Andrew Scheer unveiled his long-awaited environmental plan yesterday, citing that it was a “real plan” because it was longer than the other parties’…but that was about it. After he listed a bunch of lies about the current Liberal plan, Scheer kept saying that carbon pricing didn’t do anything, which is both factually incorrect (as proven by peer-reviewed work), but it also completely ignores that the current plan hasn’t had a chance to sufficiently bend the curve. By removing carbon pricing from the market and instead forcing companies who exceed their emissions to caps, it is actually even less of a market-based plan than the Liberals’ plan, and there are no specifics in how any of it would work. Promising technological solutions without price signals to spur their development is just like counting on magic to lower emissions. It’s also like Scheer’s complete lie that this plan won’t cost Canadians – it will cost them, but those costs will be passed onto them and hidden, whereas the carbon price is transparent so that people can make better choices. Scheer also claims that his plan would have the best chance of meeting the Paris targets – without actually having targets, or articulating how they would be achieved. It’s replete with a bunch of boutique tax credits that are inefficient, and is generally a bunch of language that does very little. How he claims this is a “real plan” is somewhat of a farce.
The Conservative climate plan is not really a plan at all. We’re left to wonder how much pollution it would cut, how close it would take us toward our pollution reduction target, and how much it would cost. https://t.co/Be9fS5GlPm #cdnpoli
— Clean Energy Canada (@cleanenergycan) June 19, 2019
Odd. The new CPC enviro document strongly and repeatedly condemns the ‘special deals’ given to large emitters under the current govt’s plan. Yet simultaneously commits to *doing the same thing*. (which is good, but the transparent hypocrisy is just … lazy.) pic.twitter.com/i4HM4Pbblg
— Trevor Tombe (@trevortombe) June 20, 2019
@AndrewScheer claims that his policy will not exempt emissions but "Green Investment Standards" will, one assumes, be pro-rated to output (i.e a large facility like Syncrude's oil sands operations at 11Mt would not face the same reduction requirement as MEG at 0.8Mt) 2/N
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) June 19, 2019
The mere fact that this is not detailed in the "Real Plan" tells you something. Imperial Oil's Kearl Plant's 2017 emissions were 2,719,039 tonnes. What's Scheer's plan going to cost them? What investments will count? Will they get credit for reductions due to PFT process? Etc.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) June 19, 2019
Second thing that is odd: Conservative plan talks about company emissions, while all reporting is currently done at the facility level. The policy states that, "companies will be required to invest a set amount for every tonne
of greenhouse gas they emit above
the limit."— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) June 19, 2019
The Plan would, "require all companies with
facilities falling under this
regulation to report on their
emissions." So, does that mean I need to report at the company level as well as at the facility level? Does Imperial now have to report all its small battery emissions too?— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) June 19, 2019
But, we're also told that there will be no credit for early action. "We will establish an auditing function to ensure
that emitters are complying
with regulations and that
investments are incremental." So, I know I'm going to have to do something new, but I don't know what.— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) June 19, 2019
What about new facilities? What will standards be? How much do I have to invest per tonne that I'm over? If I'm going to build now, does it make sense to build with the best tech, or to wait to get credit for that later? Will standards be product-based or industry? Not clear.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) June 19, 2019
Again, let's use a specific application like a new low/no-bleed pneumatic device. The emissions reduction would be relative to what device it was replacing. So, does that device have to be certified too? Do you just deem an emissions reduction? What? My funders want to know.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) June 19, 2019
So, in summary, we have no idea what facility- or company-level standards will be, how investments translate into deemed emissions reductions, how new technology has value under this plan, or how the certification process will work.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) June 19, 2019
And then there’s the global component, where Scheer says that Canada should be lowering global emissions by exporting “cleaner” Canadian energy like LNG – err, except that would grow Canadian emissions, and yet he wants us to get credits for those exports. And he says that China should use Canadian carbon capture and storage technology – except it’s hugely expensive, and is not really feasible unless you’re pricing carbon (not to mention that if the storage is not done properly, it can simply all be for naught). And Canada still has some of the highest per-capita emissions, which Scheer conveniently ignores in his arguments.
