So there we have it – StatsCan says two quarters of negative growth, which means a “technical” or “statutory” recession. And in case you were wondering, manufacturing was also shrinking, so it’s not just confined to the energy sector (though a lot of Ontario’s manufacturing is now geared to the energy sector). Stephen Harper and Joe Oliver tried to keep the spin on the positive – growth in June, that surplus in the Fiscal Monitor (that may prove illusory). See! Things are on the rebound! Of course, things aren’t so simple, what with some increased consumer spending and employment, and there is a great deal of debate about what it all means (or even if it is a “real” recession, rather than one that meets the statutory definition, which always brings me back to Mike Moffatt’s term “pornographic recession” – knowing one when you see it). Regardless, it’s going to keep things interesting on the campaign trail as parties sharpen their messages over the data. BuzzFeed has a simple guide to what the recession means, while here is a roundup of what the leaders said about it on the campaign trail.
https://twitter.com/mikepmoffatt/status/638702391005589505
Why I'm not giddy over June's healthy growth: you can't rebound from wildfires every month. Duh.
— Luke Kawa (@LJKawa) September 1, 2015
@Justin_Ling Maybe too optimistic. Our competitors' $ also drop vs USD. But some non-energy exports are picking up: autos, food, etc.
— Jacquie Palladini (@J_Palladini) September 1, 2015
https://twitter.com/mikepmoffatt/status/638714053142179841
Employment and monthly GDP over first 6 months of 2014 and in first 6 months of the last recession pic.twitter.com/hB2AlkTLGp
— Stephen Gordon (@stephenfgordon) September 1, 2015
On the campaign:
- Stephen Harper promised an “advanced manufacturing hub” in Burlington, while deflecting from recession questions.
- Thomas Mulcair pledged support for wine tourism in the Okanagan Valley (never mind that he only drinks New Zealand wines), and said corporate taxes would increase “reasonably.”
- Justin Trudeau used the economic figures to say that his is the only honest platform, before he too headed to a Tim Horton’s for a photo-op.
- Gilles Duceppe says there’s still time for Bloc fortunes to turn around.
- Here’s a roundup of the leaders’ stops on Tuesday.
Good reads:
- Kady O’Malley goes through that infamous speech that Mike Duffy made in the Senate in his defence, and checks it against evidence in court.
- O’Malley also trawls through Access to Information requests that come up blank, some of them mysteriously.
- With all of the talk about recessions and deficits, everyone wonders why Joe Oliver has been largely absent from the national campaign.
- Justin Trudeau defends his special tax credit for schoolteachers.
- Here’s a look at what it’s like if you’re a candidate and the PM drops by your place for a photo op.
- There are some interesting shenanigans around a former Liberal fundraiser who is now working for the Conservative Parm Gill.
- Jonathan Kay assembles five other Jewish journalists to discuss partisanship in their community, which is a fascinating (if long) read.
- Robyn Urback takes note of Thomas Mulcair’s tendency to promise everything under the sun.
Odds and ends:
The RCMP has laid international charges against the Syrian intelligence officer who tortured Maher Arar.
While the news is that the RCMP have handed Pamela Wallin’s file to the Public Prosecutor in order to lay charges, her lawyer says he hasn’t heard anything yet.