We’ve been hearing a lot about the proposed Teck Frontier oilsands mine in northern Alberta lately, and demands by Jason Kenney and a number of Conservative MPs that its approval be fast-tracked as close to immediate as possible. Energy economist Andrew Leach has a few thoughts on the matter, particularly of how to reconcile Teck in the broader scope.
Maybe if we ignore the issue, that will be fine? This is how the JRP into the Teck Frontier oil sands mine dealt with oil demand forecasts and a world acting on climate change. #ableg 1/N pic.twitter.com/ckzawBUV1L
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) December 13, 2019
The IEA tests a number of scenarios, and they one which shows oil demand increasing to those levels is one where the world doesn't take aggressive action on climate change. They also model what happens if the world acts (Sust Dev Scenario) 3/N pic.twitter.com/yV74enx0sR
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) December 13, 2019
Using all the runs from energy systems models feeding into the IPCC 1.5C report, there are scenarios of a 2C world where oil demand grows until 2040 (although not to 110 MMbbl/d) but the median scenario doesn't hold that at all. For 1.5C scenarios, no model does. 5/N
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) December 13, 2019
That's certainly within the authority of the panel to adjudicate. It's also true that there is, "considerable uncertainty regarding forecasts for future oil
prices and […] about how Canada and other countries will address
greenhouse gas emissions targets in the future." 7/N— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) December 14, 2019
Let's jump next to some other aspects of the report. According to the panel summary, "Teck submitted that the Frontier project will be 'best in class' with respect to greenhouse gas emissions intensity. Teck's own numbers dispute that, as the panel acknowledges. 9/N
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) December 14, 2019
The panel goes on to cite Alberta's CCIR policy as a means to drive emissions intensity reductions, but then they make a really incomprehensible statement about AB policy. I don't know where this comes from. 11/N
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) December 14, 2019
The recommendations: "Develop [a GHG mgmt plan that] would include measures to demonstrate and measure how Teck will achieve emissions intensity “best-in-class” status." What now? This is the design of a new project. This is when a lot of this gets baked-in.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) December 14, 2019
"The panel accepts that Teck has committed to be a top quartile performer in oil sands GHG intensity and […] through the development and implementation of […] a detailed GHG plan […] and a continuous improvement approach, Teck should be able to realize its aspiration."
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) December 14, 2019
You'd think that maybe, after NEB's decision to ignore that a pipeline connecting the oil sands to a tanker loading terminal might have marine implications became a key point in the FCA quashing the TMX permit, this JRP would have taken issues of scope a bit more seriously.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) December 14, 2019
Good reads:
- Access to Information documents show that the government is concerned that the bill to restore status to some First Nations women is overbroad.
- It sounds like Harjit Sajjan is not keen to replace General Jonathan Vance as Chief of Defence Staff anytime soon.
- The next round of Federal Court challenges against the Trans Mountain expansion are being heard over the next three days.
- Not surprisingly, the Federal Privacy Commissioner finds political parties’ privacy policies to be lacking.
- The Canadian Judicial Council is putting out new guidelines for former judges when it comes to what they do once they retire from the bench.
- With Boris Johnson’s election in the UK and the near-certainty of Brexit going ahead, the question is now how a Canada-UK trade deal will go ahead.
- The COP25 climate conference wrapped up in Madrid, with no agreements on carbon markets or Article 6 on emissions trading.
- A jury in Montreal found a former SNC-Lavalin executive guilty of foreign bribery and corruption charges.
- Candice Bergen and Michelle Rempel are not ruling out a run for the leadership.
- Here’s a look at new Conservative MP Eric Melillo, who was elected at age 21.
- François Legault says he won’t stick around for a third or fourth term. Duly noted.
Odds and ends:
My latest video for Loonie Politics explains why it’ll be difficult for the next Conservative leader to find a message that will speak to the various factions in the party.
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Difficult for the next Conservative leader to find a message to the various factions of the party? First the party has to find a cogent platform that a leader it designates can support. Then the trick is to convince Canadians that the new iteration of the “conservative party” will have policies that Canadians can rely on to take the Nation into the rest of the century. I say good luck with that. Looking at all the possible contenders, the exercise will be a continuing failure. There will be no new vision coming out of this party.
They want Rona to run so she can present as the pretty, “moderate” face of the underlying fascist rot in caucus, and so they can make bad-faith attacks on Trudeau of being a chauvinistic bully and a fake feminist. That, and/or force him to step aside to give Freeland a better chance, who they will then attack with their own sexist smears a la Hillary Clinton.
If she doesn’t, I’m sure there’s a draft Jody team in the works — and I wouldn’t put it past her to jump in the race out of Scheer spite. Daddy promised her the top job, after all — and a bigger office.
Literally their only “uniting” vision is virulent hatred of all things Liberal and in particular, Trudeau. Remember Obama/Clinton derangement syndrome? GOP north.
OMG, Godwin’s Law applied in record time.
Mike Godwin himself said go ahead and invoke it if the jackboot fits. Lo and behold, it does.
https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2019/12/16/even-without-scheer-the-right-wing-values-of-the-conservatives-run-deep/
Being anti-abortion is a Nazi ideology? Plutôt le contraire, à mon avis.
Ever heard of Lebensborn? Whether that or forced eugenics, it’s all about controlling women. The correct answer is *choice.*
The state (and church) should have no business in the uteruses of the nation.
Let’s see if I can make sense of your argument.
It’s OK to call Conservatives “Nazis” because many are anti-abortion. Nazis were anti-abortion. Also, Nazis had programs to encourage Aryan births (Lebensborn).
So, anyone that tries to influence “the uteruses of the nation” is a Nazi.
Didn’t Justin just increase the Child Benefit program?
Right, because a social benefits program to help improve the quality of life for low-income families of ALL formulations and backgrounds is the same as exercising state ownership of women’s bodies and ***racial engineering*** by totalitarian fiat. Funny, I don’t seem to recall Justin imposing a blood-and-soil test requirement for the Canada Child Benefit.
Real mystery here why “conservatives” don’t meet with much respect. /fp
So, if I offered to ALL pregnant women in their last trimester a HUGE bonus for NOT having an abortion, you would not call me a Nazi, right?