The mounting speculation in BC is now starting to focus on the race for Speaker in the legislature – or rather, the lack of a race. Word has it that the Liberals plan on putting no one forward, and the NDP/Greens are making similar noises as well. The lack of a Speaker could mean that the legislature winds up being dissolved and heading back to an election, as precedent from Newfoundland would indicate. But if, by some miracle, the Lieutenant Governor manages to cajole the legislature into at least trying to attempt to elect a Speaker (by trying to avoid a new election at all costs), then there is the possible situation that the Liberals could put forward one of their own, and if Clark is defeated on a confidence vote, have that Speaker then resign and force the NDP to put forward one of their own, which again shifts the balance to 43-43, and possibly hastening the demise of a possible NDP government.

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/870105194268209152

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/870105727964139520

What this means is that Christy Clark is not out of cards to play yet, and that no these are not tricks or games – they’re legitimate exercises of parliamentary authority, and I cannot stress enough that Clark is a very skilled retail politician. She has made the right moves about sounding like she’s willing to do a spell in opposition, and that she’s not looking to go to an election right away, but she can very easily turn around and say that she tried to be reasonable and they didn’t take yes for an answer on any number of issues, and the deadlock would quickly turn into dissolution where she has an NDP-Green agenda laid out before her that she can pick apart in an election campaign. Any suggestion that she simply bow out gracefully and turn over the keys remains premature, and the insistence that an NDP government is inevitable is counting chickens before they’ve hatched. Just because most of the pundit class doesn’t have an understanding of how the system works and the options available to Clark, doesn’t mean that she’s done for. I suspect there will be many surprises left to come, all sold with her skill and charm.

Meanwhile, Clarks’ former press secretary notes that the deal the Green signed actually weakened their ability to exert influence. Andrew Coyne pens a satirical letter from “political strategists” offering cynical (but not necessarily wrong) advice. Colby Cosh looks at the looming Speaker drama and the many other hurdles that would wreck an NDP government, giving it 22 months.

Good reads:

• Justin Trudeau may have called Donald Trump on his unsecured cell phone. Apparently this is now a Thing.
• While Trump is threatening to pull out of the Paris Accords on climate, Catherine McKenna assures everyone that Canada remains committed.
• The government is due to unveil an $860 million aid package for the softwood lumber industry while they try to get an agreement with the Americans.
• At a defence contractor event, Harjit Sajjan took more shots at Boeing over their trade complaint regarding Bombardier.
• Apparently, the firearms marking regulations are delayed until 2018 because the planned marking system will no longer be effective.
• Conservatives in the Senate are looking to amend the anthem bill, which others say would kill the bill because it would need a new sponsor in the Commons.
• The premier of Quebec is planning coast-to-coast talks about re-opening the constitution to get recognition of Quebec as a distinct society.
• Scandal! Two members of Mélanie Joly’s staff who had nothing to do with the language commissioner appointment used to work for Madeleine Meilleur!
• Here’s a look at unpaid parliamentary interns and the controversy around it (though the example here did get a full-time position out of it).
• Paul Wells has a fascinating long read about the rise of Andrew Scheer and the state of the Conservative Party.
• John Geddes takes note of Andrew Scheer comparing himself to Diefenbaker and cautions him to learn from history instead of using it for vapid anecdotes.
• Stephanie Carvin writes about the long-term damage (including for Canada) of Trump’s foreign policy ineptitude.
• Susan Delacourt sees lessons for the post-2019 federal landscape.

Odds and ends:

In their continued refusal to take yes for an answer, the Conservatives are planning to debate a motion on Kinder Morgan today.