Andrew Scheer made a defensive manoeuvre yesterday by sending letters to each of the premiers promising that he wouldn’t cut health or social transfers if he formed government – his way of heading off attacks from Justin Trudeau that are trying to paint Scheer with the same brush as Doug Ford, as Ford continues to make ill-considered cuts across Ontario without regard for logic or reason (while, oddly enough, his government’s spending continues to increase). There is an added bit of significance to this in that Ford has spent the past year trying to sell the message that Ontario’s books are such a basket case that the province is in the road to bankruptcy – which is a complete and total fabrication. While yes, Ontario does have a high debt-to-GDP ratio, we also have to remember that the previous government was borrowing money where interest rates are below the rate of inflation – essentially they are getting free money that they could use to invest in the province.
Enter Kevin Carmichael at the Financial Post, who wrote a must-read contemplation of the state of the federal books yesterday. It’s an adult conversation about the actual state of our finances – contrary to Scheer, our books are in great shape and the deficit is miniscule, and contrary to Trudeau and Bill Morneau, the deficits are coming in smaller than projected and growth is greater than projected and with no new increases in spending, we could be back in surplus before the 2023 election (thought that is always this government’s problem). And with that in mind, he poses the question – do we need to sock away surpluses in anticipation of a future recession even though we already have the capacity to deal with it, or do we spend our current capacity on something that would have lasting changes for our economy, like national childcare? It’s the kind of grown-up conversation that we should be having, but we’re not as parties snipe at one another over who is more “divisive.”
Right. But unless you raise taxes or cut many billions of current spending, you couldn't both return to surplus (recession reserve) and pay the upfront cost of a national childcare program in the short term. https://t.co/Oscp1RA9Ob
— Kevin Carmichael (@CarmichaelKevin) August 1, 2019
Definitely. But you can't cover the upfront cost of a national daycare program AND balance the budget in the short term, unless you raise taxes or cut current spending, which neither of the two main parties appear willing to do. https://t.co/UWtBK3piqV
— Kevin Carmichael (@CarmichaelKevin) August 1, 2019
I agree with @CarmichaelKevin that investing a quality child care system is just about the best long-term fiscal planning decision government can make. It reliably boosts growth, boosts revenues, and tackles a central equity problem. https://t.co/5lVtoaTrRT
— Rob Gillezeau (@robgillezeau) August 1, 2019
My only caveat re: the fiscal story in the article is that a Martin sized, $1B / year plan isn't enough to put us on a path to a national system even if it were income tested. The feds would need to put more on the table and certainly could afford to.
— Rob Gillezeau (@robgillezeau) August 1, 2019
A second caveat: while spaces certainly matter, a federal plan like those in Quebec and BC also should concern itself with affordability.
— Rob Gillezeau (@robgillezeau) August 1, 2019
https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1157119930434609153
Good reads:
- In Iqaluit, Justin Trudeau announced the creation of a marine protected area in the far north that will see the government exceed their promise for protected coastlines.
- Trudeau also pledged that Canadians will have access to pharmaceuticals in the face of American plans to buy from Canada and endangering our supplies.
- Ralph Goodale says that the Five Eyes partners have come to an agreement about keeping 5G networks free of government control.
- The new pardon system for simple cannabis possession convictions is now up and running (and those calling for expungements don’t seem to grasp those logistics).
- The head of the Canadian Infrastructure Bank pushes back against comments that the bank is too slow to roll out funds, or that it’s too politically controlled.
- The Department of National Defence is asking scientists for ideas on how to clean up space junk orbiting the Earth, as it poses a hazard to other satellites.
- Here’s a lengthy explanation about why Service Canada doesn’t issue new SINs after a massive data breach.
- There is some drama at Equal Voice where three racialized staffers were fired (but some of the dispute seems to involve “flexible work” of streaming TV at the office).
- The Star Phoenix has an exit interview with Senator Raynell Andreychuk as she reaches mandatory retirement.
- Here’s a look at how the Green Party is trying to up their campaign game.
- The New Brunswick NDP have to restart their leadership process after the lone declared candidate couldn’t pass party vetting. Oof.
- Here’s an exploration of why it’s so difficult to buy an electric vehicle in Alberta.
- Oilsands CEOs are taking out full-page ads in national newspapers ahead of the election – but they’re not being partisan!
- James Bowden and Lyle Skinner look at Dwight Ball’s abuse of caretaker conventions in Newfoundland and Labrador post-election.
- Matt Gurney laments the state of our Navy as problems and complications multiply in the Persian Gulf.
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Some Americans I met on holiday were astounded that Canadians have cradle to grave health care and families receive child benefits from the Federal government. One visiter calculated that if he added up the cost of his family health care with no deductible and took into consideration the child benefit his tax bill would be about the same as in Canada.