Roundup: A hung parliament in PEI

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The PEI election did not result in a Green Party majority, because shockingly, the polls were wrong. It did result in a hung parliament, which has never happened before in that province, and yet every single media outlet and then the prime minister himself declared that the progressive conservatives had won a minority. Err, except we don’t know the composition of the next government yet because the lieutenant governor hasn’t invited anyone to form government, and the seat distribution – 12 PC, 8 Green, 6 Liberal – is one where it’s not actually clear that the PCs will form government, as a Green-Liberal coalition remains more than possible. Which isn’t to say that it will happen, but there is a way in which government formation works in a Westminster system, and simply winning the most seats, even if you don’t win a majority, doesn’t mean that you get a chance to form government. It doesn’t work that way! And it would be really great if the media would stop creating this false sense that it works that way, because it doesn’t. And even if the PCs do form government, they will need one of the other parties to prop them up, and that will have a significant effect on the shape of that government. Pre-empting the lieutenant governor’s call simply invites confusion, which we should probably be avoiding.

Happily, the province’s electoral reform referendum also went down in defeat (and this is another place where the urban-rural split will likely be evident). Hopefully this means that the advocates will shut up about it because they keep losing. I know they won’t – they’re convinced that people just don’t understand or are too stupid to realise that PR is so good for them (it’s not), but you would hope that the constant defeats would be some kind of dissuasion.

Good reads:

  • Chrystia Freeland had a tough time convincing international colleagues about the threat of white supremacy and Islamophobia in a recent international communiqué.
  • The currently proposed regulations for heavy emitters could mean that coal fired electricity plants may get an easier ride than other renewables.
  • An emissions study suggests that current estimates of how much GHGs that the oilsands are producing could be lower than they actually are.
  • The Royal Canadian Mint unveiled their commemorative Loonie about the partial decriminalistion of homosexuality in 1969.
  • CRA is holding an online public consultation about how people feel about them.
  • A report on First Nations policing was just released that shows that current models are failing Indigenous communities.
  • The RCMP is looking at hiring civilian specialists like accountants and data geeks to help investigate organized crime, but there is resistance in the ranks.
  • The Philippines is demanding that Canada take back those containers of garbage dumped on their shores within the week.
  • Here’s a look at Jim Balsillie’s crusade to reform government innovation and get Canada’s IP laws in better shape, lest foreign firms continue to consume them.
  • Scott Moe is demanding easier access to cash advances for canola farmers impacted by China’s current blockade of shipments.
  • Kady O’Malley’s Process Nerd column looks at what’s left on committee agendas as we enter the final major stretch of the current Parliament.
  • In advance of today’s Bank of Canada rate decision, Kevin Carmichael looks at how the Bank’s conception of the neutral rate of interest may be changing.
  • Heather Scoffield recounts the PBO’s report that Canada’s wealthy did not flee when their taxes were increased – but notes income disparity is not getting any better.
  • My column wonders if Jason Kenney will take a few pages from Doug Ford’s “open for business” play book and actually make Alberta a riskier place to invest.

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5 thoughts on “Roundup: A hung parliament in PEI”

  1. A quick look at statistics on unemployment on reserves is very illuminating. Rates of unemployment range on average between 60 and 75%. Many reserves have no businesses or industries therefore most of the money they receive is spent off reserve.
    A reserve in northwestern Alberta that I researched because it lay next to a hamlet in which I was raised showed an unemployment rat in the high seventies, right where it was 60 years ago. The model of sending checks to First Nations has and does not work. It gives no incentive to develop commerce on native lands. Those who have broken away from the past and created opportunities like the Sto Lo in the Fraser valley and others have a base with which to proceed. The Federal government gives First Nations over 10 billion dollars per year with no end in sight. Policies must change. Don’t look to the Conservative Party. The NDP have shown no propensity to change from the status quo and the Greens have no established policy at all.

  3. “…it’s not actually clear that the PCs will form government, as a Green-Liberal coalition remains more than possible.”

    I would say there is zero chance of a Green-Liberal coalition. The election on April 23 was a ‘change election’ and the Liberals were the prime target of the voters’ ire. From that perspective alone, it would make no sense for the Greens to invite the Liberals into bed. As well, a government supported by 8 Green and 6 Liberal members would constitute the barest of majorities, and thus present little likelihood of stability. Given the friendliness between the leaders of the Greens and the Conservatives, it seems most likely that the Lieutenant Governor will ask the Conservatives to form a government, which they could well do through a supply and confidence agreement with the Greens.

  4. Do you think part of the issue with the idea of the PCs winning the election in PEI could be an emerging constitutional convention that only the party that forms the most seats has the right to form government, and if they can’t then the legislature must be dissolved?

    You no doubt remember the fury that erupted in many parts of the country, particularly here in Alberta, when it seemed that Stephen Harper would be deposed by a coalition government led by Stéphane Dion. The view was, that since Harper had won the most seats in the then-recent election, he was the only one who had the right to form government. The Governor General’s inviting Dion to form a government would be legal according to the written Constitution, but constitutional convention would consider this illegitimate.

    • That’s not a constitutional convention, nor should it be, because it goes against the basic constitutional conventions associated with Responsible Government (which are not part of the written constitution – they’re in the preamble about having a system similar to the UK). Harper appealed to populist sentiment to consider any potential coalition *that only would have happened if his government was defeated in a confidence vote* to be illegitimate because it serves populists to try and short-circuit the rules when it suits them. If anything is an emerging convention in Canada, it’s that governors general and lieutenant governors are unlikely to call another election within six months of the previous one, which makes it all the more important for some parliamentary formation to attempt to find confidence.

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