There’s an interesting conundrum happening in Alberta, where the premier and industry leaders are talking about production cuts owing to the supply glut and lack of refining capacity in the US being responsible for near-record lows for Canadian exports. The problem of course is whether the premier should use powers that haven’t been exercised since the days of Peter Lougheed, or if oil companies should voluntarily reduce their own production – and if they do, does this constitute price-fixing? There isn’t any easy solution to any of this, and it’s not just build more pipelines – they would only need to be pipelines to tidewater in order to find markets not hampered by the current refining shutdowns in the US, and that are prepared to take heavy oil and diluted bitumen. It’s also a bit on the unfair side to say that it’s simply “regulatory and political” challenges – as we’ve seen from successive court decisions is that attempts to take shortcuts and to weasel out of obligations is what’s causing delays and to have permits revoked. In other words, part of the problem is self-inflicted, and they try to hand-wave around it by crying “national interest” as though that makes it better.
Here’s a lengthy but good explanatory thread from Josh Wingrove, and it’s well worth paying attention to, because there’s a lot of demagoguery floating around about the issue, and it pays to be informed about why prices are low, and why it’s not something you can wave a magic wand to fix.
https://twitter.com/josh_wingrove/status/1062817943812218894
How bad is it? Bad. On Labour Day, a barrel Canadian heavy oil was selling for $45 U.S. (down already from $55 in July).
Now, it's selling for $15.75. A drop of two-thirds in two-and-a-half months. pic.twitter.com/NLIIETzVxp— Josh Wingrove (@josh_wingrove) November 14, 2018
This came to a head last month when Rachel Notley, the Alberta premier, led a closed-door meeting that hinged largely on the issue, sources tell me. It basically pitted oil producers against "integrated" ones that also have transport and refining capacity.
— Josh Wingrove (@josh_wingrove) November 14, 2018
Also out of luck is Alberta — royalties are obviously much lower when prices are low. It's desperate times already for the Alberta treasury and this isn't helping.
— Josh Wingrove (@josh_wingrove) November 14, 2018
Of course, looming large in all of this is a feeling of we-wouldn't-be-in-this-mess-if-we'd-gotten-another-big-pipeline. KXL, TransMountain, Gateway, Energy East, whatever. No new pipes + loads of new production = problem.
— Josh Wingrove (@josh_wingrove) November 14, 2018
Advocates of a forced cut say it would be temporary — maybe only a few months. Wait until supply levels come down and storage space opens up and maybe the price plunge stops. Maybe prices even recover.
— Josh Wingrove (@josh_wingrove) November 14, 2018
Imperial Oil opposes intervention, we're told. Their CEO said this month: “Our view is you live with the consequences of your decisions in your investments and we're quite happy that we are an integrated and a balanced company.''
— Josh Wingrove (@josh_wingrove) November 14, 2018
In the meantime, companies are already cutting production on their own. That'll be pretty messy, and brutal. Whomever has the highest-cost barrels will be forced to take them offline, cut production, probably cut jobs.
— Josh Wingrove (@josh_wingrove) November 14, 2018
In the meantime, regardless of what you think about WHETHER Canada should sell oil, it's selling oil at a near-record discount to U.S. prices, which are falling themselves.
Doesn't look to be an easy fix.
— Josh Wingrove (@josh_wingrove) November 14, 2018
Good reads:
- Justin Trudeau met with the Chinese premier at the ASEAN summit, and advanced some trade files without any comprehensive trade talks.
- Chrystia Freeland is shrugging off concerns that House Democrats will try to force changes to the New NAFTA deal, saying she won’t meddle in ratification.
- With reports that the Ontario government plans gimmicks to push back against federal carbon taxes, Dominic LeBlanc throws some shade in response.
- The government’s promised new Indigenous rights framework legislation isn’t going to happen before the election after all, thanks to First Nations pushback.
- The NSICOP is without Conservative MPs as they haven’t replaced Gord Brown after his death, and now Tony Clement is out. (CPC Senator Vern White is still there).
- The government has named an Afghan war veteran as the new Veterans’ Ombudsman.
- None of the promised government funds to help struggling news media organisations has actually been spent.
- Canadians emit the highest GHGs in the G20, but hey, no need for us to take any definitive climate action!
- NASA is meeting with Canadian officials to talk future robotics for the Lunar Gateway station and manned moon missions.
- Canada Post is suddenly trying to resolve its labour dispute in advance of Black Friday sales.
- Here’s a look at public servants fired thanks to whistleblower legislation, and boy howdy, there’s a lot of attempts to hire relatives and spouses.
- Peter MacKay and Lisa Raitt are going through the motions of insisting they wish that they knew that child killers got transferred to healing lodges under their watch.
- The Conservative Party’s investigation into the handling of sexual assault allegations against Rick Dykstra is nearly ready, yet faces perception issues.
- If you’re still interested, it seems that Tony Clement’s former mistress was offered $1000 per explicit photo of him by a group of women claiming Liberal support.
- Colby Cosh offers us his trademark acid take on the failed Calgary Olympic plebiscite.
- Chantal Hébert looks at Maxime Bernier’s attempts to play contrarian-in-chief, and doesn’t find him gaining any traction, particularly in Quebec.
- Andrew Coyne isn’t convinced that the carbon tax will be the deciding factor in the next federal election.
Odds and ends:
Prince Charles turned 70, and released new family photos as part of the festivities.
Two new photographs of The Prince of Wales and his family have been released to celebrate HRH’s 70th birthday.
The photos were taken by Chris Jackson in the garden of Clarence House. pic.twitter.com/A2LTJDTdvE
— Clarence House (@ClarenceHouse) November 13, 2018
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We won’t see MacKay, Raitt or Strahl offering any apologies to the government for their “uneducated” histrionics in the HOC over the healing lodges. As usual they rely on obfuscation, prevarication and seemingly an unending supply of Teflon all supported by their base.