The NDP released their “costed” fiscal plan yesterday, which was not in fact the full costing that they had promised, but rather a broad-strokes framework, full of vague line item names like “Helping Families Get Ahead” and “Help Where It’s Needed Most” rather than actually talking about their childcare plan, and their promises around the healthcare escalator. (That escalator, incidentally, has confused a lot of reporters in the room). It’s kind of ironic that after a week spent baiting the Liberals on releasing their costed platform, the NDP didn’t actually deliver theirs. Suffice to say, the analysis to date seems to be that the NDP platform relies on the Budget 2015 numbers – numbers which are no longer relevant as the price of oil has crashed even further, and GDP growth is nowhere near what was projected and likely won’t be anytime soon, which blows a hole of several billion dollars into the assumptions. It also relies on the same austerity that the Conservative budget is built upon, despite what the NDP insists. The Conservatives and Liberals immediately panned the document, but that’s not a surprise. Being as I’m not an economist, I’ll leave the comments for those who are, and they have plenty to say (with some background on how to read these kinds of documents from Kevin Milligan here):
https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/644266217994215424
https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/644266726171869184
https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/644267141714149376
https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/644267656929918976
https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/644268654381563904
https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/644269099938283520
https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/644269679876288512
https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/644270215551848448
It’s the quality of the jobs that’s affected: at higher tax rates, less investment, less capital/worker, lower productivity, lower wages.
— Andrew Coyne 🇺🇦🇮🇱🇬🇪🇲🇩 (@acoyne) September 16, 2015
@acoyne If full employment wages fall with CIT increase. My estimate based on disequilibrium GE model with bigger job impact.
— Dr. Jack Mintz (@jackmintz) September 16, 2015
https://twitter.com/mikepmoffatt/status/644306950700724224
Anyone looking at that list of NDP revenue measures is almost certainly going to say "No skin off my nose"
— Stephen Gordon (@stephenfgordon) September 17, 2015
NDP program is not a rebellion against anti-tax sentiment; it's buying into it.
— Stephen Gordon (@stephenfgordon) September 17, 2015
No-one is going to vote NDP saying to themselves, "Okay, I'll pay more in taxes, but I'm willing to pay the price"
— Stephen Gordon (@stephenfgordon) September 17, 2015
The NDP is selling a free lunch: We will raise taxes you don't have to pay, and we'll use them to buy you these goodies
— Stephen Gordon (@stephenfgordon) September 17, 2015
So any narrative that sells support for the NDP as a rejection of the CPC has got it wrong. NDP is appealing to the same anti-tax sentiment
— Stephen Gordon (@stephenfgordon) September 17, 2015
https://twitter.com/rolandparis/status/644332078855815168
NDP detail on daycare? @RosieBarton asks @thomson_ndp for the numbers (with @MichelleRempel & @JohnMcCallumLPC too) http://t.co/OszzPVZqs4
— Leslie Stojsic (@LeslieStojsic) September 16, 2015
Note to self: memorize all line by line expenditures before next @PnPCBC. FYI # is $595M in Y1 rising to $2.5B in Y4 @LeslieCBC @RosieBarton
— Andrew Thomson (@Thomson416) September 17, 2015
On the campaign:
- The three leaders where busy with debate prep, but Thomas Mulcair and Justin Trudeau did meet with Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi.
- Justin Trudeau did hold an event in Calgary to talk about infrastructure spending.
- Here is the Wednesday campaign roundup.
Good reads:
- It seems the Conservatives tried to make a deal with the National Firearms Association to get them to back off their C-51 criticisms – then reneged.
- Elizabeth May won’t be at tonight’s debate, but she will be responding over the Twitter Machine.
- Here’s a reality check on whether Stephen Harper is really an economist.
- The Conservatives are going to appeal the niqab ban ruling to the Supreme Court of Canada (where it will certainly be dismissed with costs).
- There are signs that the government is looking to use some retired visa officers to help with the Syrian refugee situation.
- The Canadian Press’ Baloney Meter™ looks at Trudeau’s talking points on Conservative deficits. (Spoiler: A lot of baloney).
- Susan Delacourt writes about the niqab ban as a not-so-veiled pitch for the anti-Muslim vote.
- David Reevely talks about how bitter nomination feuds can matter in tight races, but is utterly uncritical about David Bertschi, who broke the rules in his leadership bid.
- Andrew Coyne lists things that won’t be discussed at tonight’s economic debate, but should be.
Odds and ends:
The Liberals have lost an Alberta candidate over “irreconcilable statements.”
Independent Progressive Conservative Senator Elaine McCoy has repaid her flagged expenses, despite still feeling they were proper.