Roundup: Underlying concerns amidst good numbers

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It was hard to miss all of the talk about the job numbers yesterday – particularly as pretty much every Liberal minister, MP and candidate started sharing pre-generated memes about how great the economy is doing under this government (with the caveat that there’s still more work to do). This, like news of much higher than expected GDP growth, are good headlines with some underlying weakness being masked, and as economist Trevor Tombe explains, those good numbers are masking some very real problems in Alberta.

The issue of young men in that province is one that I’m not sure enough levels of government are paying sufficient attention to, as the Alberta government seems to think that all that’s needed is for the oil patch to revive and it’s problem solved, but with world oil prices depressed and likely to remain so for the foreseeable future, that means the prospect for these young men – many of whom are under-educated because of the lure of high-paying oil patch jobs – are not going to be good in the shorter term. That’s additionally a problem when you have a government that feeds the people a diet of lies and snake oil to keep them angry at imaginary reasons why they’re being kept down (currently Justin Trudeau), because angry young men can be a dangerous thing if allowed to fester. And for the federal government’s part, I wonder just how much their retraining programming is penetrating given that jobs they could be retraining for couldn’t necessarily match the promised paydays of oil jobs in a boom – but that becomes a problem of waiting for the next boom (where the money will get pissed away, like it does every time no matter how often they promise that this time it will be different – really!).

Some of this will come up in the election – not just the lies that Kenney and company are pushing, but the NDP and Greens are trying to make some hay here, as both want to retrain these workers for the “green economy” in some vague way, while the Greens in particular think they could put them to work capping old orphan wells as both an environmental and job-creation measure, but it’s also one that is both expensive, and if the government just starts doing this on its own, it essentially lets the industry off the hook and demonstrates that the “polluter pays” principle is for naught. Add to that, the promises of green jobs retraining falls back to the issue of some of them waiting on the promises of the bigger paydays in a future oil boom, so there is no guarantee that green jobs will be attractive to this cohort. Nevertheless, it’s good that there are at least some ideas, and we should ensure that it’s something that does get discussed during the election.

Good reads:

  • Justin Trudeau has agreed to participate in a debate on TVA, but still hasn’t given a formal response to either Maclean’s or the Munk Debate (but it’s looking dubious).
  • Canada has requested a meeting with China at the WTO over the canola issue, which is an escalation of the issue.
  • The Canadian Human Rights Tribunal is ordering the government to pay compensation to Indigenous children affected by social services underfunding.
  • Here is a look at the possible reasons why the government didn’t oppose the leaves to appeal to the Federal Court of Appeal on Trans Mountain.
  • The federal government is planning to make changes to how it defines shared custody, which will have tax and Canada Child Benefit implications.
  • The pharmaceutical industry in Canada is taking the government to court over its overhaul of the Patented Medicines Price Review Board.
  • An anti-abortion group is recruiting and training volunteers to canvas 50 ridings in the election, but insists there’s no collusion with the Conservatives.
  • The clip circulating in social media that takes Trudeau joking about the media bailout at the Press Gallery Dinner is an example of disinformation campaigns.
  • Here’s a walk through Justin Trudeau’s latest campaign ad.
  • Andrew Scheer promises cyber-security action including creating a Canada Cyber-Safe™ Brand for digital products, which would simply be false security.
  • Conservatives say they are finalizing the process for dealing with sexual misconduct by candidates, following last year’s allegations against Rick Dykstra.
  • Jagmeet Singh says that the attempt to have a gender-balanced slate of candidates is slowing the process in some parts of the country.
  • The Global Affairs’ “Rapid Response Mechanism” team which tracks inauthentic social media accounts recorded a spike of such accounts in the Alberta election.
  • Departing Liberal MP Rodger Cuzner writes about his regrets about voting against same-sex marriage, and the trade-offs in trying to be a good MP.
  • Chantal Hébert surveys the political landscape in advance of the writs being drawn up, particularly as the NDP and Greens battle each other.
  • Chris Selley laments that the prime minister declining to attend certain election debates merely fuels cynics about the whole commission process.
  • Kevin Carmichael explores the trend of the world turning away from free trade and back toward managed trade, in part because of competitive forces.
  • My weekend column looks at what Elizabeth May proposes for a climate change “war Cabinet,” and calls it out for what it really is.

Odds and ends:

In light of the resignation of Boris Johnson’s brother Jo in Westminster, here’s a look at other political sibling acts.

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7 thoughts on “Roundup: Underlying concerns amidst good numbers”

  1. Some of the problems in Alberta are due to technology advances, where automation and larger, capital intensive equipment is displacing jobs.
    The polluter pays principle is all but gone in AB, especially during a depressed oil market, which would lead to less production and more layoffs. The biggest one is yet to come, too – The Tar Sands cleanup.
    The NDP advocates refitting existing buildings, which keeps energy from leaving by the back door. This would involve retraining a workforce, but doesn’t require a lot of formal education. Construction trades aren’t subject to a lot of automation yet either. The upside of this is that homeowners would likely spend the savings anyway, which would stimulate the economy even further.
    Let’s not forget, too that the population of Alberta amounts to around 4 million souls, so while unemployment is serious locally, it isn’t much in terms of actual numbers.

  2. I think it’s about time that the media and the rest of us stop referring to conservative religion driven people in Canada as “anti abortionists” and start calling them what they really are….anti choice. A much better name because it connotes their lack of respect for the law, namely the Charter of Rights and Freedoms.

