With the big climate conference about to get underway, and the current oil price crisis in Alberta – along with the demands by the Conservatives to withdraw Bill C-69, there’s a lot of interesting things going on if we wanted to actually talk policy and not just hurling insults and blaming Justin Trudeau for everything wrong in this world. So with that in mind, here’s Andrew Leach with a fascinating thread on the oil sands, pipelines, climate commitments, and Bill C-69.
You hear a lot of people having two separate conversations – one about oil demand (it's going up, it's going to be high forever, etc) and climate change (sure, we're committed to action) but never the two discussions shall meet. They need to meet.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) December 6, 2018
However, that's the wrong place for that test to be, and that really makes it look like pipelines are being singled out for treatment that is not applied to the rest of the economy. Climate change policy is market and supply risk, and that's where it should be in C69.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) December 6, 2018
Worried that you'll invest in your restaurant and then two others will open nearby and, ahem, eat your lunch? Yes, that's a risk. With pipelines, you're protected from entry which would compromise your markets through the regulatory process so stranded assets are avoided.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) December 6, 2018
So, part of the price of admission is that you need to show that your pipeline has a market and that it will not be full only at the expense of another regulated asset. Proponents might gripe about that when building, but you know they'll fight tooth and nail to keep the test.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) December 6, 2018
If companies want to pitch a pipeline for approval on the basis that it will have a market because crude is going to be $200/bbl (maybe they read the second Rubin book, not the third or the fourth?), they will be challenged on that. Do the same for climate change.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) December 6, 2018
It turns out that I've come to basically the same conclusion in a different way as I reached when writing a piece about the NEB TMX hearings in 2014. https://t.co/bhkCP0w4kR Then, as now, the climate test should be in the mix and it should be part of the market assessment /END
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) December 6, 2018
By now means is Bill C-69 a perfect bill either, and I’ve spoken to lawyers on both the environmental and proponent sides about their concerns, and they can all point to some of the same concerns, but I also think that the Conservatives’ characterization of it as a “no more pipelines” bill is beyond hyperbolic. If it works as it’s supposed to, the ability to better scope assessments will likely mean more timely actions and targeted consultations thanks to the early engagement that the bill mandates. But trying to cast this bill as a millstone around the country’s economy is ridiculous on the face of it, and withdrawing it won’t miraculously make the oil price differential disappear, or GM to reopen the Oshawa plant, as has been intimated. But far be it for us to expect honest debate on these issues these days.
Good reads:
- It’s the first ministers’ meeting today, and premiers are being drama queens about the agenda. Doug Ford threatened to walk out – Dominic LeBlanc shrugged.
- Trudeau says he’s open to buying rail cars with Rachel Notley, and enhancing EI for laid off energy workers.
- Trudeau also said that he got advance notice of the planned arrest of Huawei’s CFO while she was in Vancouver, but denies any political involvement.
- A BC First Nation chief is demanding an apology from Trudeau, saying his interaction with her this week was patronizing and sexist.
- The government is changing the Canada Summer Jobs grants to drop the attestation in favour of a list of ineligible jobs. (Interview with Patty Hajdu here).
- The government reached an agreement to settle a class action lawsuit by those students who attended Indian Day Schools and suffered abuse there.
- It looks like the government is backing away from any possible handgun ban because of the cost of a buyback programme, but expect more restrictions.
- CSE is launching public awareness campaigns on cyber-crime, and says they expect there will be threats to the next election to try and sway public opinion.
- Documents show that Foreign Affairs was working back channels for months to free Saudi human rights campaigners before that tweet “created” a firestorm.
- General Vance says that the situation in Iraq has reached the “post-shooting” stage and is more into police actions, as Canada decides on our next steps there.
- The Supreme Court of Canada gave a ruling that added more clarity to what constitutes reasonable doubt, at least in impaired driving cases.
- Filings from the Crown in the Mark Norman case paint a picture of someone who leaked information for over a year to subtly control the procurement process.
- Meanwhile, we also learned that the civil servant also accused of leaking information in the Norman case has been suspended from his job.
- The plan to move the military aircraft testing centre from Cold Lake to Ottawa is expected to save money and free up space for the F-18s from Australia.
- Part of the $25 million Canada is sending to Ukraine to support democracy and elections will go toward countering disinformation.
- The new Independent Senator heading the Internal Economy committee wants more in camera meetings. It’s like nobody has learned any lessons.
- Opposition parties wanted to get the Clerk of the Privy Council before the ethics committee to ask questions about Raj Grewal, but were shut down.
- Andrew Scheer got booed by the chiefs at the AFN’s special meeting in Ottawa after he refused to say how he would be different from Stephen Harper.
- BC’s Speaker says he’ll resign if an audit of the activities on the legislature’s Clerk and Sergeant-at-Arms don’t show improprieties.
- Jason Kenney says he regrets blocking the visitation rights of same-sex couples suffering from AIDS in the 1980s (then tries to burnish his record).
- Quebec’s premier signalled that he has no interest in reviving Energy East.
- Colby Cosh gives some sober and needed perspective to the issue of “man camps” that Trudeau inadvertently raised and the Conservatives have been railing over.
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