A couple of weeks ago, Paul Wells did one of his CPAC interviews with Elizabeth May, the transcript of which is now available, and she talked a lot about how she thinks Canada can transition to a cleaner economy, and said a bunch of things about the oil and gas industry as part of that. The problem, of course, was that she was wrong about pretty much all of it, as energy economist Andrew Leach demonstrates.
Second, she talks as though the current gov't doesn't use CEPA. That's full-on crap. The Clean Fuel Standard, for which the government has been getting all kinds of flack lately, is enabled under CEPA https://t.co/Nq10Rx8m8Q
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) July 16, 2019
Now, of course, @ElizabethMay is, "not going to say they’ve done absolutely nothing," on climate. For the love of Pete. They've literally imposed a national carbon price, fought court battles over it, developed a national CFS, backstopped a rapid coal phase out, etc.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) July 16, 2019
Next, she talks about Western Canada. We could, she says, just supply the Western Canadian market. Okay, we can and do. Western Canada refinery demand is about 600k bbl/d if you count NWR, and we produce over 4 million. What of the rest? What of Ontario and Montreal?
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) July 16, 2019
"In the meantime, over time, bitumen can become the feedstock for a petrochemical industry instead of burning it." What? How many new petrochem plants are we building? Because our current pet chem industry isn't using bitumen except insofar as we're using upgrading byproducts.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) July 16, 2019
"A 60 per cent reduction by 2030 is doable." In sales? 2 million light vehicles were sold in Canada in 2018, of which 44k were EV's (using @ElectronComm sales data). To get to 60% sales in 2030, you'd need a 30+% CAGR in EV sales with no increase in overall vehicle sales.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) July 16, 2019
Okay, adding one more. In the interview, @ElizabethMay characterizes our large emitters as, "basically coal-fired electricity plants and cement," which is highly inaccurate. Those two sectors make up 23% of our large industrial emissions in the most recent data.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) July 17, 2019
Leach, meanwhile, also takes Jason Kenney’s rhetoric about carbon pricing to task in this Policy Options piece, and lays out the danger of that rhetoric, which has a high probability of blowing up in Kenney’s face. And as a bonus, he proposed a tool for conservatives to check their policy instincts against.
Someone should get the Alberta Ministry of Environment and Parks a Trudeau emulator. Whenever they are considering a policy position, they could test whether they'd still like it if Trudeau said it. Here, let me give you an example… 1/n
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) July 16, 2019
Trudeau bot: while the cuts may seem significant, new technologies are just around the corner that will enable emissions-free natural gas.
Nixon staff: Wait, those are just pilots and they are not at scale. Do you know how much gas the oil sands uses? Do you have any clue? 3/
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) July 16, 2019
With timely check-ins with the Trudeau bot, staff at Alberta Environment and Parks could avoid inadvertent missteps as they would be hearing the same words, but from a voice they don't trust. It would be a great tool. Make it so.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) July 16, 2019
Good reads:
- With Trump increasing Buy America restrictions, here’s how it could affect Canadian industry, particularly steel.
- The government awarded $1 billion in ship maintenance contracts to Davie Shipyard and Seaspan, with another contract on the way for Irving.
- Marie-Claude Bibeau says that compensation for dairy farmers will be outlined before the writs are drawn up.
- Canada has serious concerns about NATO ally Turkey buying weapons systems from the Russians.
- CSE and CSIS are concerned about foreign agents embedding themselves in Canadian companies, given that economic espionage is a huge threat to Canada.
- Ontario’s cuts to legal aid are going to cause more delays with the Immigration and Refugee Board, as they try to pressure the federal government to cover those costs.
- Hasan Diab wants the government to publicly release the report they commissioned on his extradition. (Lametti’s office says it’s in translation and will be released soon).
- Members of the Attawapiskat First Nation want the Canadian Forces’ DART to come in with their clean water technology as they declare a state of emergency.
- Jagmeet Singh is spending the week touring Quebec, hoping to shore up support in an attempt to stave off an electoral wipeout in the province.
- Shannon Proudfoot has an interesting exploration of class and the denial thereof in Canada (as political parties all vie for the mythical Middle Class™ votes).
- James Bowden explains why the prime minister needs to appoint a new lieutenant governor for Saskatchewan post-haste.
- Heather Scoffield parses the latest StatsCan data on economic mobility.
- Kevin Carmichael explains the significance of the Bank of Canada moving to take over overnight lending in this country.
- Chris Selley makes the case that it’s finally time for governments to stop subsidizing Bombardier.
- My column gives some thought as to what would have to give if MPs ended up cancelling Friday sittings and not redistributing the hours.
Odds and ends:
Programming note: I’m going to be away for the next week, so blogging will be pretty much non-existent for the duration. Most of my other releases – columns, and content for Patreon subscribers – should be largely unaffected. See you upon my return!
Want more Routine Proceedings? Become a patron and get exclusive new content.