    • Wayne Underhill,

      There is no Charter right to abortion; in fact, there is no federal law governing abortion. It is incorrect, therefore, to state that pro-life proponents have no respect for the law in general, or the Charter in particular.

      • I disagree with your premise. Although there is no specific law that condones abortion or denys the practice the Charter gives the right of an individual the freedom of action to decide for oneself.
        The legislation for instance that was passed regarding the right to die with dignity did not abrogate the freedom of a person to end one’s life but allowed for a process to take place where an abettor was protected by a law and the key words are with dignity. You say pro life, I say anti choice, I also say that if pro lifers don’t want to avail themselves of abortion services or assisted death, then they have the choice. Logically then, those who would like to have an abortion or die with dignity have that choice. What galls me is that our government that is an institution for the people and is by law ruled by a doctrine of separation of church and state still finds that the church is allowed to try and strip away the rights of individuals who may have a differing life ethic. Until we free ourselves from the influence of religion in the development of laws for the whole we will continue to have this debate.

        • Thanks for elaborating on your position.

          I don’t mind the term “anti-choice” for “pro-life”.

          My disagreement, however, was with the contention that anti-choicers are necessarily anti-Charter or anti-law.

          I also disagree, though I don’t think this was your position, that legislation (say limiting abortion in late terms) could not be made Charter-compliant.

  3. Sounds like Hillary’s woes with the angry West Virginia “clean coal” voters all over again. A dual, and competing, existential crisis: the survival of a dying industry and “way of life” in tough or transitory economic times, and the survival of the ecosystem itself. Trump whipped them up into a frenzy and made promises he knew he couldn’t keep (or at least his handlers knew, I don’t think Trump knows or cares about anything beyond 140 characters and his TV ratings), but the denial is still strong in these ones. They’re frustrated, they’re broke, they’re armed to the teeth, and they’re lashing out in the worst and most unthinkable ways. Why? They feel *emasculated*.

    Now their equivalents in the oil patch have resorted to lashing out against (mostly female) climate activists and politicians in Canada as well. I expect to see the new Star article about Catherine McKenna needing round-the-clock security in the next Round-up post. Horrifying what Kenney’s war room and his federal partners in slime have riled up for cynical gain.

    But along with McKenna, Berman and the young Thunberg, I would include Trudeau in that mix as a target of “male misogyny” (aka homophobia). The petro-populist PP problem Cons have been relentlessly attacking him as effeminate for years, and have only amped up those attacks since he correctly pointed out the gender-violence problems endemic to so-called “man camps.” Not long afterwards, that yellow vest outburst appeared, and Scheer and his cohorts were all too happy to lend them support. Go look at their social media profiles or just browse the “Yellow Vest Canada Exposed” account on Twitter that showcases what is really only a fraction of what goes on there. It’s a terrorist movement and should be labeled as such. They even put targets on his KIDS.

    New research confirms a link between misogyny/homophobia/toxic masculinity and climate denialism. In short: it’s not only about jobs and it’s not only about a lingering grudge against Trudeau père and the NEP. There’s a psychological vulnerabiilty here that power-hungry politicians and deep-pocketed fossil fuel execs are more than happy to exploit. Kenney’s Petromedia war room and Hamish Scheer’s Unethical Oil trollbot farm (from Petrograd?) are steadily and stochastically building Canada’s own, “Oil Qaeda.”

    https://newrepublic.com/article/154879/misogyny-climate-deniers
    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/men-resist-green-behavior-as-unmanly/

    There’s a reason why “economic anxiety” has become a euphemism for what amounts to a culture war. There’s a testosterone overflow with nowhere to channel it and things are going to get ugly. I would say it already has.

  4. Dale, will we see a Roundup analysis of the Star article on Catherine McKenna facing threats and requiring security?

    There’s a link between misogyny and climate denialism that is becoming impossible to ignore. Partisans will want to deny or deflect (and I already see this gaslighting, whataboutery and bothsiderism going on), but it is ENTIRELY on the Conservative side. Ties in well with today’s post about the oil patch and how similar of a comparison could be made between the “clean coal” voters in WV and their backlash to Hillary Clinton. Female politicians and activists in Canada face abhorrent levels of abuse, especially if their cause is related to the environment and/or if they are women of visible minority status.

    I would even say that Trudeau himself is a victim of misogynistic abuse. Male misogyny is homophobia. TVO recently aired an entire segment about why Trudeau cries so much. Kenney’s Kudatah Klan and their federal and inter-provincial cohorts in Harper’s hive of Rebel scum and villainy have been smearing him as effeminate for years. It only dialed up when he correctly pointed out the gendered violence in so-called man camps. They have no policies. All they have is hate. And Scheer has the gall to run an ad accusing Trudeau of personal attacks?

    Now I just found out a group of Scheer supporters heckled Trudeau the other day at a campaign event in Owen Sound where they shouted vulgar things about Sophie. Last year there were protesters in Alberta who held up signs and chanted awful things about Margaret. I’m sure you’re familiar with the things the yellow vests post on social media and chant at their rallies. They even go after his kids. And Scheer was more than happy to lend them support.

    This election will not end well, no matter the outcome of the seat distribution or who makes the throne speech or forms a coalition or whatever. A tipping point has been reached in Canada and it’s only going to get worse. Thanks a lot, Hamish. Thanks a lot, Steve.

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