Roundup: On lying with statistics

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Over the weekend, Andrew Scheer tweeted that there was “devastating” job news released on Friday, with “zero total jobs created” in April, and that 41,400 jobs had been lost so far this year. Investment is apparently being driven away from the country. It’s all doom and ruins. Except that it’s all complete bullshit. It’s lying with statistics.

What do the actual figures show? For starters, unemployment has been at a 40-year low for the past several months at 5.8 percent. This while the participation rate and employment rate have remained relatively steady throughout. Those “devastating” numbers in April were a net loss of 1,100 jobs, but that net showed a loss of 30,000 part-time jobs and an increase of 28,800 full-time jobs, and industry-wise, the losses were mostly in either construction or retail and wholesale trade. Wages have been increasing over 3 percent year-over-year for several months now. And yes, there was a brief correction in job numbers in January, but it was after a spike in November and December, while the trend cycle remains upward. And if you ask any credible economist, they’ll tell you the underlying numbers indicate that the economy is strong, which puts a lie to Scheer’s tweets.

Of course, I tweeted that Scheer was wrong over the weekend, and I was bombarded with apologists insisting that we should really be looking at the US unemployment rate, which is 3.9 percent. Err, except the Americans use a different measure, and if we used that same measure, our rate would be 4.9 percent. I was also told that all of these new jobs were part-time (not true – as explained above, they’re mostly full-time jobs displacing part-time ones, and have been for several months now), or that this is all because people have run out of EI and have stopped looking for work (please see: participation rate). Oh, and then there were the anecdotes being thrown my way as “proof” that those figures are wrong. Because anecdotes trump statistical data, as we all know. The data are all there. Scheer’s particular cherry-picking is ludicrous on its face, but he’s counting on the low-information voter not having enough know-how to look up the figures at StatsCan, or to read some actual economic analysis about how yes, the economy is doing quite well right now and we can expect interest rates to start going up as a result. It seems to me that if they were in government and an opposition party was doing the same thing he was doing, they would be howling about how awful it was that the opposition was talking down our economy. Funny how that is.

Good reads:

  • Justin Trudeau called the by-election in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord shortly after announcing a $60 million investment in the aluminium smelter in the riding.
  • The government is stepping up on-site inspections of businesses that employ temporary foreign workers after the AG complained of a lack of oversight.
  • Shared Services Canada just signed the largest sole-source contract in government history with IBM, for the delivery of 16 new mainframes.
  • Jaspal Atwal of the eponymous Atwal Affair™ has been charged with uttering threats.
  • Following hearings, a federal judge has approved an $875 million settlement for Sixties Scoop survivors.
  • While the Conservatives are railing about the voter identification parts of the new election bill, here is a reminder that rumours of voter fraud are never substantiated.
  • The former Chief Electoral Officer says that bill may still not be passed in time to make all of the changes in advance of the next election.
  • Andrew Scheer says he talked to Ted Falk about his anti-abortion outburst…but won’t say just what they discussed. (Does that not invite speculation?)
  • A former Bloc leader says he’s no longer a Separatist and is now a Conservative (but won’t run for them in the next election). Scheer hopes to convert more Bloc voters.
  • NDP MP Christine Moore denies the allegations of sexual misconduct and plans to sue both Glen Kirkland and the columnists who wrote about it.
  • Meanwhile, there are questions as to why the NDP is struggling to get any traction during the last parliamentary session. (Maybe because their leader is absent?)
  • Amarnath Amarasingam and Stephanie Carvin discuss the definition of terrorism in light of various incidents and why they may not fit the definition.
  • My weekend column looked at how Senator Peter Harder is more concerned with Senate modernization than he is with the very full Order Paper in front of him.

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