Here's the same set of countries with per capita emissions. I made this chart in ~2 mins using public OECD data. Message here = 'gee, Canada has a real role to play'. What you choose to measure matters. pic.twitter.com/BY2hLPMGF0
— Dr. J Robson (@JenniferRobson8) June 20, 2019
Under the Paris Agreement, there are mechanisms for exactly this: Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes, or ITMOs, which allow countries to jointly agree to transfer emissions reduction credits between them. Read more here: https://t.co/2zLqzENOJo
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) June 20, 2019
What @AndrewScheer is on about is that it's going to be hard for Canada to claim credit for shipping LNG offshore based on an argument that it displaces higher-emissions sources from elsewhere. Commodity sales have, typically, been excluded from these types of credit programs.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) June 20, 2019
If the total global LNG market is a "first to the market" story, with similar total market size, but different participants, the case for a big emissions reduction due to Canadian vs other LNG is weak. Argument will turn on whether Cdn LNG is incremental supply or not.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) June 20, 2019
Amidst this, Scheer’s apologists are saying “it’s good that they’re admitting that climate change is real!” or “Look at how far the Conservatives have come since 2008!” Except that’s all spin. They can say they believe in climate change, but they also say that Canada’s contribution is so small that we shouldn’t do anything about it. Scheer and others tried to burnish themselves with the environmental reputations of previous conservative governments, except the old Conservative party is dead, and the current one is engaging in some egregious political necrophilia to cover for their own weakness. That those apologists could say these things with a straight face on television is astounding.
https://twitter.com/robert_hiltz/status/1141470545130729473
How do you know this? Without knowing what standards will be enforced on firms or what new investments will be required to meet those standards? Perhaps you can fill us in? Will it apply in NB, AB, ON, SK, QC and BC? If not, what will it add that convinces you? https://t.co/I5vgSp6rYr
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) June 20, 2019
Good reads:
- The House of Commons is going to rise today, with a few last bills being rushed through.
- Bill Morneau addressed a business crowd in Calgary saying he understands the anxiety the province feels over the shift to a low-carbon economy.
- The CEO of Trans Mountain says that they will likely begin construction in September, with a completion date of mid-2022.
- Mexico has ratified the New NAFTA, and Canada could be next.
- At the Senate, the Northwest Territories resource regulatory bill, the pot pardons bill, and the military law and family law bills have all passed.
- With Bill C-59 on national security laws now passed, the government says they should have a fix for the no-fly list problems by 2020.
- With the UNDRIP bill set to die in the Senate, Senator Peter Harder surprisingly announced that the government would champion it during the election.
- The Parliamentary Budget Officer has projected the costs of the tax write-off measures the government implemented to counter Trump tax cuts in the US.
- Dené groups are crying foul that an agreement is being delayed, but the government says they need to consult other Indigenous groups objecting to the agreement.
- The UN says that Canada resettled more refugees than any other country last year.
- Quebec environmentalist Steve Guilbeaut is apparently planning to run for the Liberals in Montreal this fall.
- Andrew Scheer and other Conservatives are rallying around Michael Cooper, believing that he didn’t make the “goat herder cultures” remark.
- Brian Pallister has called an election in Manitoba for September 10th(which will likely have an impact on the volunteers parties will rely on for the federal election).
- Kady O’Malley points to the ambiguities in election law around the advertising exclusions near polling stations, and how Elections Canada is trying to deal with it.
- Andrew Coyne charts the treacherous middle ground the Liberals find themselves in with both approving TMX, and trying to be environmental champions.
- Susan Delacourt contrasts how Joyce Murray came to favour TMX, while Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott turned against it.
- Colby Cosh suggests we take a grain of salt when it comes to reports that decry the onslaught of false news playing a role in the coming election.
Odds and ends:
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Don’t worry about fake news? The past six months has been nothing but fake news! Weak Andy knows he doesn’t have to be serious about an issue his base thinks is fake news. Fake news damaged his opponent’s reputation enough that he figures he can just coast through on a technicality and not have to offer any serious policies other than, I don’t know, buck-a-beer? Buck-a-holy-whine. Aided and abetted, of course, by the fake news hot take corporate pundit class that even Justin has said, they never wanted him to have the job anyway. Obviously they don’t. They’re jealous of his success.
Oh, and as for the two bullies who started that fake news, of course they’re anti-pipeline now. They’re anti-everything that Justin supports because they’re aboard the anti-Justin bandwagon out of spite. If Justin did a campaign stop at a library, they’d be against literacy. If Justin had a meeting in his office with Marlo Thomas, they’d be in favor of childhood cancer. I’m waiting for the good doctor to turn anti-vaxer because Justin says to get your flu shot.
Quite frankly, I’m sick of them both. They sold out their party and possibly the country, and ruined a good man’s reputation and career, not for thirty pieces of silver but fifteen minutes of infamy. The ad-hominem animosity against this man that has defined Canadian politics for the past four years — fifty years, give or take, if you take into account the “sins of the father” derangement syndrome — is absolutely pathetic. Trudeau deserves better than these petty, abusive bullies, and Canada deserves better than this politics of personal destruction. “Hate, American Style.”