It was another day of shocking revelations as Justin Trudeau held another press conference yesterday to confirm that intelligence from many sources – including Canada’s own – gave a strong indication that it was indeed a missile that brought down flight 752 outside of Tehran, though it may not have been intentional. He struck a very somber tone, and continued to call for Canada’s participation in the investigation – while Iran’s spokespeople are denying that it was a missile, and so far only limited access is being offered to Canadians (though they are apparently approving the necessary visas for consular access). It’s also important to note that Trudeau specifically referenced Canadian intelligence sources, because it’s less likely (historically speaking) that it would be manipulated for political purposes, than if we simply relied on American intelligence.

In our research, @StephanieCarvin and I found there is literally no past instance of politicization of intelligence in Canada. Our leaders simply don't do that, unlike in other countries.

If Trudeau says this, with appropriate caveats & caution, it must be taken very seriously. https://t.co/eoA8zcWEgx

— Thomas Juneau (@thomasjuneau) January 9, 2020

Another term cropped up several times yesterday, which was the call for a “credible” investigation – another important consideration as it is likely that Iran may be trying to obfuscate and obscure part of the investigation in order to ensure that they can avoid the culpability for the incident, though we are hearing that lessons learned from crashes like MH17 over Ukraine has helped investigators learn more when one side (Russia, in that case) is not cooperative – and Trudeau did note that he reached out to the prime minister of the Netherlands to learn more about how they dealt with the crash of MH17, as they were the lead investigators there. Maclean’s has a bit more here about investigations and what it may look like.

Meanwhile, Andrew Coyne glumly notes that there is little that Canada can actually do it if is proved that Iran shot down the plane (presumably deliberately as opposed to accidentally), in particular because we have outsourced our defence to the Americans for so long. Likewise, Matt Gurney goes into more detail about just how limited Canada’s options are when it comes to responding to the worst-case situation.

Good reads:

• Justin Trudeau has offered Australia more firefighters to help deal with the country’s raging bush fires.
• The RCMP have opened a criminal investigation after finding fuel-soaked “traps” along the Coastal Gas Link route that is the subject of First Nations protests.
• Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz says that even if the US and China come to a trade agreement, it may not help Canada undo the damage of trade uncertainty.
• The Bank of Canada is also seeking input from Canadians about who should be on the next $5 banknote, much as the new $10 has Viola Desmond on it.
• A National Post poll finds a significant percentage of Canadians want Prince Harry to be the next Governor General.
• MP Marilyn Gladu is officially in the Conservative leadership race.
• More rumours that Peter MacKay is “100 percent in” the leadership race.
• Here is a look at the debate within social conservative circles, who are feeling betrayed by past leaders (and who may look to Poilievre as their new saviour).
• Conservative MP Garnett Genuis was surveying his constituents about topics like abortion and Alberta separation.
• Former Newfoundland and Labrador lieutenant governor – and Mulroney-era Cabinet minister – John Crosbie’s health is declining.
• Chris Selley suggests that a little pugnaciousness from Pierre Poilievre could do wonders for the Conservatives after Scheer’s milquetoast performance.

Odds and ends:

Here is an update on the Prince Harry and Megan, Duchess of Sussex, situation.

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