With the days counting down until the Cabinet shuffle, the speculation is starting to get intense, and much of it is centred around the fate of Chrystia Freeland and whether Justin Trudeau will keep her in foreign affairs or move her to a more problem-solving domestic portfolio – particularly intergovernmental affairs, and capitalizing on her Alberta upbringing as the regional representative around the table (along with Jonathan Wilkinson as the Saskatchewan representative). One of the considerations is that nobody is quite sure who might take Freeland’s place in the foreign affairs portfolio, and the dominos go from there.

Another consideration is the fact that there will need to be some additional bench strength remaining for the committee chairs, as they will be a bigger battleground in a hung parliament than under a majority, given that the opposition will now hold the majority on them. That will essentially mean that amendments for bills will become a bigger consideration at the committee stage than they were in the previous parliament (to say nothing of what happens with amendments coming from the Senate, now that the Commons can insist on adopting them if the opposition all gangs up). There will be plenty of new dynamics that need to be managed – which is why the positions of House Leader and Whip will be all the more important in this new parliament.

Meanwhile, Heather Scoffield has been imagining mandate letters for incoming ministers, and those released over the weekend include the international trade minister, as well as the social development minister.

Good reads:

• While the current pan-Canadian climate framework won’t get us to our 2030 targets on its own, it is acknowledged as a first step and a pathway to greater compliance.
• Here is a discussion with some experts on alternatives to reforming equalization by means of things like expanding fiscal stabilisation programmes.
• A deputy governor of the Bank of Canada spoke at an event about the possibility of creating a digital currency as a “contingency plan” in the event of rapid changes.
• Yves-François Blanchet wants Jason Kenney to describe equalization in a truthful way. Good luck with that.
• Here is another profile of incoming NDP MP Mimilaaq Qaqqaq.
• Maxime Bernier was sounding like the voice of reason in Alberta when he told a gathering that threatening separation will only lead to worse outcomes.
• Ralph Goodale offers some thoughts on how the federal government can warm its relations with the prairie provinces.
• Susan Delacourt sees the relationship between Katie Telford in the PMO and Anne McGrath in the NDP leader’s office as keys to a working relationship.

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