a transition to the renewable economy. They don’t want it, as evidenced by the yellow vest and Wexit tantrums, petro-propaganda being forced into K-12 curriculum, and sales of popular merchandise depicting Trudeau hanging from a noose. Some “economically anxious” Wexiteer posted a clip to social media that has since been reported and deleted: They called themselves a firearms enthusiast who posed no threat to others because they were only interested in shooting “paper targets.” The paper target in question was a cardboard cutout of Trudeau. And they wonder why their “plight” generates no sympathy?
Wilkinson is correct and so was Trudeau in one of his year-end interviews: Kenney is not serious about climate change. The Liberals therefore have more to gain by isolating the Conservatives on this issue and eating into the eco-progressive vote, than in pandering to Alberta for “national unity” purposes. #notallalbertans, I know, but the loud and irrational fist-pumpers will never be satisfied unless there’s a (Western) Canadian version of Scott Morrison in the PMO — and not a Liberal, least of all one named Trudeau — who sets the country on fire as long as it “creates jobs” (through what? Central planning? How do you stop automation, divestments, and a drop in global oil prices?).
Kenney and the federal Cons, whether it’s Scheer, MacKay, O’Toole, or a blue fence post operating as Harper’s mouthpiece, have no real ethos besides p!ssing off the Frenchies and tree-huggers, hating Trudeau, and owning the Libs. Trumpian performative outrage for bigly yuge ratings and riling up the base. Trudeau has given them enough with nothing in return. Time for the Unlivable Climate Party and their cult of swivel-eyed loons to enter rehab. You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him quit the drink.